 "The expanding battlefield: Assessing the ‘Axis of Resistance’ as Iran prepares to retaliate")
The night of July 30 may have changed the West Asian region forever. On this fateful night, three strikes across three capitals in the region led to two key assassinations. Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, who was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s newly elected president Masoud Pezeshkian, was assassinated in a targeted strike at his residence in a closely guarded area of Tehran. In Beirut, a precision airstrike took out senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, who Israel had blamed for the missile attack in the occupied Golan Heights on July 27, which led to the death of 12 Israeli citizens.
Elsewhere, in Baghdad, a missile attack by US forces targeted a base south of the city used by Iran-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), killing four members of the group.
A day later, on 1 August, Israel claimed it had also eliminated Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif in an airstrike carried out in Khan Younis city in Gaza on July 13. Earlier, on July 20, Israeli fighter aircraft had targeted the port city of Hodeidah in Yemen, which is controlled by the Houthis, setting a major oil storage dump on fire and killing six people.
With Israel being blamed for all the strikes, the Gaza war, which has been oscillating between hopes of a ceasefire and continuing death and destruction, may have just crossed a critical threshold. It may no longer be possible to keep the conflict isolated to Gaza. This is especially relevant in view of Iran’s announcement, after a brief military spat with Israel in April this year, that “the era of strategic patience is over” and that any Israeli assaults will be met with a “direct” response.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsFollowing the assassinations, the response was led by none other than Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was firm and clear about seeking revenge. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, also vowed severe retaliation against Israel.
A strike by Iran and its allies thus seems inevitable; it is only a question of ‘when’ and ‘how’. As the region awaits the inevitable, it may be relevant to examine the military capabilities of each side to better understand how such strikes could unfold.
Military capabilities
Iran is the main protagonist in the anticipated strike. For years, it has relied on its proxies in the region to wage war on its behalf, but this time, it is likely to undertake a direct strike. As Iran and Israel are separated by almost 1,800 km, a ground war or “boots on the ground” is unlikely. Therefore, military power projection will be through standoff weapon systems like drones and missiles.
Regarding airpower, Iran has a poorly equipped and ageing fleet. Its air force comprises an array of aircraft, ranging from US-made F-14s to Chinese F-4s, F-5s, and F-7s, along with Russian Sukhois and MiG-29s. Most estimates suggest a total of 330–350 aircraft. Although Iran has been asking Russia to supply Sukhoi-35 fighter jets, this is unlikely to materialise soon.
It is Iran’s missile technology, however, that is potent and lethal. Iran’s array of missiles is the largest and most diverse in the region. Many are reported to be inherently capable of carrying nuclear payloads. Iran has an arsenal of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles that can be launched from Iran itself, while shorter-range missiles can be fired from Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Iran possesses the Khorramshahr-1, 2, and 3, which are MRBMs with ranges of 2,000 to 3,000 km, the Fatah-1 with ranges of 1,400 to 1,700 km, and many others, such as the Sejjil (2,000 km) and Paveh (1,650 km). It is estimated that Iran has also developed the Khyber Shikan missile, a more advanced version from the Fatah-1 family of missiles.
In addition, Iran has developed hypersonic missiles, which fly at speeds of Mach 5 and are beyond the interception capability of most anti-missile systems. Russia has used these missiles in Ukraine with great success. Iran also has cruise missiles, such as the Kh-55, with a range of up to 3,000 km.
Iran possesses a large variety of drones as well, having mastered the art and science of developing low-cost, low-technology drones. Prominent among these is the Shahed category of drones, which are suicide or kamikaze drones meant to explode on their targets. Shahed-131s were used when the Houthis targeted Saudi oil fields and airfields in 2019. The improved version, the Shahed-136 drone, has a longer range of over 1,500 miles and can carry 20–40 kg of explosives. The Shahed-238 drone has jet propulsion, making it faster and capable of carrying heavier payloads. There are also the Samad-1, 2, and 3 categories of drones, which have effective ranges of 1,800 km and can carry substantial payloads.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah, or “The Party of God”, is the world’s most heavily armed non-state group and has been described as “a militia trained like an army and equipped like a state”. This Iran-backed group possesses more than 150,000 missiles and rockets, according to the World Factbook of the US Central Intelligence Agency, which can hit almost all of Israel. Many of its weapons are Iranian, with some also drawn from Russian or Chinese models. Although Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah claims to have 100,000 fighters, most estimates suggest it has up to 45,000.
Unguided rockets, such as Katyusha missiles with a range of 30 km, comprise the bulk of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. It also possesses Iranian models, such as Raad (Arabic for “thunder”), Fajr (“dawn”) and Zilzal (“earthquake”) rockets, which have a more powerful payload and longer range than Katyushas. In the ongoing war in Gaza, Hezbollah has fired Katyushas and Burkan (“volcano”) missiles, with an explosive payload of 300–500 kg, at Israel. It has also used Iranian-made Falaq-2 rockets, which were used for the first time in June this year and which carry a larger warhead than the previously used Falaq-1.
Hezbollah uses anti-tank missiles, including the Russian-made Kornet, which have proved very effective against tanks and armoured personnel carriers. It has also reportedly used an Iranian-made guided missile known as “al-Mas”, which can hit targets beyond the line of sight, enabling it to strike from above. Hezbollah successfully used anti-tank missiles during its 2006 war with Israel, when it struck nearly 50 Israeli Merkava tanks.
