The Great Game in Arctic: India to build non-nuclear icebreaker ships for Russia

Russia has shortlisted Indian shipyards to build four non-nuclear icebreaker ships. This strategic partnership will support Russia’s Northern Sea Route plan, aiming to establish a new shipping corridor through the Arctic, reducing travel time.

The project will significantly boost India’s shipbuilding capabilities and enhance maritime ties between India and Russia, strengthening bilateral relations. It will also increase trade and economic cooperation, with potential for joint ventures, and strengthen India’s position in the global shipbuilding market.

The icebreakers will be designed to navigate harsh Arctic conditions, facilitating year-round navigation through the Northern Sea Route.

Icebreaker Ships

An icebreaker is a special-purpose ship or boat designed to move and navigate through ice-covered waters and provide safe waterways for other boats and ships. The icebreaker ships have three traits: a strengthened hull, an ice-clearing shape, and the power to push through sea ice.

The bending strength of sea ice is low enough, but even in cases of very thick ice, an icebreaker can drive its bow onto the ice to break it under the weight of the ship. A buildup of broken ice in front of a ship can slow it down much more than the breaking of the ice itself, so icebreakers have a specially designed hull to direct the broken ice around or under the vessel. The external components of the ship’s propulsion system (propellers, propeller shafts, etc.) are at greater risk of damage than the vessel’s hull, so the ability of an icebreaker to propel itself onto the ice, break it, and clear the debris from its path successfully is essential for its safety.

The first icebreakers in 1837 were steam-powered. The first diesel-electric icebreakers were built in the 1930s. Russia currently operates all existing and functioning nuclear-powered icebreakers. The first one, NS Lenin, was launched in 1957 and entered operation in 1959, before being officially decommissioned in 1989. It was both the world’s first nuclear-powered surface ship and the first nuclear-powered civilian vessel. In May 2007, sea trials were completed for the nuclear-powered Russian icebreaker NS 50 Let Pobedy. The vessel was put into service by Murmansk Shipping Company, which manages all eight Russian state-owned nuclear icebreakers.

The Arctic Region

The Arctic region covers over one-sixth of the earth’s landmass and is set to play an increasing role in shaping the course of world affairs. The still less explored region is rich in exploitable natural resources, especially gas and oil and marine living resources. It is estimated that the Arctic could be home to nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas. The Arctic Ocean around Earth’s North Pole is full of floating ice, with ridges up to 20 meters thick.

Global industrialisation has raised temperatures because of increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the glaciers are rapidly melting. The minimum Arctic sea ice extent in 2024 was 4.28 million square kilometres, which is around 1.8 million square kilometres lower than the long-term average. The Arctic sea ice reduction has been at a rate of almost 13 percent per decade. At this rate, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer by 2040. Melting ice will raise the sea level and submerge many island territories and coastal cities. So clearly, climate change and global warming are the main issues engaging the entire world.

Melting Ice and New Sea Routes

The shrinking of ice sheets is resulting in new water bodies being created. Some of the countries surrounding the Arctic Ocean have started claiming these water bodies and want to exploit the resources, especially oil and natural gas. The melting ice is also creating more maritime trade routes. Normally they should be treated as international waterways, but the territorial claims may restrict open access. It could open a sea route in northern parts of Canada, connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in the summer months. Similarly, the Chinese are looking at an Arctic route to the Baltic States and Europe. The shortened sea routes would also reduce transportation costs.

The Arctic Council

Unlike Antarctica, which is uninhabited and administered by a treaty of 1959 that allows only peaceful activities, there is no such treaty covering the Arctic. The Arctic Council was set up in 1996 by the Ottawa Declaration. It is a grouping that looks into issues faced by the Arctic countries and the residents of the Arctic. The United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia are the eight countries having territory within the Arctic Circle. All are members of this council. The council provides for having countries with observer status. In 2011, the Council clarified its criteria for admission of observers.

