Ten global shocks that shaped 2025, and will define 2026

In Part I of this year-end series, I chronicled 10 positive developments that 2025 brought. In Part II, I delve into 10 other events—positive and not-so-positive—that shaped the world and whose reverberations will continue to be felt in 2026.

Here is my pick of the top ten events, many of which brought chaos and disruptive change to the world at large.

First, Hottest on Record

The World Meteorological Organisation, in its release on December 13, 2025, said that 2025 is certain to end among the top three hottest years on record for global average temperature, falling just behind 2024 and 2023.

Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (European Commission), made the following doomsday prophecy:

“We are now in the decade where the 1.5°C limit is likely to be exceeded, highlighting the accelerating pace of climate change and the urgent need for action. October 2025 was the third-warmest October on record globally, and while 2025 may not be the hottest year, it is almost certain to rank in the top three. The last three years saw exceptional temperatures, and the average for 2023-2025 is likely to exceed 1.5°C, the first time for a three-year period.”

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“For November, global temperatures were 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels,” Burgess added. “The three-year average for 2023-2025 is on track to exceed 1.5°C for the first time.”

As The Guardian reports, average temperatures have risen sharply due to the blanket of carbon pollution smothering the Earth, intensifying weather extremes from heatwaves to heavy rains. While warming El Niño conditions boosted temperatures in 2023 and 2024, they gave way to weak cooling La Niña conditions in 2025.

Copernicus further found that 2025 was tied with 2023 as the second-hottest year on record. “These milestones are not abstract,” Burgess said. “They reflect the accelerating pace of climate change, and the only way to mitigate future warming is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

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Since the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, planet-heating emissions have continued to rise, despite the expansion of renewable energy, along with average temperatures and extreme weather intensity.

The Copernicus findings echoed the World Meteorological Organisation’s analysis ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil, which found that 2015-2025 would be the 11 warmest years in records stretching back to 1850.

This, in my view, is the biggest scare threatening the very existence of humanity.

Second, The Worst Humanitarian Crisis

While global attention has focused on the Ukraine–Russia and Israel–Hamas wars, the world’s worst humanitarian crisis has unfolded in Sudan.

Sudan’s civil war, which erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has by late 2025 displaced over 12.4 million people—9 million internally and 3.3-4 million as refugees—and affected 30.4 million of its 51 million population.

Famine grips millions, with 25 million facing acute food insecurity, four million children malnourished (730,000 severely), and outbreaks of cholera, dengue, and malnutrition killing tens of thousands amid a collapsed health system, with 70–80 per cent of hospitals non-functional.

The conflict stems from a power struggle following the 2021 coup between SAF leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), rooted in Darfur’s ethnic militias and failed civilian transitions. By April 2025, SAF recaptured Khartoum’s presidential palace but lost El Fasher in October to the RSF, consolidating Darfur control through mass killings and camp attacks.

Violence has included starvation as a weapon, rape—including of children—aid blockages, and infrastructure destruction. UN experts warn of a “generational catastrophe”.

Readers can explore this crisis in greater detail in my Op-Ed, “ Neither Gaza nor Ukraine: Sudan endures world’s worst humanitarian crisis,” published in Firstpost on August 22, 2025.

Third, a Generational Shock to the Global Order

One of the most profound and underappreciated forces reshaping 2025 was the global surge of Generation Z-led protests, many escalating into violence, prolonged unrest, and political destabilisation.

Unlike earlier movements driven by ideology or party politics, this wave was structurally generational—decentralised, digitally coordinated, emotionally charged, and resistant to traditional negotiation.

Across North America, Europe, West Asia, Africa, and parts of Asia, Gen Z mobilisation became a new political variable that governments struggled to understand or control.

By 2025, Generation Z had reached critical mass: fully digital-native, entering adulthood amid climate collapse, unaffordable housing, war livestreams, AI-driven job anxiety, and deep distrust of institutions.

As the world moves into 2026, Gen Z-led protests are likely to take centre stage.

Fourth, Inequality Chokehold

Global economic inequality worsened in 2025, with the richest 1 per cent capturing 20.3 per cent of global income, while 44 per cent of the world lived below $6.85 a day. Experts predict further worsening through 2026-2030 unless corrective action is taken.

Fifth, Disruptor No 1: Artificial Intelligence

In 2025, artificial intelligence emerged as the single biggest disruptor, radically altering work, inequality, and markets. Global AI adoption surged, Nvidia’s market cap peaked near $5 trillion, and automation risks spread across knowledge-sector jobs.

Not all predictions may come true, but generative AI has emerged as the most disruptive technological force of my lifetime.

Six, The Retreat

As Eswar Prasad writes in Foreign Policy, globalisation is not dead but retreating into fragmentation. Trade and financial flows have fallen, geopolitics has worsened, and inward-looking policies now dominate economic decision-making.

Seven, 1,411 Days of War

By December 31, 2025, the Russia-Ukraine war marked 1,411 days. It has caused massive casualties, economic devastation, nuclear escalation fears, and global energy and food shocks. The Doomsday Clock moved to 89 seconds to midnight—the closest ever.

Eight, A Spectacular Louvre Heist

On October 19, thieves disguised as workers stole €88 million worth of jewels from the Louvre in eight minutes, exposing security vulnerabilities at the world’s most visited museum.

Nine, A Dangerous New US Military Doctrine

The US launched lethal operations against drug-trafficking vessels, imposed blockades linked to Venezuela, bombed Iran alongside Israel, and carried out strikes in Nigeria, signalling a dangerous expansion of military doctrine.

Ten, Trump Trouble

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January triggered protectionist trade wars, institutional clashes, mass deportations, and global instability. His tariff weaponisation upended world trade and will likely hurt the US itself.

The year 2025 was turbulent, shocking, and disruptive. I hope 2026 brings renewed hope.

(The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India-based impact consultant. He is President of Advisory Services at BARSYL. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s position.)