SCO Islamabad Summit: How Jihad Factory destroys Pakistan's prospects

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting would have passed most Indians by without a glance, were it not being held in Pakistan. After all, the grouping meets regularly without apparently much of a grand declaration that means anything, so there’s really nothing to report. But it is in Pakistan, and our much admired External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will participate, with the expected quirky quotes and strong articulation. Apart from that, the meeting, the first such plurilateral to be held in Pakistan in a very long time, is being conducted at a time of extraordinary turmoil within the country.

The SCO

The SCO is rather a mystery. It is inevitably China-dominated, having found its feet in that country, with the original five being China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and later Uzbekistan, when it got its formal name. Originally meant to sort out border conflicts—which Beijing did to its advantage with other neighbours—it expanded in 2017 to include India and Pakistan in one go, both promising not to raise bilateral issues at the meetings. Then came Belarus, a strong ally of Russia, which makes Moscow a lot more comfortable with the proceedings.

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India had earlier hosted the summit of the higher body, the Heads of State, chaired by the Prime Minister in virtual format. That declaration showed shrewd Indian priorities, including startups and innovation, traditional medicine, and shared Buddhist heritage. Take that last one. It would hardly have gone down well with China. Traditional medicine also transcends boundaries, especially between India and Tibet. The New Delhi declaration omitted all of this but had grand language on “commitment to formation of a more representative, democratic, just, and multipolar world order based on… international law, multilateralism, etc., with a central coordinating role of the UN". All of which means nothing at all. Iran joined the organisation where India is the only member that is democratic.

There are 14 dialogue partners, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bahrain, Cambodia, Egypt, Kuwait, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Türkiye, and the UAE. Afghanistan is also a partner, but it has been left out by a peevish Pakistan. But here’s the point. The SCO is a growing child, and that worries the West. And questions to Jaishankar on this have been repeatedly raised in US think tank events.

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Weightage

The importance given to the SCO is evident in quite literally the weight of its delegations. The Russian delegation had 76, while the Chinese had just 15. But that included Premier Li Qiang on a four-day visit. Russia sent Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. All this has Rawalpindi biting its nails. Earlier, the Russian ambassador to Pakistan was targeted in a bomb blast on a trip to Swat. Later, the Karachi attack by the Balochistan Liberation Army on a convoy carrying Chinese to Port Qasim—the 11th of a total of 17 by various groups—would have led to a rethink in Beijing. But the probability is that a large clutch of Chinese security have also arrived earlier and taken over the city.

Don’t forget that Islamabad is part of the ‘safe city project’—essentially a large surveillance project that works hugely for China in stifling any dissent. It’s also profitable, with Dahua being the second-largest surveillance camera company in the world, selling to over 180 countries. Karachi just stepped into this program recently. If the whole network is not in Chinese hands by now, then Li would never have stepped on the plane. Meanwhile, India sent a four-man delegation. Not a prime-time game for Delhi.

Business as usual: Pakistan’s accusations

Meanwhile, Pakistan has taken the bit between its teeth with its Foreign Minister Ahsan Iqbal accusing India of trying to disrupt the SCO meeting and of supporting the ‘agenda’ of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), who wants to hold yet another protest—the last one had thousands flowing in to paralyse major cities. That’s quite an accusation. It seems Islamabad has forgotten the whole sequence of events, where its ‘selected’ Imran Khan went off the rails (as everyone who knew him had predicted he would) and the onslaught of arrests and complete abdication of even minimal democratic principles after the May 9 protests. That included using military courts to try civilians after swiftly changing the Pakistan Army Act 1952.

India and Pakistan

Meanwhile, the focus in the media is on what this visit means for India-Pakistan ties and Jaishankar’s visit being the first in a decade. But the media forgets that not only did FM Bilawal Bhutto attend the Goa meet, but that a Pakistan delegation also attended the meeting of the RATS (Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure) in Delhi last year. If that isn’t irony, nothing is. Meanwhile, neither can raise contentious issues at the event itself. That didn’t prevent then NSA Moeed Yusuf from airing an absurd map claiming not just Kashmir but also Junagadh and Sir Creek as part of its territory. It also left Ladakh virtually borderless, but that’s another story.

In Goa, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto chose a presser granted by the host state to raise all issues. Bad manners at any level. Which is why Jaishankar made it a point to say he was a ‘courteous and civil person’. In other words, no backhanded tricks. While neither is seeking a bilateral, a spate of contentious issues lurk. India has already called for a renegotiation of the Indus Water Treaty after Pakistan continued its repeated harassment—there is really no other word—with objections raised most recently to the Ratle and Kishenganga projects (both in Kashmir, which rather question their apparent support for the Kashmiris) and went to the Permanent Court of Arbitration even while a ‘Neutral Expert’ was going into the matter.

The treaty requires a graded response with three levels: first with the Indus Water Commissioners meeting, second with a neutral expert, and finally with the court at the Hague. Pakistan’s actions violated this, and India refused to attend the hearing at the court. This issue has to be faced upfront at sometime, especially as climate change dangers lurk. Both India and Pakistan are likely to be adversely affected as the State of Global Water Resources Report rings alarm bells about rivers drying up at the fastest rate in three decades. Perhaps time for both to think of ways of conserving water and agricultural innovation.

There is much more to discuss. Pakistan’s dire economic status would benefit much as a transit area for trade, pipelines, and the like. But for that, it has to close down its Jihad factories. As of now, Jaish-e-Mohammad is expanding its infrastructure, while the Lashar remains active. Rawalpindi has yet to learn that its patronage of terrorism has backfired. Even as the SCO meeting opened, an attack in Bannu killed four policemen. The toll is about 2-3 security forces being hit on a daily basis. Not a single neighbour of Pakistan—now even including China—is spared the outflow of its four-decade-old terrorism policies.

As the SCO debates esoteric issues like peace and goodwill on earth, it is also pushing connectivity and is dead set against terrorism of any kind. That message has to reach the echo chamber, which is the operations room of the Pakistani army. The world has shifted gears. It has no place for the likes of Iran, who has made proxies its first line of defence, or the incessant bleating on Kashmir that is a trademark of countries with little else to say. In other words, Pakistanis need to demand a ‘Pakistan first’ policy, where it can use geopolitical forums to get the best possible for upgrading its economy and the lives of its people. Think technology, AI, trade, and green alternatives. There’s much to be done, and done very quickly, to even survive. If not, Pakistan may well become a passing and rather unpleasant footnote of history.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.