The risks of ballistic missile use in Ukraine and West Asia

President Vladimir Putin confirmed that among rising tensions created by the US and UK clearing their supplied missiles for long-range strikes into Russia, Moscow tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) named ‘Oreshnik’ in an assault on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Till now, Washington had banned Ukraine from using high-precision Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets in Russia.

Joe Biden, the outgoing US president, had recently reversed that decision and given the green light to Ukraine. Moscow said six US-made ATACMS missiles were launched at Russia on November 19, and Anglo-French MBDA Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG cruise missiles and US-made HIMARS were fired at the country on November 21. Moscow said this makes Western countries direct participants in the conflict. The Russian missile was known to have multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capability.

What are ballistic and cruise missiles?

Ballistic missiles are powered initially by a rocket or series of rockets in stages, but then follow an unpowered trajectory that arches upwards before descending to reach its intended target. Ballistic missiles can carry either nuclear or conventional warheads. There are four general classifications of ballistic missiles based on their range, or the maximum distance the missile can travel. These are short-range “tactical” (less than 1,000 kilometres); medium-range “theatre” (1,000 to 3,000 kilometres); intermediate-range (3,000 to 5,500 kilometres); and long-range, ICBMs, or strategic ballistic missiles (more than 5,500 kilometres).

Ballistic missiles have three stages of flight: The boost phase begins at launch and lasts until the rocket engine(s) stop firing and the missile begins unpowered flight. Depending on the missile, the boost phase can last three to five minutes. Most of this phase takes place in the atmosphere. The midcourse phase begins after the rocket(s) stop firing. The missile continues to ascend toward the highest point in its trajectory and then begins to descend toward Earth. This is the longest phase of a missile’s flight, and for ICBMs, it can last around 20 minutes. During the midcourse phase, ICBMs can travel around 24,000 kilometres per hour. Re-entry to the Earth’s atmosphere is at very high velocities, on the order of 6–8 kilometres per second (22,000–29,000 km/h). The terminal phase begins when the detached warhead(s) re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere and ends upon impact or detonation. This phase can last for less than a minute. Internal computers keep the missile aligned on a pre-programmed trajectory.

Many ballistic missiles reach hypersonic speeds (i.e., Mach 5 and above) when they re-enter the atmosphere from space. However, the term “hypersonic ballistic missile” is generally only given to those that can be manoeuvred before hitting their target and don’t follow a simple ballistic trajectory.

The missiles with the world’s heaviest payloads are the Russian SS-18 and Chinese CSS-4, and as of 2017, Russia has developed a new heavy-lift, liquid-propellant ICBM called the Sarmat. Other ICBMs include the LGM-30 Minuteman III, Russian RS-24 “Yars” and R-36 (SS-18), Chinese DF-31 and DF-41, North Korean Hwasong-18, India’s Agni-V and Agni-VI, Israel’s Jericho III, among many others. Countries like Iran have IRBMs with ranges of up to 1,500 kilometres.

Cruise missiles are unmanned vehicles that are propelled by jet engines, much like an airplane. They can be launched from ground, air, or sea platforms. Cruise missiles remain within the atmosphere for the duration of their flight and can fly as low as a few meters off the ground. Flying low to the surface of the earth expends more fuel but makes a cruise missile very difficult to detect. Cruise missiles are self-guided and use multiple methods to accurately deliver their payload, including terrain mapping, global positioning systems (GPS), and inertial guidance, which uses motion sensors and gyroscopes to keep the missile on a pre-programmed flight path. As advanced cruise missiles approach their target, remote operators can use a camera in the nose of the missile to see what the missile sees. This gives them the option to manually guide the missile to its target or to abort the strike.

What is MIRV?

The MIRVs were developed to permit a missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to different targets. These warheads can be released from the missile at different speeds and in different directions. Some MIRVed missiles can hit targets as far as 1,500 kilometres apart. Russia has a MIRV missile under development that can carry up to 16 warheads. MIRVs are much more difficult to defend against than traditional missiles and are considered effective ballistic missile defence (BMD) countermeasures.

