 "Russia shows resilience despite western propaganda, bouncing back strong")
After two years of very significant Western financial and military equipment support to Ukraine, economic sanctions and pessimistic predictions about Russia, the West is reconciling that Russia will come out the victor. Like many major nations, Russia did face losses in the Crimean War (1853-56), the Russo-Japanese War (1904-5), World War I (1914-18) and the war in Afghanistan 1979-88. But there are examples of Russia extricating itself from the massive invasions by Napoleon (1812), and Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa (1941). Russians were the first to reach Berlin in May 1945.
Russia is a continent-sized country with the gift of geography and natural wealth. Many consider it a low-productivity exporter of natural resources, but at the same time, it is a modern nation-state with a powerful military and nuclear arsenal. It has among the highest literacy and a great cultural sphere. They continue to have a successful military-industrial complex and advanced hypersonic and space programs.
Russia has a stagnant and ageing population. Their industrial capacity and economy do not match their global status. The Russian psyche is often characterised by extreme patience, almost passivity, which gives them the ability to embrace and overcome extreme deprivation. Notwithstanding what the West projects, or what Donald Rumsfeld calls the “unknown unknowns”, Russia will remain a significant global power for the foreseeable future.
Advantage of geography and natural wealth
Russia is the largest country in the world, encompassing more than one-eighth of Earth’s inhabited land area spread across Europe and Asia, having 11 time zones, and shares borders with 16 nations. Russia, alongside Canada and the United States, is one of only three countries with a coast along three oceans. West to east, it is around 9,000 km and 4,500 km from North to South. Russia is larger than three continents of the world.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsRussia’s population in 2023 was 147 million, and the gross domestic product (GDP) was $1.924 trillion ($5.056 trillion PPP), ranked 12th in the world as per Forbes. Russia’s natural resources comprising coal, natural gas, oil, gold, timber, uranium and other rare earth metals, were estimated to be close to $75 trillion in 2021, amounting to over 20 per cent of the world’s reserves. They amount to 95.7 per cent of Russia’s national wealth. Russia is ranked first in the world by gas reserves (32 per cent of the world’s reserves, 30 per cent of world production), second in oil production (10 per cent share), third in coal reserves, first in iron ore, second in tin, third in lead, first in gold reserves and leader in wood provision, among many others. Russia has the world’s largest diamond reserves.
The harsh weather means only one-sixth of the land is used for farming and agriculture contributes only around 5 per cent to Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Military power
The Russian Armed Forces have 1.32 million active personnel. It maintains the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons and possesses the world’s second-largest fleet of ballistic missile submarines. They, alongside the USA and China, are the only ones operating strategic bombers. It became the first country to use hypersonic weapons in combat. In 2023, Russia had the world’s third-highest military expenditure at approximately $86.4 billion, albeit a big jump due Ukraine war.
Despite a huge advantage in numbers against Ukraine, Russia did get bogged down. Its suppression of air defences (SEAD) campaign was questioned. It lost a significant of aircraft and tanks. The loss of flagship Cruiser “Moskva” to cruise missiles was a big blow. Ukrainian Navy attacked the Crimean Bridge, with two suicide sea drones, damaging a span of the road bridge, showed Russian vulnerabilities. Severe logistical failures also greatly impacted the operational performance of Russian troops. Many have questioned Russian military doctrine and tactics. The fact that Russia had to use the state-funded private army Wagner Group for operations in Ukraine was also initially questioned by some. According to some reports, endemic corruption within the Russian Armed Forces has had a major impact on Russia’s ability to effectively project hard power.
Yet the ground reality is that Russian military equipment strength matches that of all European nations put together, despite them being backed by the USA as part of NATO. Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons has been successfully used as a deterrent.
