 "An opposition fighter riding a motorcycle steps on a broken bust of the late Syrian President Hafez Assad, in Damascus, Syria, on December 8, 2024. AP")
The story unfolding in Syria looks nothing short of a thriller web series, with every episode coming up with a new and unexpected twist, making it very difficult to predict the final outcome. The current season in this thriller announced itself on November 27, when reports of a combined offensive by a group of rebel outfits moving into Syria from North and Northwest started filtering in. It was nothing new for this country, which has been partly occupied by rebels and has been besieged by violence and turbulence for over 13 years.
The Syrian army, supported by Iran and Russia, were expected to halt the assault and restore the status quo. However, the blitz-like offensive, which was launched by a combination of forces led by the Sunni terrorist group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) took the Syrian army by total surprise and by November 29, the rebel groups had captured many areas in the north and North-west, including the important cities of Aleppo and Idlib. The Syrian army fought for a while, Russian war planes tried to ward off the dangerous march and the Iranians shared critical intelligence, but all in vain as the assaulting rebels entered Damascus on December 8, and President Bashar al Assad flew off to Russia, having sought asylum.
Why did Damascus Fall So Soon?
The attack caught the Syrian army as well as Iran and Russia by total surprise. By the time, Syrian army could regroup, it was all over. The meek surrender by the Syrian army, many of the soldiers abandoning their weapons and running off into Iraq, definitely facilitated the quick demise of the Syrian regime. The role of Turkey in pushing and supporting one of the groups, the Syrian National Army (SNA) which is also known as the Free Syrian Army, was without doubt, a critical factor. Also, the role of Israel and the US in providing critical intelligence as well as support to the other two major groups in the attack ie, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), also known as the Peoples’ Protection Unit (YPG), largely made up of Kurdish fighters and the leader of the pack, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a new avatar of its previous name, Al Nusra, cannot be understated.
The prevailing situation in the region too greatly helped in the timing and scope of the attack. The fact that this assault came merely a day after the Israel Hezbollah ceasefire was announced on 26th November cannot be a sheer coincidence. However, the most important factor has to be the war in Gaza which has been going on for over 14 months since 7th October last year and shows no signs of ending. In October this year, the war entered Southern Lebanon too when Israeli forces launched a ground offensive in an effort to crush and finish Hezbollah’s military capability and push Hezbollah northwards, across the Litani River. Over this period, Israel has carried out an intense and perhaps the most destructive military campaign ever which has led to almost total destruction of the Gaza Strip and huge losses to the fighting capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah. Plus, Israel successfully eliminated the entire top leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah through targeted assassinations. As a result, both Hamas and Hezbollah had been rendered weak and extended.
Meanwhile, Iran too was put to test by constant provocations by Israel and it finally broke its strategic patience when it engaged in a direct military conflict with Israel for the first time ever, first in April and thereafter in October. With its crucial proxies unable to hurt Israel like before, Iran was feeling the pressure of the war. Russia, another key ally of Syria, has been fighting its war in Ukraine over the past three years and has thinned out resources from Syria over time. Therefore, in terms of active support to the Assad regime in Syria, both its benefactors, Iran and Russia were in a weak position.
Plus, Syria itself is in a weak position, being targeted frequently by Israel and the US over the past few months. Thus, if there was ever going to be an opportunity to seize in Syria, this had to be the one and the loose coalition called the “Military Operations Command”, did just the same.
Fall was Easy, Transition Might be Difficult
This is not the first time that the Syrian regime was put under this kind of pressure. The anti-regime protests in the form of ‘Arab Spring’, launched by people frustrated by the dictatorial regimes in the region, found their voice in Syria too when protests broke out in the southern city of Daraa in March 2011. The regime was brutal in suppressing the revolt and the chemical weapons strike in the suburbs of Damascus in August 2013 took the Syrian conflict to yet another level of brutality.
The advent of Islamic State (IS) in Iraq in 2013 and its subsequent spread into Syria meant that the Assad regime had to face a new and very powerful threat to the regime. With northern areas of Aleppo and Idlib soon under the IS control, Assad had to fight a battle for survival. In 2014, when the IS claimed roughly a third of Syrian territory, with Raqqa as its capital, it looked well and truly over for Assad. It took a sustained and intense air campaign by Russia, well supported by Iranian forces, to finally defeat the IS in Syria and help Assad reclaim the majority of the lost territory.
This time around however, it seems that Assad has given up hope of recovering back from the assault and sought refuge in Russia. The HTS led group has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir as caretaker prime minister on December 10. Al-Bashir is the head of the HTS-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in the northwest area of Idlib. As per the announcement, he will lead a transitional Syrian government until March 1, 2025, till a more permanent solution is found.
The easy part, the overthrow of Assad, is now over. What is the plan now? With over 50 years of Assad family rule as the sole leader (dictator), no political parties or organizations have survived or evolved. In such a scenario, there are only two possible options for the future of governance of Syria. Either it is a technocratic setup, with the leader as well as ministers made of technocrats or the HTS leader Abu Mohammad al Joulani takes over the reins himself. Neither of the options look appealing in the long term.
