Time to vote: Who leads Trump vs Harris race? Which way will Swing States lean?

Less than 48 hours left until polls close in the United States and a new president is elected. Americans will be lining up to vote at polling booths tomorrow. But a lot of them have already voted. More than 77 million of them have already voted through early voting. In the US, one can request a ballot by mail, select a candidate, and then drop it off in ballot boxes, or even mail them via postal services. More than 77 million Americans have done so — around 48 per cent of the total turnout in the last election. So clearly, early voting is the future.

In 2020, the Democrats dominated this field, but this time, Republicans have caught up. Mainly because Donald Trump has changed his position. Last time he opposed early voting. This time he’s supporting it. Around 38 per cent of early voting has been done by Democrats, and Republicans are at 36.2 per cent. So the gap is pretty narrow.

As per opinion polls, Kamala Harris has a narrow edge over Trump in the national polls; that doesn’t matter. It comes down to the electoral college. To the seven swing states.

Harris is leading in Nevada by three points; she is leading in North Carolina by two points; in Wisconsin by two points; in Georgia by one point; in Pennsylvania and Michigan things are even; and in Arizona, Trump leads by four points. These numbers make a couple of things clear.

First, Harris has found some new momentum. Apparently, last-minute undecided voters are picking her. And second, Trump is also consolidating. Harris may hold the edge among early voters, but on Tuesday, it’s all about in-person voting.

That remains Trump’s core. This brings us to the campaigns. Both Harris and Trump are hitting the swing states. Harris spent a lot of time in Michigan. Meanwhile, Trump spoke in North Carolina and Georgia. Most voters must have already made up their minds, so it’s all about the finishing touches.

Harris focused on the Muslim vote. Michigan is home to around 200 thousand Arab-Americans. They put Joe Biden over the line in 2020. But this time, it’s not a guarantee; Arab-Americans are angry about Biden’s support for Israel, and Harris may pay the price for it. She tried to do some damage control on Sunday. She promised to end the Gaza war if elected.

Beyond that, she stuck to the script; she accused Trump of dividing America. She promised to fight hate politics and to resolve the cost-of-living crisis. Strange it is, because she’s already the vice president, and that’s been a struggle for Harris. She is a member of the current administration, and the current administration is deeply unpopular. Biden’s approval ratings are at 39 per cent. So Harris finds herself in a spot of bother. Neither can she criticise her own government nor can she embrace it. So Harris has opted for a middle ground. She isn’t calling for new leadership. She’s calling for a new generation of leadership.

On the other side, Trump did what he does. He held a number of rallies on Sunday. Most of them had the same theme that America is a broken country and only he can fix it. It’s a strategy that worked for him in 2016. It’s finding even more takers this time around, particularly because of the cost-of-living crisis. Trump’s campaign is mostly centred around two issues — tariffs and immigration.

Trump also trained his guns on pollsters and journalists. Trump was surrounded by bulletproof glass at a rally, but those glasses had gaps. Trump said he wasn’t worried though, because to get to him, an assassin would have to shoot through the press corps, and Trump says he doesn’t mind that.

Trump also took issue with a new poll. It says Harris is leading him in the state of Iowa. The poll has surprised a lot of people because Iowa voted for Trump in 2016 and again in 2020. The last Democrat to flip it was Barack Obama. If Harris can do that, it would be a big setback to Trump.

Of course, his campaigners have rejected the poll. They say it’s an attempt to demoralise voters, and frankly, there’s a lot of that going around this time, especially on social media where hundreds of posts are spreading fake news about the elections. Most of them are Trump supporters, but some are Democrats too. They are doing this to destroy the credibility of the election process.

Around 70 per cent Americans think Trump will not concede if he loses. That he will question the results like last time. His supporters are laying the groundwork for that. Especially Elon Musk and X, Musk is the most followed person on his platform, and he is pushing fake news. Musk says Democrats are making illegal migrants vote. He also said if Trump isn’t elected, this will be the last US election—again, all fake news. Of course, if Trump wins, none of this will matter, but if he doesn’t, expect nervous days for America.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.