 "Russia’s pivot to South China Sea: Decoding Putin’s North Korea, Vietnam visits")
Russia, until late 2021, maintained a neutral position over the South China Sea (SCS) dispute and believed that extra-regional powers should not interfere in an extremely local dispute. Having said that, Moscow itself is done with that stance. In June, President Vladimir Putin was on a two-country Asia tour, where he signed agreements and held talks with North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) and Vietnam. These two countries are critical for their geopolitical pertinence in the SCS region.
First of all, North Korea and Vietnam share a close relationship with China in the region. Secondly, Moscow and Beijing have also been making headlines for their growing proximity.
Russia’s Newfound Interest in the South China Sea
Putin’s latest move released from his quiver of strategies is to shift the area of contestation from Ukraine to the South China Sea. SCS is a heavily contested region between China and surrounding island nations like Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. To explain briefly, China has been making sweeping claims of sovereignty over the whole of the Spratly and Paracel Islands, translating to the entire maritime SCS region. This directly threatens the sovereignty of the other smaller island nations involved.
If one keeps the issue of islands aside, Russia directly has no connection but has agreed to support China and Russia’s friend, Vietnam, with military aid against adversaries. Russia has decided to play devil’s advocate, favouring China here just because the US has deepening interests in the region. The US has been cushioning its ally, ie, the Philippines, with military support by regularly conducting exercises in the SCS region. This is perceived by Beijing as unlawful and creating disharmony in an otherwise ‘peaceful’ SCS region.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsIn the US’ defence, it argues that:
“The People’s Republic of China’s actions are destabilising to the region and show clear disregard for international law. According to an international tribunal’s legally binding decision issued in July 2016, the PRC has no lawful maritime claims to the waters around Second Thomas Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal is a low tide feature clearly within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. As provided under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention, the 2016 arbitral decision is final and legally binding on the PRC and the Philippines, and the United States calls upon the PRC to abide by the ruling and desist from its dangerous and destabilising conduct.” - Press Statement by US Department of State (March 2024)
Cold War 2.0
Russia seeks to further destabilise the US in its extended neighbourhood. From Russia’s perspective, the US used Ukraine to threaten Putin by bringing NATO to its doorstep. Now, Russia is aiming to threaten the US and its allies by supporting China, Vietnam and North Korea. This shakes up the balance of power in the region. But does it also bring back Cold War 2.0? Wherein both the major powers will engage in proxy wars on a political, propaganda and economic front?
This also brings China and Russia together, who share a common goal to tackle US interference in the region. The US in its bid to establish ‘democratic’ values, stability, freedom of navigation, and the right to lawful commercial activity is now being challenged heavily, so from here on, it won’t be easy.
Furthermore, the war in Ukraine is also far from over. Every day both sides get bombed and attacked via drones and civilian casualties are on the rise. US-backed Ukraine and Russia have found themselves in a deadlock in the Eastern European region, with no mutually agreeable solution.
Russia, amidst facing international sanctions on multiple fronts, has decided to lure the US into facing another proxy in the Indo-Pacific; this time with China, Vietnam and North Korea’s help. This in turn is driving China’s ambition too, to teach the US a lesson of not stepping into concerns that aren’t domestic to it.
The Actual Price
Sadly, the downside of being an ally of any major power is suffering the blowback of the entire ordeal. With or without realising, be it countries like Ukraine, Vietnam, North Korea, or even the Philippines, Taiwan (Republic of China) and South Korea for that matter, end up bearing the brunt of this extended Cold War 2.0 proxy war. The 20th Century has enough lessons in the forms of Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam etc why any small country should not be a proxy ground for any two superpowers to fight their wars on. Three major powers, Russia, China and the US will be using these littoral and island nations as mere pawns to fuel their great-power ambitions.
Nuclear Risk, Korean Peninsula, and Vietnam
Beginning with the Doomsday Clock, which is currently set at ‘90 seconds to midnight’, closest it has ever been. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists have taken into consideration the nuclear risk these three major powers pose to humanity. They have consistently been spending staggering amounts to modernise their nuclear arsenals, exacerbating the ever-present risk of nuclear warfare due to oversight or mistrust.
On the other hand, Putin and Kim Jong-Un rekindled their Cold War-era friendship by signing a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement earlier this month which stated, “..In case any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession…”
North Korea’s Official Press Release
South Korea, an ally of the US, hasn’t taken this development well. Seoul is now considering arms supply to Kyiv as a reaction to this news. South Korea’s President, Yoon Sook Yeol in a press meet said, “It’s absurd that two parties with a history of launching wars of invasion — the Korean War and the war in Ukraine — are now vowing mutual military cooperation on the premise of a preemptive attack by the international community that will never happen.”
Vietnam’s relationship with Russia is special for multiple reasons. First, Moscow is the largest supplier of arms and ammunition to Hanoi. Second, Russia’s interest in oil exploration technologies supports Vietnam’s sovereignty assertions in the disputed South China Sea. Putin’s latest visit to Vietnam resulted in the signing of 11 pacts which included:
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the roadmap for the implementation of the Nuclear Science and Technology Research Center in Vietnam between Vietnam’s Ministry of Science and Technology and Russia’s Rosatom State Atomiс Energy Corporation.
MoUs on scientific, commercial, educational, and shared development between two countries.
Putin emphasises developing a reliable security architecture in the region by not relying on the use of force; and peaceful dispute resolutions with no room for ‘closed military-political blocs’, as quoted by Russia’s Izvestia. Hanoi seems to be in flux, as it is caught between America’s anti-Russia rhetoric. It directly translates to Hanoi’s hesitancy in conducting trade with Moscow. Russia is largely interested in setting strategic markets (energy, particularly nuclear, gas, and transportation networks) with Vietnam, but the Vietnamese side does not allow Russia access to them due to Western pressure.
Should Taiwan Be Worried?
Surely, Taiwan would have reasons to be worried. First, It is closely allied with the US. Second, Beijing is inching closer to annexing Taipei by sirening warning signs in the forms of military and aerial drills far too close to Taipei’s frontier. Third, there’s been a legitimate fear since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war; ie, if Russia can do that to Ukraine, the same thing may happen to Taiwan done by China.
Earlier in the past, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made pro-PRC comments, describing Taiwan as an “integral part of China” and an “internal affair of the People’s Republic of China.” He also stated that Moscow and Beijing were united in rejecting any alleged foreign interference, referring to the US, which has rejected China’s claims and continues to support Taiwan. This comment comes in despite Moscow and Taipei not having diplomatic relations.
Conclusion
Russia’s latest visit to the region has ruffled some feathers in the SCS as well as the wider Indo-Pacific region. Putin has now tilted the stakes onto his side by outmanoeuvring the US by getting North Korea and Vietnam aboard.
China is observing and happy that Russia is on its side, to challenge the West’s growing influence in the region. The emotions are evident in Beijing’s state media, Global Times’s coverage of Russia’s two-country tour, calling it ‘ Washington’s annoyance’ and speaking against Russia’s frozen assets as, ‘violation of principle of sovereign immunity’.
Even if one assumes that nothing concrete could come out of this tour, one can at least consider this as the newest addition to the Russia-US threat perception matrix. Russia’s influence in the SCS might be limited today, but tomorrow isn’t promised. On the other hand, island nations have a lot to lose if they indeed end up becoming proxy grounds for Cold War 2.0.
Gargi Shanbhag works as a Research Assistant at Chanakya University, Bengaluru. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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