The critical requirement was that the applicants must “recognise Arctic States’ sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction in the Arctic” and “recognise that an extensive legal framework applies to the Arctic Ocean”. The Himalayas are often considered the ‘Third Pole’ with a commonality of elements with the Arctic and Antarctic. It was thus important for India to have a foothold in all three. In May 2013, India became the 11th country to be made a permanent observer at the Arctic Council.

Militarisation and the Arctic Cold War

Both Russia and the United States have for long placed weapons, including Russian nuclear deterrence, in the Arctic region. Both had Arctic military bases and had placed significant surveillance systems in the region. Effectively, the Arctic is already militarised. Russia has been operating nuclear-powered icebreakers in the Arctic for some time. The Arctic Military Environmental Cooperation (AMEC) agreement between Russia, the US, and Norway did help decommission a significant number of former Soviet nuclear-powered submarines. The US also reduced the assets based in Alaska. Yet control over the Arctic by many countries, especially the US and Russia, has begun a new Cold War. With the West and Russia drawn into a fresh showdown over Ukraine since 2014, the once cooperative approach has started breaking down.

Arctic Sea Routes

Higher levels of ice melting due to global climate change have begun opening in the Arctic region, more so in the summer months and for longer periods of time. There are three main routes. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the arctic coast of Russia. Ice clears up here first and therefore is available for longer duration. It also has the highest commercial potential. The route reduces the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe from 21,000 km via the Suez Canal to 12,800 km. It implies transit time saving by 10–15 days. NSR was used extensively for natural resource extraction and transportation during the Soviet Era. It was also used for military resupplies. In 2009, two German ships led by a Russian icebreaker made the first commercial journey across the NSR from Busan in South Korea to Rotterdam in the Netherlands, establishing good commercial prospects.

The North West Passage (NWP), the sea route between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans crossing Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, began being used first in 2007. It may open for more regular use soon. While Canada claims it as an internal waterway, the United States and various European countries claim that it is an international strait and transit passage and must allow free and unencumbered movement. This route between East Asia and Western Europe would be around 13,600 km vis-à-vis 24,000 km via the Panama Canal. But the parts of the route are just 15 metres (49 ft) deep, thus reducing viability. But China seems still interested in using this passage to the Eastern US, as the Panama Canal too has ship size and tonnage restrictions.

The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would use the central part of the Arctic to directly link the Strait of Bering and the Atlantic Ocean port of Murmansk. This route is hypothetical as it involves ice-free conditions that are not yet observed. The Arctic Bridge linking Murmansk port in Russia to Narvik in Norway and further to Churchill port in Canada is mostly used for the grain trade. Typically, it can’t be called a trans-Arctic route.

China: A New Player in the Arctic

As China grew into a significant power, it has been showing interest in the Arctic region. It has been building military and other capabilities to defend its interests in the region and has an aggressive Arctic policy. Denmark, backed by the US, refused China, which offered to buy an old military base in Greenland and build an international airport. China’s Arctic forays are being monitored and challenged by the US.

China released its official Arctic Policy paper in January 2018. It covers foreign relations with Arctic countries. China has interests in the Arctic to create infrastructure for research, military, and other purposes. It wants to exploit resources. It has plans for a Polar Silk Road through the Arctic to help expedite global shipping delivery. China considers itself a “Near-Arctic State” and a major stakeholder in the Arctic. While many observer nations consider themselves “near-Arctic” nations, China claims to be a continental state that is closest to the Arctic Circle. As far back as 1925, China had become a signatory to Spitsbergen, later called the Svalbard Treaty. The treaty allows members to engage in a certain amount of mining, while recognising Norway’s sovereignty.

China has set up a Polar Research Institute in Shanghai. They began Arctic expeditions in 1984. In 1996, China joined the International Arctic Science Committee. They have a series of research vessels, including the Chinese polar icebreaker MV Xue Long. China built the Arctic Yellow River station in 2004.

In 2018, Shanghai-based COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited made eight transits through the Arctic between Europe and China. China insists that their one-fifth of the world’s population must benefit from the Arctic resources. China spends more than the US on Arctic research.

