Shadow Warrior | What’s driving Trump’s U-turns?

There were two good reasons to support Donald Trump for President of the US: one, that he did not go to war in his first term, and two, that he was the very antithesis of the Deep State-controlled former President Joe Biden.

Alas, just less than six months into his re-incarnation as the 47th President, there is reason to wonder if the first claim is no longer accurate: the Ukraine war is dragging on, and so is the Gaza war; Trump’s role in the India-Pakistan skirmish was murky; and he got the US into the Iran-Israel war as a belligerent, so it’s hard to portray him as anti-war anymore.

On the other hand, almost all the initiatives Trump came up with (although in characteristic bull-in-the-china-shop fashion) that could have potentially damaged the Deep State are now being rolled back. It appears the Deep State is back in charge.

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Consider the much-ballyhooed trade war with China. Personally, I thought the goal of bringing manufacturing back to the US was laudable, although difficult. We saw a whole lot of sabre-rattling. But after all the smoke settled, it appears that China, the purported target of the tariff wars, is now sitting pretty with a trade deal that sets 55 per cent tariffs (including a universal 10 per cent, 20 per cent because of fentanyl, and 25 per cent left over from Trump’s first term, according to Grok).

In other words, Trump folded because the Chinese were holding his feet to the fire over rare-earths, etc, where they have a quasi-monopoly. The rude meme TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) was current for a while.

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There has been a series of things that together show that Trump, despite all the bluster, is not that much in control. It is likely that the Deep State has co-opted him; on what grounds we will have to wait and see. The Deep State is nothing if not resourceful. It may be blackmailing him, or it may be dangling crypto profits or a Nobel Peace Prize in front of Trump. Who knows what other carrots and sticks it wields?

The abrupt departure of Elon Musk and the equally abrupt demise of Doge were clues that something was going on. What started with a lot of public support has been quietly trashed. It is obvious to anyone that the Deep State has entrenched itself through sweetheart deals and indirection (example, USAID as a mechanism for distributing goodies to pals) to the extent that official US foreign policy is merely an inconvenience for the Deep State’s actual policies.

So now the Deep State is quietly rampaging again, and it has defeated Musk. We saw disturbing signs over the last few weeks, pretty much ever since Musk was defenestrated. There was a tilt towards Pakistan during the four-day skirmish, followed by the embrace of Field Marshal Asim Munir. Yes, it is true that this can be explained away with the idea that American nuclear material is being held by US troops on Pakistani soil.

Those who are worried about India’s long-term interests were naturally shocked by this volte-face, but it just goes to show that everybody pursues their national interest, friendships be damned. India is beginning to learn that truism and not getting involved in everybody’s problems, as it were, clutching its pearls, clucking, and lecturing as in the old Nehruvian days. This is definite progress. India no longer looks like a laughing stock (despite the “pajeet” “smelly” type propaganda unleashed against it, presumably by the CCP and Deep State.)

Then came the humiliation of Tulsi Gabbard, the handpicked Director of National Intelligence, whom Trump contradicted directly in regard to intelligence about the Iranian nukes. After that, there was the Iran-Israel 12-day war; India consoled itself that the Trump embrace of Munir was because the US needed to have Pakistan available for US sorties into Iran.

After the Iran-Israel war, there has been the curious spectacle of the Epstein Files that disappeared. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who had earlier said she had the files on her desk, is now forced to eat her words. FBI Director Kash Patel is made to look silly. Exactly, why would that be? There are dark rumours about who’s on the Epstein list, but, ok, they’re just rumours.

This reminds me of the incredible circus over Hunter Biden’s laptop. Everybody knew it was highly compromised, but the FBI stonewalled all investigations. Instead, it peddled the prurient fiction of the Steele dossier. Diversionary tactics, I suppose.

And oh, by the way, how come the FBI has not breathed a word about the young man who shot Trump on the campaign trail and whose assassin bullet missed Trump’s cranium by millimetres? It’s hard to believe that he was an innocent lone wolf. Who was funding him? I contend it was the Deep State. Lee Harvey Oswald comes to mind.

The sad fact of the matter is that, despite a promising start, Trump now appears to be bogged down in distractions like the Nobel Peace Prize (dear Norwegians, just give it to him and let’s just move on. After all, you gave it to warmongers Henry Kissinger, Yasser Arafat, Theodore Roosevelt, and Barack Obama. Trump is almost in the same illustrious club.)

The U-turns on tariffs and trade show that Trump is beginning to see the reality that he cannot wish away de-industrialisation, as King Canute memorably learnt when he ordered the waves to cease and desist. His goal of bringing back manufacturing to the US is laudable, but it is not clear if that will happen in more than a token manner. The reality of being held hostage by China’s supply chain is also dawning on him. 30 years of fecklessness in allowing China to run riot are now coming home to roost.

Dedollarisation is happening as well. While I don’t believe certain doomsday scenarios about precipitate American decline, recession, and collapse, it is possible the US will become less of a solitary colossus throwing its weight around. It is this prospect of multipolarity and the determined pursuit of national interests that India should focus on. The Deep State is inscrutable, and it apparently now has Donald Trump in thrall to itself.

The writer has been a conservative columnist for over 25 years. His academic interest is innovation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.