Although Hezbollah is known to possess Soviet-era anti-aircraft gun systems, such as the ZU-23, OSA, Strella, Igla, and Pantsyr S-1, it is only during the current Gaza war that it has downed Israeli drones – including the Hermes 450 and Hermes 900 – using surface-to-air missiles.
Hezbollah also utilises one-way explosive drones, as well as drones that drop bombs and return to Lebanon. These are mostly short-range drones supplied by Iran, along with locally assembled Ayoub and Mersad models, which analysts say are cheap and relatively easy to produce.
In addition to its stand-off weapons, Hezbollah has a well-trained and highly motivated ‘Special Forces’ too who are well trained in guerilla warfare. Having fought Israel in 2006 and in constant state of conflict since then, these are battle hardened and capable of inflicting damage through raids.
Houthis
The military capability of the Houthis is basically centered on two types of weapon platforms — UAVs and ballistic and cruise missiles. Most of the acquisitions and developments in its arsenal are through Iran. Their initial inventory comprised Russian P-21 and P-22 missiles and Chinese C-801 missiles, both taken over from the Yemeni armed forces.
The Houthis have the Typhoon missile, a rebranded version of the Iranian Qadr missile, with a range of 1,600 to 1,900 km. It was unveiled in a military parade weeks before the onset of the Gaza war. They also possess the Quds-2 cruise missile, with a range of 1,200 km. They may also possess a version of the Chinese C-802 (YJ-82/CH-SS-N-6 Saccade) anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM). According to the Military Balance 2024 report, the Houthis have developed more ASCMs, which were unveiled during military parades in 2023, including two anti-ship versions of the Iranian Quds/351 LACM. Both systems have a range of at least 800 km.
The Houthis have also unveiled a variety of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) and guided rockets employing Iranian infrared or imaging infrared seeker technology. These include the 450 km-range Asef, a rebranded ASBM version of Iran’s Fateh-313 missile, and the Tankil missile, a rebranded anti-ship version of the IRGC-developed 500 km-range Zohayr. There are reportedly three smaller ASBMs as well: the 140 km-range Faleq, the Mayun, and the Bahr al-Ahmar.
Regarding drones, the Houthi drone inventory includes the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, which has a range of about 2,000 kilometres. The Houthis also possess Iranian-made Samad-2 and Samad-3 drones, which have a range of around 1,500 km and carry a payload of about 20 kg. The drone used by the Houthis in their recent attack on Tel Aviv in July is called the “Yafa”. This seems to be an upgraded and locally modified version of the Samad-3, designed to increase its range and help it avoid detection.
Hamas
Hamas is the third component of the “3Hs”, supported by Iran. It does not have any conventional forces or weapons. Its fighters are estimated to number around 25,000 to 30,000 and are primarily trained in guerrilla warfare and terrorist tactics. Hamas has been fighting the Gaza war with Israel since October 2023 and has suffered major damage and casualties, but it remains resilient and effective.
Apart from basic hand-held weapons, Hamas is known to possess an array of short-range rockets, including the Russian-made Kornet platform and the Iranian Fajr family of anti-tank weapons. It is also known to have Iranian-made Fateh-110 ballistic missiles, which have a range of up to 185 miles. It uses fast-moving light vehicles, such as jeeps, pickup trucks, and motorbikes. Its general modus operandi involves the use of tunnels deep under the Gaza fence, the placement of IEDs, and the carrying out of spectacular attacks in Israel.
Other Militias in Iraq and Syria
Iran also has support from various militia groups in Iraq and Syria. Most prominent among these are the Iraqi Shiite militias known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). These groups have repeatedly attacked US troops in Iraq — over 60 times — since the start of the Gaza war. Apart from the drone strike on January 28 on a facility known as Tower 22 in Jordan, on the Syrian border, which killed three US troops, a rocket attack on the Al-Asad US airbase in western Iraq injured five US soldiers as recently as August 6.
The wait for the retaliation
The military capability of the “Axis of Resistance” is thus very effective, and it has been demonstrated more than once that its weapon systems can penetrate the formidable Israeli defences. Even on high alert, anticipating a retaliatory strike, three out of four drones from south Lebanon were able to penetrate Israeli defences on August 6 and explode in northern Israel.
Israel will clearly be banking on its early warning systems and anti-missile defence systems, including the long-range MIM-104 Patriot PAC-2, with a range of 160 km, and the short-range Iron Dome (anti-rocket system), David’s Sling, and the famous Arrow air defence systems.
The US has already moved an aircraft carrier battle group into the region. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan have declared that they will not permit Iran or its proxies to use their airspace to carry out an attack, thereby giving proxy support to Israel.
Iran, on the other hand, is determined to retaliate. It has already informed the UN that it will carry out a retaliatory attack on Israel in self-defence against violations of its national security and territorial integrity, citing Article 51 of the UN Charter. The world waits as Israel braces for an unprecedented and coordinated attack, while the region faces the prospect of an escalated conflict spreading far beyond Gaza – one that promises to alter the security landscape of the region forever.
Col Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been Director in Military Intelligence as well as Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. His X handle is @rajeevidsa. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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