China’s “Polar Silk Road” is a joint initiative with Russia and was launched in 2018. Like Russia, China also wants to have nuclear-powered icebreakers in the Arctic, becoming only the second country to do so. Through the Arctic shipping route, the maritime shipping distance from Shanghai to Hamburg is around 7,000 kilometres shorter than the southern route through the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal.

India’s Shipbuilding Capacity

India’s shipbuilding capacity is steadily increasing. It is expected to grow to 69 million gross tonnes (gt) by 2025 and peak at 81 million gt in 2030. Albeit, this is still 26 percent below the peak reached in 2011. The Cochin Shipyard Ltd. has the largest shipbuilding capacity at 110 thousand deadweight tonnage (DWT). It can build and repair large ships, including two of India’s largest double hull crude oil tankers. Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. had a shipbuilding capacity of 80 thousand DWT. India currently has less than 1 per cent share of the global shipbuilding market. China, South Korea, and Japan control 85 per cent of the industry.

The share of the cargo carried by Indian-owned or flagged vessels has been dropping over the past decade and presently stands at only about 5.4 per cent. India’s Maritime India Vision 2030 (MIV 2030) and the Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 have set targets to bring India among the top 10 by 2030 and the top 5 by 2047. The government has announced plans to build multiple shipbuilding clusters in collaboration with coastal states.

The Shipbuilding Global Market Report 2024 estimates the global shipbuilding market to grow from $207.15 billion in 2023 to $220.52 billion in 2024 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5 per cent. The report added that Asia-Pacific was the largest region in the global shipbuilding market in 2023, followed by Western Europe.

Indian Arctic Presence and Interests

India has had a permanent Arctic research station in Svalbard, Norway, since July 2008. Named “Himadri”, it is located within the International Arctic Research Base, nearly 1,200 kilometres from the North Pole. The research is centred on monitoring of the fjord dynamics, glaciers, space weather, and carbon recycling, among many others. India is also looking at genetics, glaciology, geology, pollution in the atmosphere, and space weather, among other fields. In 2014,

India also established an underwater moored observatory “IndARC” at Kongsfjorden fjord, Svalbard. Svalbard is the northernmost year-round settlement on Earth, with a population of about 2,200. The scientific purpose is of finding linkages between the Arctic weather parameters and the south-west monsoon.

India is a growing major power. It would like to be a significant player in any power structure that evolves in the Arctic region. India’s ONGC Videsh has been interested in investing in Russia’s Arctic liquefied natural gas projects.

India released its Arctic policy in March 2022. It was titled ‘India and the Arctic: building a partnership for sustainable development’. The policy enumerated India’s interests in scientific research, climate and environmental issues, economic and resource prospects, sea connectivity, and having India’s presence in the region. India is also looking at the Arctic sea lanes for improving connectivity to certain northern destinations.

India also plans to connect with the Arctic sea routes using the already planned 7,200-kilometre-long International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road routes. It would move freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. The results showed transport costs were reduced by $2,500 per 15 tonnes of cargo.

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a project to create a network of infrastructure to improve trade between India, the Middle East, and Europe. The project includes roads, railways, ports, pipelines, and sea lines.

Other routes under consideration include via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Another option being explored is to have a Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor to reach closer to the Arctic.

The Way Ahead

The Arctic continues to lure researchers to venture northwards to where “the next great game” seems evolving. Unlike Antarctica, Arctic states already have ownership over most of the areas through the Law of the Sea regime. Yet the discussions of great power politics, competition, and conflict in the Arctic are increasingly engaging the strategic community.

Russia’s Northern Fleet is strategically located, covering the Arctic regions, and has the most dominant position among all Arctic states. Interestingly, the US became an Arctic state because it had purchased Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million in 1867. Canada and Northern European states have a great stake, and the US will work closely with them.

While China is claiming a “near-Arctic state” status, India is too far away to make such claims. India would hope that intra-regional cooperation rather than conflict will flourish. But the global completion between the US, Russia, and China is already becoming consequential. India must remain keenly engaged and keep a foothold in the Arctic. India’s Russian connection, and now this significant icebreaker shipbuilding project makes India even more relevant. Its interests require more than just a wait-and-watch approach.

The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.