Post-election Pakistan: Shehbaz Sharif government slowly gritting its teeth to tackle economic crisis

As the dust settles from Pakistan’s most controversial and least credible general elections in a while, the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), supported by the People’s Party of Pakistan (PPP) from outside, is slowly gritting its teeth to tackle the difficult economic crisis facing the nation.

While the delay in declaring results by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), involving alleged fudging of tallies from Form 45 (Polling Officer’s initial count) to Form 47 (Returning Officer’s compilation), contributed to lack of the February 8 election’s credibility, majorities could be cobbled in the National Assembly (NA) and provinces, especially Punjab comfortably enough. In the 336-member NA, the PML(N) has 122 seats (with 73 directly elected, 34 Women and 5 Minority members), the PPP 71 (54 direct, 16 Women and 3 Minority), the Mohajir/Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM - Pakistan) 22 seats (17 elected, 4 Women, 1 Minority) while in the Opposition, the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC)/ Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has 87 seats (all elected). The latter’s claim for reserved seats was rejected, both by the ECP and the Peshawar High Court. Eight MNAs preferred to continue as Independents.

In the 371-member Punjab Assembly, the PML(N) obtained 193 seats while PTI/SIC could get 98 seats, the PPP 13 and the PML (Quaid e Azam) (PML-Q) 10 seats. Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, Maryam was appointed Chief Minister. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the PTI/ SIC had a landslide 87 seats out of 145, with the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) emerging as the next largest party with only 17 seats.

More from Opinion

Sergio Gor’s senate hearing signals the future of Indo-American ties How Trump’s ‘War on Drugs’ buildup against Venezuela has a hidden agenda

Cocking a snook at the military establishment, Imran Khan nominated Ali Amin Gandapur, one of his party’s prominent hardliners involved in the 9 May, 2023 anti-Army demonstrations, as the new KP Chief Minister. The 168-member Sindh house saw the PPP comfortably win again with 84 seats, with MQM-P emerging second largest (28 MPAs). Murad Ali Shah was appointed CM again. The 65-member Balochistan Assembly has a PPP-led (17 seats) coalition government led by Sarfaraz Bugti, comprising 16 PML(N) MPAs and five Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) members.

ISPR press release (5 March, 2024)

Noting with satisfaction the smooth democratic transition of power in the Centre and provinces, as also the role played by the armed forces of Pakistan to provide a safe security environment for the conduct of the general election 2024  at great peril to their primary responsibility, the Inter Services Public Relations issued a stern press release after the 263rd Corps Commanders’ Conference, warning agitators engaged in “malicious efforts” to spread “organised misinformation and fake news” and “create distortions, confusion and disinformation” about the February 8 verdict. This was condemned as “part of an organised campaign” “launched for narrow political interests, to blur the abhorrent activities that took place”, on May 9, 2023, whose “planners, instigators, abettors, perpetrators and desecrators of martyrs’ monuments and attackers”, the ISPR insisted, would “certainly be brought to justice under the relevant provisions of the law and Constitution”.

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

How army remains Pakistan’s biggest business house

60 years on, why 1965 India–Pakistan war still matters

Rather than focus on real issues such as good governance, economic recovery, political stability and public wellbeing, such vested elements seemed bent “on creating political instability and uncertainty by attempting to scapegoat others for their own failings”. Instead, the ISPR release “hoped that the post-election environment would bring in the desired political and economic stability resulting in peace and prosperity for the people of Pakistan”.

PML(N) Cabinet

Shehbaz Sharif was duly elected Prime Minister in the NA, getting 201 votes against PTI/SIC’s nominee, Omar Ayub Khan’s 92 votes (Given the latter’s lineage, Imran Khan’s aim in nominating Omar as the PTI’s candidate in the PM election may have been a signal of an olive branch for peace with the Army establishment). His initially small 19-member Cabinet inducted expected PML(N) seniors like Khwaja Asif (Defence) but the Army’s preference prevailed in shunting Ishaq Dar to Foreign Affairs. Army Chief Gen Asim Munir’s close friend, Mohsin Naqvi, erstwhile Punjab Caretaker CM and current chairman of Pakistan Cricket Board, makes his debut in the Interior Ministry.

Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif may have had a say in constituting the cabinet, but with daughter Maryam ensconced as Punjab Chief Minister, he is perforce having to gradually move into the shadows, with a possible post-Ramzan sojourn to Saudi Arabia and London in the works, ostensibly for routine medical reasons.

The crucial Finance Ministry has gone to 64-year-old Mohammed Aurangzeb, who has been serving as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and President of Habib Bank, Pakistan since 2018. Son of former Attorney General, Chaudhry Mohd Farooq, Aurangzeb graduated with economics and science from the Wharton Business School, USA. While one of his uncles,  Khalil-ur-Rehman Ramday, served as a judge of the  Supreme Court of Pakistan, another,  Asad Ur Rehman, served as a PML (N)member of the NA.