Arms exports
Russia was once a major arms exporter, and fuelled by China and India, at its peak around 2012 was selling as much arms as the US. The sales were 37 per cent in aviation equipment, 27 per cent in land-based weapons, 18 per cent naval equipment and 18 per cent in anti-aircraft systems. The most sold weaponry was Sukhoi and MiG fighters, air defence systems, helicopters, tanks, armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. Russian arms were exported to 60 countries. The most significant supplies (43 per cent) went to countries in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.
Russia accounted for 22 per cent of global arms sales in 2013-17, that figure further dropped to 6 per cent in 2018-22. In the period 2018-22, USA sales went up to 40 per cent. The top three importers of Russian arms in 2018-22 were India (31 per cent), China (23 per cent), and Egypt (9.3 per cent). Due Ukraine war, the arms exports in 2023 were 70 per cent lower than in 2010. The figures have also come down because China is gradually becoming less dependent and India has started diversifying with increased indigenisation, and significant arms imports from the USA and other Western countries. Russia’s state-backed defence industry employs approximately 3.5 million people as of 2024 and accounts for 20 per cent of all manufacturing jobs in Russia. Problems in the industry include a high level of debt, inflation and the lack of qualified personnel.
Yet, New York Times has reported that Russia successfully overcame the Western sanctions and its missile production now exceeded pre-war levels. Russia now also produces more ammunition than the United States and Europe and it can manufacture 200 tanks and two million units of ammunition in a year. Putin has claimed that the production of main armoured vehicles has increased by 4 times in one year. CNN also reported in September 2023 that Russia produces ammunition 7 times cheaper and 8 times faster than Europe. Russia is now producing suicide drones in very large numbers. These surplus capacities may support exports later.
Pushed into Chinese arms
Under economic sanctions from the West, Russia had to increase diplomatic and economic reliance on China. Also, China has supplied drones and military components. China is well-placed to replace Europe. Much to its dislike, considering economic and overall national power Russia is already being seen as China’s junior partner. This is not a good idea for either Russia or the global community. Russia was no immediate threat to the West and the USA could have avoided a dual containment situation. Russia’s alignment with China on Taiwan, or with North Korea can have disruptive or destabilising effects. Russia could also support an anti-QUAD grouping. Or even increase military supply pressure on India.
Russia and China can act co-ordinately in Central Asia and Caucasus through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Later China could become more powerful in Russia’s backyard. Russia which shares a large border with China has traditionally seen China with suspicion. China emerging a superpower next door is not of interest to Russia. The West should have taken advantage of this sentiment and wooed Russia even it meant not expanding NATO till Ukraine. They have to choose between China and Russia as to who is their real competitor.
Who after Putin
President Vladimir Putin is an all-powerful figure who could be in power for a lifetime. He has pushed through legislation for being able to stay on for many more years. He already won the Russian presidential elections that happened on 15–17 March 2024. A similar situation seems in China. Putin has been pushing revival of Russian greatness, albeit with sobering realities. But everyone ages, Putin is 71. Who will succeed Putin, if and when the eventuality occurs? Will Russia collapse into chaos when Putin goes? Names of some possible successors are doing the rounds.
Dmitry Medvedev has a unique experience as a Putin surrogate, becoming president in 2008 when Putin could not seek re-election because of term limits. Although known for low visibility Medvedev’s prominence soared in 2022 when he became one of the most vehement defenders of the war in Ukraine. The posture appealed to Russian nationalists.
Alexei Dyumin, Governor of the Tula region, has been tipped for years as the possible Putin successor due to his close relationship with the president, including serving as his bodyguard, and had once dramatically saved Putin from a bear. Dyumin was the leader of Special Forces of the military intelligence agency, in Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Sergei Sobyanin is the mayor of Moscow since 2010 and has dramatically improved the city. Mikhail Mishustin is Russia’s prime minister since 2020, and the automatic successor in the hierarchy if something were to happen to Putin. He is a quiet technocrat, who has received approval ratings of up to 70 per cent.
