 "Thaw in Sino-Indian relations: Trust, but keep verifying")
The Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in the Russian city of Kazan symbolises a thaw in the relationship between the two most powerful Asian countries that had turned bitter about four years ago in the wake of Chinese Army’s unexpected attacks on Indian soldiers in the Galwan Valley.
India’s commercial and political ties with China was moving in an upwardly positive trajectory when the Galwan incident occurred and Sino-Indian ties nosedived. In a way, a restrained Cold War type rivalry emerged with China more fiercely expanding its influence in countries around India and at the same time feeling jittery about deepening India-US security relations. India’s proactive engagements in the Indo-Pacific, strengthening of the Quad, and Delhi’s ability to navigate the turbulent geopolitics emerging from the Ukraine War with continuation of stronger ties with Moscow and Washington appeared to be Beijing’s envy.
Moreover, Beijing also witnessed India’s robust economic growth amidst downturn in global political economy, including in China.
China clearly sees the benefits of normalising ties with India, which has the tenacity to face Chinese muscle flexing along the LAC and the wisdom to maintain trade ties with China at the same time.
In addition, persistently taking unfriendly steps against India in the backdrop of US alliance politics in the Indo-Pacific, such as the Camp David Defence Pact with Japan and South Korea, AUKUS pact with Australia and Britain are now seen in Beijing as counterproductive. China is undoubtedly suspicious of Quad as well, but respects India as a country that maintains its strategic autonomy.
The way India has been able to keep Pakistan at bay also sends a clear signal to China that Islamabad may be proud of its all weather friendship with China, but an unstable Pakistan cannot be a durable strategic asset and may actually become a liability.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsChinese think in the long term and take steps with a strategic vision. The high level dialogues between the two sides at multiple levels to restore peace and stability along the border and its positive outcome is the byproduct of current Chinese strategic thinking.
India too is a responsible international actor with deep strategic calculations. The Modi government has successfully deterred further Chinese advances along the LAC, reinforced the military presence in the border regions, built critical infrastructure in the difficult Himalayan terrain, and simultaneously refused to normalise ties with China unless peace along the border is maintained and status quo of April 2020 is restored.
The latest agreement by both the parties is a welcome development and the very first step to restore normalcy is mirrored in the Modi-Xi meeting in Kazan. Both China and India support a multipolar world order, both oppose unilateralism in principle, both seek to champion the cause of the Global South, and both are members of multiple multilateral mechanisms, including BRICS, East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, and many others.
Prime Minister Modi has aptly said that Sino-Indian cooperation can bring dividends for regional and global security. External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has often stated that the 21st century cannot become an Asian Century without deeper and expansive Sino-Indian cooperation.
However, the Modi-Xi meeting in Russia is only a first necessary step. It perhaps gives satisfaction to the strategic community and the peace lovers in the Indo-Pacific region. After all, many Indo-Pacific countries face their own dilemmas in navigating the Sino-Indian differences and disputes. Thaw in Sino-Indian ties is certainly good news for them. But it is not a positive sign for countries that played China against India or saw strategic gains in emerging Sino-Indian competition in certain areas. Thus, complications will arise on the way to normalising India’s relations with China. Some hardliners from both sides may also hold on to their conventional views that normalisation of relations is not possible until the entire boundary disputes are resolved. Besides, India needs to be cautious, careful and diligent to progress through myriad dialogue mechanisms that have remained stalled since 2020.
China has a well-known record of springing surprises and India needs to remain alert all the time. Trust is an imperative to conduct international relations, but history teaches us that it is important to keep verifying the moves of other countries, so that words, written and spoken, match actions on the ground.
The writer is founder chairperson of Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies and formerly professor at JNU. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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