 "The Yunus Paradox: Nobel laureate’s peaceful vision vs the growing fundamentalism in Bangladesh")
Bangladesh is currently experiencing a historic political shift. Following weeks of intense anti-government protests, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country, leading to the formation of an interim government. The protests, initially sparked by calls to abolish civil service job quotas, escalated into demands for Hasina’s resignation after her 15-year tenure.
The unrest culminated in her departure amid reports of looting and disorder in the capital, Dhaka. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is expected to steer the country through this tumultuous period. The army chief, Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman, who announced Hasina’s resignation, is involved in negotiations with key players, including student protest coordinators and civil society groups, to restore order and trust in society.
This transitional phase aims to prepare Bangladesh for new elections and address the political crisis that has gripped the nation. The current government’s structure is designed to be temporary, with the ultimate goal of returning to a democratically elected government following the upcoming general elections.
The recent appointment of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the interim Prime Minister of Bangladesh has sent ripples through the region, drawing both applause and apprehension. To many, Yunus embodies hope, an emblem of peace and economic innovation.
Yet, beneath this veneer of optimism lies a complex and potentially perilous reality that India cannot afford to ignore. The ascent of the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, a party with deep-rooted ties to militancy and a vision of an Islamic state, casts a long shadow over this transition.
For India, this development is far from a cause for celebration. The secular fabric that has long underpinned Bangladesh’s polity—a cornerstone of its amicable relationship with India—now faces an existential threat. The Jamaat’s resurgence could herald a shift towards conservatism and anti-India sentiment, unravelling decades of carefully nurtured bilateral ties.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe spectre of historical tensions looms large, particularly given Jamaat-e-Islami’s notorious involvement in the atrocities against Bengali freedom fighters and the Hindu community during the liberation war. A revival of such dark chapters could exacerbate old wounds, leading to a deterioration in relations that neither nation can afford.
Moreover, the implications for Bangladesh’s Hindu minority are dire. Reports of violence and the exodus of Hindus seeking refuge in India during times of unrest have already strained India’s resources. An empowered Jamaat-e-Islami could escalate this humanitarian crisis, forcing India to grapple with an influx of refugees while managing the domestic fallout.
In this uncertain landscape, Yunus’s leadership, though promising in the short term, may struggle to navigate the turbulent waters ahead. If Islamist influence continues to grow, it could steer Bangladesh towards a political direction fraught with challenges for India—from security concerns to regional stability.
Rising Tide of Islamism
Bangladesh, once a bastion of secularism in South Asia, is witnessing an unsettling drift towards Islamism—a transformation with far-reaching consequences, especially for India. The creeping influence of Islamist forces in Bangladeshi politics is not just a domestic issue; it’s a regional concern that threatens to destabilise the delicate balance of power and harmony in the subcontinent.
Under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh maintained a semblance of secular governance, albeit one increasingly strained by the rising tide of Islamic conservatism. Hasina, despite her efforts to curb extremist elements, has not been immune to the pressures of a society gradually shifting towards Islamist ideologies. The controversial trial and execution of war criminals, many of whom were linked to the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party, was a double-edged sword—on one hand, a bold move to assert secular justice; on the other, it fuelled a backlash that emboldened Islamist narratives and deepened anti-India sentiment.
This growing Islamisation is not just a challenge to Bangladesh’s secular identity but also a strategic concern for India. The surge in Islamist influence is often accompanied by anti-India rhetoric, as seen in the rising hostility towards India in political and public discourse. This shift threatens to unravel the strong bilateral relations nurtured under Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, especially in areas like trade, security, and regional cooperation.
For India, the prospect of an Islamist-leaning Bangladesh is a security nightmare. The potential for increased radicaliation, cross-border terrorism, and a deteriorating situation for the Hindu minority in Bangladesh could strain India’s resources and compromise regional stability. As Bangladesh moves further down this path, India must brace itself for a challenging phase in its neighbourhood diplomacy, one where the stakes are higher and the risks more profound.
Rise of Jamat
In the intricate web of South Asian politics, the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) in Bangladesh is a development that demands close scrutiny, particularly from India. This Islamist party, with its radical ideology and a history stained by violence, is not merely a local phenomenon; it is a geopolitical tremor that could have profound implications for regional stability.
JeI’s resurgence is alarming, given its deep-rooted connections to militancy and its unwavering vision of establishing an Islamic state. The party has been increasingly active in orchestrating anti-government movements and stoking anti-Indian sentiments, marking a troubling escalation in its activities. This revival serves as a grim reminder of JeI’s collaboration with the Pakistan Army during Bangladesh’s Liberation War and its long-standing opposition to the secular ideals that have underpinned the India-Bangladesh relationship. The reemergence of such a force is not just a challenge to Bangladesh’s internal cohesion but also a significant threat to India.
For India, the rise of JeI is a harbinger of potential instability. The party’s alignment with radical ideologies and its history of providing safe haven to terrorists, including operatives from Lashkar-e-Taiba, directly threaten India’s security. The looming threat of cross-border terrorism and increased radicalisation could disrupt the fragile peace that has been maintained in the region, posing a clear danger to India’s national security.
Recent events highlight JeI’s growing influence and capacity for disruption. Violent protests led by JeI’s student wing, which resulted in over 400 deaths, underscore the party’s ability to mobilise and incite violence. The targeted attacks on Hindu minorities and the destruction of cultural symbols during these protests expose the extremist currents that JeI represents.
Shifting Alliances in South Asia
The shifting dynamics of South Asia are presenting India with an increasingly complex strategic landscape as political upheaval in Bangladesh and growing ties between China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka converge to challenge New Delhi’s regional influence. The recent crisis in Bangladesh, marked by the ousting of the pro-India Sheikh Hasina government and the rise of an interim administration under Muhammad Yunus, has fundamentally altered the country’s political terrain. This transition is occurring against a backdrop of increasing Chinese influence, signalling a broader geopolitical realignment that India cannot afford to ignore.
The political vacuum left by Sheikh Hasina’s departure has created an opportunity for external powers to exert influence. The rise of Jamaat-e-Islami, a group historically hostile to India, further complicates this scenario, raising concerns about the future direction of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Meanwhile, the growing camaraderie between China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka is forming a formidable axis that presents a direct challenge to India’s strategic interests.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has already made significant inroads in South Asia, with Pakistan and Sri Lanka as key partners. The potential inclusion of Bangladesh in this nexus would represent a significant shift in regional dynamics, effectively encircling India with a string of nations aligned with Chinese interests. This development threatens to undermine India’s strategic autonomy, particularly in the maritime domain. The prospect of increased Chinese military presence in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean could pose a serious threat to India’s maritime security, altering the balance of power in the region.
In conclusion, the political crisis in Bangladesh and the strengthening China-Pakistan-Bangladesh-Sri Lanka axis mark a critical juncture for India’s strategic interests. Navigating this new geopolitical terrain requires a nuanced and proactive foreign policy as India seeks to maintain its influence in an increasingly competitive South Asia.
The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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