Nikolai Patrushev, like Putin was born in Leningrad and became head of the Federal Security Service, the main KGB successor agency, in 1999, when Putin became prime minister. Now head of the National Security Council, he echoes and sometimes amplifies Putin’s hawkish views and animosity toward the West. Like Putin, he also denounces Western neo-liberal ideas and defends the preservation of the country’s traditions.
Russia will resurrect
It is Western obduracy that Russia, a member of the UNSC and the secondmost powerful nation in the world has been removed from the Council of Europe and its European Court of Human Rights, various free trade agreements, the global banking system and charged with crimes. They will relent and reverse very soon.
The first challenge for Russia is to push its economy forward. This is possible by optimum processing and exploitation of natural wealth. Increase its manufacturing base. Russia also needs to catch up on new technologies. They need to neutralise the poor demography by seeking close to a million working hands from countries like India to galvanise the industry and farm sector. They also need to encourage privatisation and foreign direct investment. Russia’s best and brightest flee, so there is a need to create opportunities to stop the brain drain. Domestic production has to go up and Russia’s craze for imported goods needs curbing. Also, corruption needs to be controlled.
While the West waits for some “black swan scenarios,” and internal political upheaval, or a Soviet-like collapse, that is not likely because Putin and his approach remain popular. The contending Putin successors have similar nationalistic views. Most Russians are clear that their country is fighting not with Ukraine, but with NATO, and are thus galvanised. Without NATO support, Russia would have completed the ‘Special Operation’ much earlier.
Russia has successfully survived the shock of Western sanctions and has been able to reorient its economy towards other export markets as well as develop import substitution through local production. Many nearby countries helped Russia avoid sanctions. Even European countries continue to trade with Russia despite sanctions. The rise of China, India and the Middle East has given Russia a chance to reorient its oil and gas export routes and seek financial gains as world energy prices continue to rise. Thus, the West’s initial hope of bringing Russia to its knees did not materialise.
Russia has to regain/retain influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus, a space that China and Turkey are getting into. The final solution to the Ukraine conflict would see Ukraine territorially divided and would still be prevented from joining NATO. Energy-deficient Europe will find ways to compromise. American public opinion is already against sinking any more funds in a war that cannot be won.
Russia’s economy, society and regime is already adapted to the war and live in its own reality. The Ukraine war may end at current ground positions. Victory measured by Ukraine’s defeat or by Russia’s retention of the currently occupied Ukrainian territory will boost the Putin regime’s legitimacy and popularity and thereby convince Russian elites, with or without Putin that continued expansion is both desirable and obligatory. Ukraine’s defeat will also show NATO in a poor light. Belarus might become a Russian province. Efforts may be made to get Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Kazakhstan under greater Russian influence. An invasion of Estonia and Latvia, with significant Russian-speaking minorities, could also be a scenario.
Russia may align itself with the broader Orient, e.g. China, India, Iran and Turkey, thus creating a power alternative to the West. Russia will try to use the war to weaken unity in Western societies and undermine Western relations with countries of the so-called Global South. China will try to capitalise on anti-Western sentiment. That would be the start of another Cold War.
It is in the world’s interest that nuclear Russia does not weaken. China wants Russia to be stable and as an instrument of confrontation with the West, so that their focus and energies are away from Taiwan. It also needs Russia’s hydrocarbons. Western “realists” have already begun winning over “hawks”. Russia will re-emerge. The West will be a party to it. In 2030, Russia will not be radically different from Russia today. Far from imploding, Russia will resurrect and be a global power to contend with.
Globally, the consequences of Russia’s victory in Ukraine would be far-reaching. Inside Russia, they would be dramatic. It will vindicate and strengthen Putin. Putin will leave powerful residues behind him.
For India, Russia has been a time-tested friend and a significant source of arms and energy. While it may not be of great help in China dynamics, it will keep needing India as much as India needs it. India’s closeness with USA in the Indo-Pacific to balance China is balanced by the approach of “strategic autonomy”.
The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._
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