The development of MIRV technology is not easy. It requires the combination of large missiles, small warheads, accurate guidance, and a complex mechanism for releasing warheads sequentially during flight. The United States was the first country to develop MIRV technology in 1970. The Soviet Union had a similar capability by the end 1970s. The United Kingdom, France, and China have MIRVed ICBMs. India tested its MIRV capability on the ‘Agni V’ missile in March 2024. Though India has a “No First Use” nuclear policy, its MIRV test caused alarm about a potential “first-strike” instrument in New Delhi’s inventory. Indian analysts feel that India’s MIRV test aims to make a qualitative technological advance to catch up with and increase deterrence against China and strengthen the no-first-use doctrine.

North Korea and Pakistan are both experimenting with MIRV technologies and could soon have such capability. In fact, North Korea did announce in June 2024 that it had successfully tested a multi-warhead missile. The US assessment is that it was a premature statement. The MIRV is a new arms race, and the growing MIRV club is a globally worrisome nuclear arsenal trend. And could drastically reduce crisis reaction instability.

Possession and possible use of MIRVs with nuclear payloads have very significant deterrence dynamics. MIRVs make great first-strike and second-strike weapons and therefore will be the first to be targeted by an adversary. If a first-strike attack were to destroy a nation’s MIRVed missiles, “that nation’s ability to retaliate would be disproportionately damaged”.

Advantage hypersonic and MIRV

Weapons travelling at hypersonic speed give little time for reaction to air defence systems. If the weapon is manoeuvrable, then it is difficult to ascertain the targeted destination. MIRV can hit multiple targets largely spaced apart, complicating defences. Some decoy missiles could also be launched to confuse the adversary and reduce chances of interception of the main warheads. It would be very expensive to maintain a viable defence against MIRVs. Ukraine’s claims of having shot down many hypersonic Kinzhal missiles are highly questionable.

The MIRV - Oreshnik

The Russian hypersonic ‘Oreshnik’ missile is based on the “RS-26 Rubezh” ICBM. It can carry six warheads. Videos posted to social media showed the missile breaking into six warheads. Kyiv claimed that Russia had used the ICBM along with a barrage of other missiles at Dnipro.

Putin said that even the modern air defences cannot intercept the Oreshnik. Putin also stated that Russia will “address the question of further deployment of intermediate and shorter-range missiles based on the actions of the United States and its satellites (friends in Europe)”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow was in “no doubt” that Washington had understood that the strike on Dnipro was a warning. Such actions cannot remain without a reaction from the Russian side, he added.

The director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists said, “To my knowledge, yes, it’s the first time MIRV has been used in combat”. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate said it was fired from the 4th Missile Test Range, Kapustin Yar, in Russia’s Astrakhan region and flew 15 minutes before striking Dnipro. Much weakened, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of a “clear escalation”.

NATO reaction

NATO held an emergency meeting with Ukraine at the alliance headquarters in Brussels immediately to discuss Moscow’s use of the missile. The NATO Ukraine Council is a grouping of NATO ambassadors and their Ukrainian counterparts. Both Moscow and NATO have so-called ‘red lines’ that could trigger outright war between them if crossed. Biden’s last-minute permission to strike deep inside Russia had actually divided Europe. Britain and France have long insisted on a more aggressive posture, but Germany refused to give Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The Russians reaction was known, but the ballistic missile attack sent shockwaves across the world and rattled strategists and nuclear experts.