As regards a technocratic government, it can best be an interim solution. The experiments with interim technocratic governments have not worked in either Libya or Egypt or even Tunisia, all of which bore the brunt of Arab Spring protests and overthrow of the rulers. The fragmented structure of the societies in the region, lack of democratic institutions and each warring group wanting a pie of its own often makes it very difficult for a technocratic government to survive and succeed.
The second option presents an even more dangerous scenario. If Jolani either independently or in concert with other prominent rebel groups, takes over the country’s governance, it is fraught with danger. One has to remember here that HTS is the new avatar of Al Nusra which has roots in the IS and Al Qaeda. The IS has vowed to create the Islamic Caliphate and enforce strict implementation of Sharia in the land across Iraq and Syria. Although Jolani has voiced conciliatory notes by announcing that his regime will not enforce any dress or conduct code on women, form an inclusive government for the country and grant amnesty to the soldiers who lay down their arms, past precedents in Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc, which were taken over by similar ideologically driven groups, do not inspire confidence.
Plus, Syria, by its character and geography is a hugely fragmented country, with Sunnis, Alawites, Shias, Christians, Druze and Kurds distributed across different regions, each highly populated. For over 50 years, the Assad family from the Alawites clan, comprising only 12 per cent of population, had ruled Syria, often through brutal oppression of other demographics. Iran supported the regime not only because it was from the Shia Sect of Islam but also because Syria suited it perfectly in its geopolitical designs across the region. Can and will the HTS, which is predominantly a Sunni group, be able to bridge the differences between various communities, is a big question.
The role of external players will be crucial too in new Syria. Israel has taken advantage of the chaos and has already taken over vast swathes of territories along the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights in the South in order to create a buffer zone for itself from any future threats. PM Netanyahu has called the ouster of Assad as a ‘historic day for the Middle East’. However, he too has cautioned that the situation’ offers great opportunity but is also fraught with significant dangers’. With the HTS ideologically aligned to the cause of independent Palestine, it will be interesting to see how HTS and Israel face-off shapes up in the future.
Iran is the other principal player in Syria. Despite being at odds with the Sunni groups like HTS, IS and Al Nusra, inputs indicate that it has already opened channels of communication with the HTS. If true, this will not be the first time that Iran would collaborate with a Sunni non-state actor. The successful example of Iran-Hamas relationship, despite Hamas being a Sunni organisation, is a perfect example. If Iran and HTS collaborate, things could shape up very differently in Syria. Remember, even in Afghanistan, Iran is one of the very few countries, which despite being adversely affected by Taliban brutality in the past, had kept the channel of communications open after US led forces fled Afghanistan in August 2021. It will therefore be important to see how the HTS-Iran love hate relationship plays out in the longer run.
How Russia plays its cards in the transition will be equally important to watch too. Despite granting asylum to Assad, it is likely that Russia will open some kind of communication with the new regime for retaining the right to operate its naval base in the Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase. Both these are critical for Russian operations in the Mediterranean Sea and Africa continent.
The extremely poor economic situation of Syria will be a huge challenge for any future governance structure. As per the World Bank, more than a decade of conflict has worsened Syria’s dire economic situation and has led to a dramatic deterioration in the welfare of Syrian households. As per data of 2022, poverty affects 69 per cent of the population and extreme poverty reached 27 per cent up from a negligible level in 2009. Reliance on food imports, although already an issue prior to 2011, has also intensified with the conflict. In 2023, the Syrian pound depreciated substantially by 141 per cent against the US dollar, while consumer price inflation is estimated to have risen by 93 per cent, exacerbated by government subsidy cuts. With more than a year under conflict due to the ongoing war in Gaza, the real GDP is projected to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2024, extending the 1.2 per cent decline in 2023. All this presents a very grim picture for any future government.
Conclusion
The regime change has finally taken place in Syria. People on the street are rejoicing and hundreds of them are living life as refugees are returning home. Assad and his oppressive regime is gone. What is filling in the vacuum is however not clear. Despite announcements of its good intentions, a HTS led government cannot be trusted to heed to the voice and needs of the people. Plus, the internal pressures from various groups in the society, jostling for power between various militant groups and external interests from countries like Iran, Israel and Russia as well as the US will not let the new regime settle too soon.
The poor state of the economy and the empty government coffers is a challenge right from the start. Plus, the likelihood of HTS turning back towards its roots in Al Qaeda or Al Nusra and reviving the dream of Islamic Caliphate is a real possibility. Libya and Afghanistan remain testimony to the fact that it is easy to overthrow regimes, but difficult to find successful and smooth transition to peace, especially in societies which do not have the foundation of political systems and people’s voices. Syria is one such example and it will be interesting to watch how and if Jolani transitions from a leader of a militant outfit to a successful political leader.
Col Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been Director in Military Intelligence as well as Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. His X handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.