Zardari elected President

On 9 March, PPP co-chairman, Asif Ali Zardari was expectedly elected President, ending Dr Arif Alvi’s misery as lame-duck Head of State since August, 2023. Zardari won 411 Electoral College votes against Opposition nominee, Mahmood Khan Achakzai’s 181 votes. The latter’s nomination by Imran Khan for the contest was a surprise, conveying an anti-establishment message, as Achakzai has been known as a maverick dissenter ever since his father, Abdus Samad Khan Achakzai was assassinated in a Quetta bombing in 1973. As Pakistan’s 14th President, Zardari’s will be a first ever second term (earlier, 2008-2013) for any incumbent.

Senate elections

Elections to 48 vacant Senate seats are slated to be held on 2 April, 2024. Fifty-two out of 104 Senators retire in March 2024 after completing their six-year terms. Four seats of retiring Senators from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) stand merged in KP. The process will help unelected Cabinet members like Ishaq Dar to get re-elected. Outgoing Caretaker PM Anwar Kakar will come in on a BAP seat albeit with the Army’s nod, as will Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who has however, opted to remain Independent. PTI’s Imran Khan struck a defiant note, nominating many hardline adherents (all involved neck-deep in instigating 9 May, 2023 violence) like Murad Saeed, Azam Swati (both from KP quota) and women candidates such as Yasmin Rashid Sanam Javed (from Punjab). If all goes well with promises worked out within the ruling coalition, former Prime Minister, PPP’s Yousuf Raza Gilani will bid to become Senate Chairman.

Rifts within PTI

The Senate nominations brought to surface simmering dissensions within the PTI. Already riled with recent dominance by Imran’s lawyers, older party loyalists voiced anger over being ignored by Imran Khan. No clear message was being sent, it was alleged, on whether Imran wanted to mend fences with the Army establishment or remain steadfast on his confrontationist posture, which had been instrumental in getting him such a resounding popular mandate on Feb 08. Progress in moving towards positive remedial succour from the higher Judiciary in recently imposed cases against Imran seemed to belie expectations, adding perhaps, to incarcerated Imran’s increasing desperation or confusion over what political tactics should be specified for his band of newly elected loyalist legislators.

Negotiations with IMF

Even as an International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation led by Nathan Porter began a four-day review of Pakistan’s current loan program in Islamabad (14 March), new Finance Minister Muhd Aurangzeb indicated Pakistan would make a case for `a longer and larger’ loan program, once the modalities to get an additional $1.1 billion under the last ongoing stand-by arrangement (SBA) are fulfilled. During the discussions, the IMF is understood to have flagged concerns of not enough having been done by the Pakistani side for much needed structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, energy sector viability and functioning of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Informed observers noted, interest rates and energy prices may pose major minefields in the negotiations ahead as also debt restructuring, especially domestic debt. The amount the federal government pays in debt-service payments is now larger than the net federal revenues that define its total resource envelope.

Meanwhile, it has been business as usual with no immediate fissures in civil-military relations surfacing. A controversial appointment of bureaucrat Zafar Mahmood as Indus River Waters Authority (IRSA) Chairman had to be withdrawn after the PPP and the Sindh government objected.

Air Chief’s tenure extended

On 17 March, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif extended, by one-year Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu’s term as Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) Chief, which was due to expire on March 31. Though buttressed by his biradari (Jat) and political connections (elder brother Ch Naseer Abbas elected MNA from Gujrat on a PML-N ticket), the decision seemed unusual in the backdrop of a controversy marking his tenure. Following the attack by terrorists on Mianwali Air Base on 4 November, 2023 a ‘White Paper’ allegedly leaked by insiders in PAF had claimed large scale corruption, nepotism indulged in by Sidhu, and kickbacks in a $1.6 billion deal to sell the JF 17 fighter aircraft to Azerbaijan.

Though from the fighter pilot stream, Sidhu had not flown Pakistan’s showpiece F-16s, only Mirage III and V aircraft. After the allegations were highlighted in write-ups by noted Defence academic, Ayesha Siddiqa and a video blog by US based blogger, Wajahat Saeed, court martials of several serving and retired Air Force officers came to light including that of AVM Chaudhry Ahsan Rafiq, Deputy Chief of Air Staff (Operations).

Babar Sidhu had been backed by then Army Chief Bajwa (also a Jat) at the time of his elevation as Air Chief in 2021. The last Air Chief who got extension was ACM Anwar Shamim, more than 40 years back, in 1981, when Gen Zia ul Haq was Martial Law Administrator. This extension could not have happened without the backing of current Army Chief, Gen Asim Munir. Expectedly, tongues started wagging with some journalists tweeting that the smaller extension could presage a bigger one, come November, 2025, when Asim Munir’s retirement looms!

Rumours of DG, ISI going as US Ambassador

On 8 March, journalist Aijaz Syed claimed in a video blog that Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum, Director General, Inter-Services Intelligence (DG, ISI), who has been on an open ended extension in service from his retirement date in November, 2023, was being considered for appointment as Pakistan’s new Ambassador to the United States. This rumour was subsequently denied by circles close to the military establishment, albeit in an indirect or lukewarm manner.

Civil society dismay persists over the election mandate being disregarded even as the common public brace for greater economic belt-tightening and hardships, especially for the lower income groups in days to come.

The writer is a former special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views_.