Anti-Ballistic Missile System

An anti-ballistic missile (ABM) is a surface-to-air missile designed to counter ballistic missiles (missile defence). The term “anti-ballistic missile” is a generic term for a system designed to intercept and destroy any type of ballistic threat; however, it is commonly used for systems specifically designed to counter intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). American Ground-Based Midcourse Defence (GMD) system, Israel’s Arrow 3, Russian A-135 ABM system, and the Indian Prithvi Defence Vehicle Mark 2 are some examples. The THAAD, or Aegis, or Patriot defences provide shorter-range defence against incoming projectiles. Many American systems are placed for the defence of Europe and also South Korea and Japan. Russia’s S-500 and the US’ Integrated Air and Missile Defence Battle Command System (IBCS) are among the latest systems.

The Aster is a family of missiles jointly developed by France and Italy, capable of ballistic missile defence. France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands, the HYDIS (HYpersonic Defence Interceptor Study) was announced on June 20, 2023, and is a project led by MBDA. Israel’s David’s Sling, designed to intercept tactical ballistic missiles.

China has the Fan Ji (FJ) series of missile interceptors and the XianFeng missile-intercepting cannon. The HQ-9 SAM, S-400 system, and the HQ-19, similar to the THAAD, are some of them. The HQ-29 is a counterpart to the MIM-104F PAC-3. The technology and experience from the successful anti-satellite test using a ground-launched interceptor during January 2007 were immediately applied to current ABM efforts and development. China is the second country after the US that demonstrated intercepting a ballistic missile with a kinetic kill vehicle; the interceptor missile was an SC-19. On February 4, 2021, China successfully conducted a mid-course intercept anti-ballistic missile test.

India’s Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) is an exo-atmospheric interceptor system. On 6 December 2007, the Advanced Air Defence (AAD) missile system was tested successfully. The Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) is designed to take out the target missile at altitudes above 150 km. India successfully launched AAD, renamed Ashwin, and now the BMD test program is complete and awaits operational deployment. India also has the S-400. India’s current BMD range is 2,000 km, and Phase 2 will increase it up to 5,000 km.

ABMs against all-out attack and MIRVs

Difficulties that had already made an ABM system questionable for defending against an all-out attack combined with MIRV. One problem was the low-earth orbit-based Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that would give little warning to the defence. Another problem was high-altitude EMP (whether from offensive or defensive nuclear warheads), which could degrade defensive radar systems. A large number of interceptors will thus be required. The Reagan-era Strategic Defence Initiative (often referred to as “Star Wars”), along with research into various energy-beam weaponry, brought new interest in the area of ABM technologies. That may be the future for ABMs.

Space-based ABM, such as “Brilliant Pebbles", consisted of a thousand very small, intelligent, orbiting satellites with kinetic warheads. The many small interceptors would cooperatively communicate among themselves and target a large swarm of ICBM warheads in space or in the late boost phase. Such programs could be revived.

To summarise

The largest ballistic missile attack in history took place on October 1, 2024, when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched about 200 missiles at Israel, a distance of about 1,500 kilometres. The missiles arrived about 15 minutes after launch. It is believed that Iran’s Fattah-1 and Kheybar Shekan missiles were used, which both have a range of about 1,500 km. Most or many of these were intercepted by Israeli and American ABM systems.

Use of a ballistic missile by a major nuclear power like Russia has different connotations, more so with a clear threat to those who possess nuclear weapons. During a televised address to his country, President Putin stated that the country was entitled to use their weapons against those who supplied weapons to Ukraine to hit targets in Russia. He added that countries that would be targeted would be given advance warnings to evacuate to safety. Undoubtedly it was an escalatory decision by the significantly weakened outgoing US presidency to allow the already losing Ukraine to fire Western weapons on targets in Russia.

Russia has the largest inventory of nuclear weapons. As it is, many felt that Russia had been pushed into invading Ukraine by creating conditions for Ukraine to join NATO. Currently Russia is fighting the economic and military might of the very powerful West. Putin had no choice but to use the nuclear threat card. Till now it was being used politically, but now we are getting closer to its military use. In every act, Putin is scoring points, if not wins. Restraint is needed on both sides. After Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the power of atomic weapons has grown many thousand times. Nobody wants WWIII.

The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.