Short-sightedness of Saudi-Pakistan defence pact and mirage of Islamic Nato

The air raid carried out by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on the Hamas leadership in the Legtaifiya district of Doha on September 9, 2025, makes the Arab world jittery. Qatar’s nervousness is not a surprise, but the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries joining the chorus to express solidarity means something. The stirrings in the Arab world have already begun.

The indications of a new confederacy are perceptible apart from the condemnation, rhetoric, and statements. The anti-Israel axis is not a new phenomenon in the Arab world. Such confederacies were stitched in the past to demonstrate Arab world unity. The past may repeat, but it will do so differently. But to repeat it in the manner in which it was in the past is less likely.

The Arab world has undergone significant changes over the past two decades. Priorities have changed. Interests vary. Besides geopolitical contradictions, there are deep divides along ideological and religious lines. To establish uniformity is difficult. It is also difficult to assess how much is driven by optics and how much by genuine collaboration. The line between optics and urgency is blurred and complex.

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Saudi-Pakistan Strange Bonhomie

Meanwhile, a new development has emerged: a joint statement from Riyadh, the outcome of a meeting between Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The usual diplomatic niceties between the two countries around Islamic solidarity and bonds of brotherhood, historical ties, strategic and defence cooperation, etc, are fine and invite no serious attention.

What is more concerning is the joint statement, which mentions, ‘Any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.’ This is a loaded statement with layered implications. The ‘Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement’ between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a paradox. Moreover, structuring the Cold War Nato-style defence model is an anomaly in the contemporary world order.

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The proposition of Islamic Nato, which stands on the ideas of Islam and Pakistan’s nuclear assets, may enhance Pakistan’s diplomatic heft. Beyond that, it does not seem to achieve anything else. It does not require any extra logic to understand this.

However, Pakistan is a failed state. It cannot manage its home turf properly. To think of an Islamic Nato with Pakistan at its helm because it is a nuclear state is a wishful thing and a sleepwalk into disaster. Hope good sense will soon prevail in Riyadh, and it will do the course correction.

Wider Implications

India will not take the above statement lightly. India cannot misread this statement. Pakistan is India’s arch adversary. Pakistan, as a terror state, requires no confirmation. It is a terror nest and a terror-exporting agency. Saudi Arabia-Pakistan bonhomie will not be ignored by India. The question remains: if India repeats the likes of Operation Sindoor in the future as a response to Pakistan’s misadventure, will Saudi Arabia misconstrue it as an aggression against it? If Saudi Arabia practises this kind of parallelism in the future, it will severely affect the India-Saudi relationship.

India is the fourth-largest economy and is projected to become the third-largest in the near future. Its leadership role in the Global South is irrefutable. The India-Saudi Arabia relationship has increased significantly over the past decade. Interdependence is impressive and cannot be easily decoupled. Saudi Arabia cannot throw India lock, stock, and barrel, shift to Pakistan’s side, and antagonise India.

Therefore, observing how much sincerity or seriousness this statement involves is important. Be that as it may, India will definitely observe closely the Saudi-Pakistan move. It will prepare its diplomatic counter-move if it goes beyond the scope of optics. India cannot take Pakistan lightly at any cost. It will intensify its observation of emerging developments in West Asia.

Saudi-Pakistan Melodrama

The joint statement appears more optics and showcases the bonds of brotherhood through the Sunni Islamic link or commonality. This statement is akin to a mere platitude because the meeting achieved nothing except making this provocative statement. It was tactically crafted to send a message or start a media battle. Beyond that, it means nothing and achieves nothing. The centrepiece of this meeting was to make a provocative statement. The purpose of this meeting was achieved by doing that.

To read too much into it is to give serious thought to Pakistan’s travesty. Saudi Arabia found someone who was least effective in passing a statement to show solidarity with Qatar and the Arab world. Pakistan is easily available to get anything and everything done through it. Saudi Arabia chose the least consequential partner to get its message delivered. It didn’t find any other country in the Arab world to make an impactful statement.

Except for India, no other country will give any credence to this statement, and least of all is Israel. For Israel, it is just a statement, the likes of which are made day in and day out against it. Riyadh seems to be playing a tactical game of making a statement without appearing confrontational. It knows Pakistan’s camaraderie with the US. The entire drama of statement-making may have received tacit support from the US. This assumption does not sound far-fetched. Islamabad is not in a condition to decouple from the US’s sphere of influence.

The melodrama seems to have been done under the US’s tutelage or with shadow consent. Saudi Arabia has its own quota of conflict with the Houthis. The Hamas-Houthi-Hezbollah confederacy to destabilise West Asia does not benefit the aspirational Saudi Arabia and its Vision 2030. The aftermath of Israel’s attack on Doha saw the joint session of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation seek coordination from the member states to unite against Israel. The Saudi-Pakistan defence ties may be an extension of a shadow unity against Israel.

Nuclear Gimmick

There is no doubt that Islamabad possesses nuclear assets. It is the only Islamic country to have a nuclear warhead. It does not mean that Pakistan can use and distribute it as per its whims and fancies. To expect that it will share the nuclear assets with the Islamic countries and bring Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries under the nuclear umbrella and guarantee protection is a fanciful thought.

Iran’s misadventure in the domain of nuclear asset acquisition has paid it a heavy price. Pakistan is no doubt a rogue state. Misadventurism is its DNA, but to resort to nuclear diplomacy because it has one is counterintuitive and a Faustian pact. Saudi Arabia commits itself to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. It is a signatory to the treaty. It cannot acquire one. It may fund Islamabad to enhance the scope of its nuclear facility. This is easier said than done. Iran’s tango with it has paid a heavy price. Riyadh may not go along that path.

Possibility of Islamic Alliance

Can an Islamic alliance be possible in the aftermath of Israel’s attack on Doha? It seems impossible. Memory of this unity in the past has not given anything dramatically different. Anti-Israel animus united the Arab world in the past but could not achieve anything significant. But today, West Asia is different, and stitching unity among a motley group of countries around the anti-Israel cause does not look possible. It is possible to make a joint statement and condemn Israel, but to put boots on the ground collectively does not seem viable.

The Arab world is not uniform. Islamic countries are not homogeneous. Shia-Sunni sectarian conflict is not an easy schism to settle down. Geopolitics is complex in West Asia. Hamas-Houthi-Hezbollah comradery has inflicted instability in the region. Hezbollah has ensured Lebanon’s downfall. The Houthis’ antagonism against Saudi Arabia does not seem to be ending anytime soon. West Asia self-injures itself through internecine warfare. Can Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Qatar and other Arab countries come together to act in unison to destabilise Israel? It is impossible to imagine such a grand convergence.

Jajati K Pattnaik is a professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Chandan K Panda is an assistant professor at Rajiv Gandhi University (a central university), Itanagar. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.