Rising terror attacks in Jammu signal new threats

India witnessed a historic third-term oath for Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier in June. The same month saw more than seven terrorist attacks in Jammu & Kashmir, killing nine pilgrims and one CRPF jawan. Now in July, according to PTI, in a shootout that took place in the Doda’s Desa forest area, where troops from the Rashtriya Rifles and Jammu and Kashmir Police had launched a cordon-and-search operation, Captain Brijesh Thapa from Darjeeling, Naik Dokkari Rajesh from Andhra Pradesh, and Sepoys Bijendra and Ajay Kumar Singh from Rajasthan died fighting Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terrorists.

These terror attacks highlight the shift in focus of terrorists from Kashmir to Jammu, which has remained largely free from terror activities in the last two decades. According to the South Asian Terrorism Portal, since mid-2021, at least 26 terror attacks have occurred in the Jammu division, pointing to sustained bids to revive terrorism in the region after the special status of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) under Article 370 of the Constitution was abrogated on August 5, 2019.

Security agencies suspected that three to four terrorist groups have newly infiltrated the Jammu region to spread panic and terror. Based on the inputs from reliable sources, the Jammu police has raised a red alert for security formation in the Rajouri-Poonch belt and Jammu district to prepare for ‘suicide attacks’ by terrorists. It becomes pertinent to explore the underlying causes of the recent increase in terrorist attacks in Jammu and examine the policies and decisions implemented by the current government to curb these incidents.

Angst against abrogation of Article 370

The strategy of terror groups based in Pakistan has been to shift focus from the Kashmir Valley, where security forces maintain a firm grip, to the Jammu region. For the past 2–3 years, terrorists have intermittently struck in Jammu, which has seen a surge in violence, particularly in 2023 and 2024. The terror attacks may also be seen as a move to deter holding assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370. Add to this India’s increasing global clout and positive perception in world politics and Pakistan’s sliding status worldwide. The recent terrorist attacks serve Pakistan to keep the Kashmir issue relevant on the international stage as well as satisfy its domestic civilians domestically.

Pakistan: A serial offender

Since the inception of Pakistan, it has posed security challenges to India and hindered India’s regional growth in South Asia. The history of India-Pakistan relations is nothing but history of war, terrorism and betrayal by Pakistan. According to classical realists, actors (states) of the International system learn from their past engagements and experiences the way humans do. India’s experiences and relations with Pakistan are based on betrayals and backstabbing. For example, during the 1965 war, Pakistan infiltrated India, but the latter successfully averted it. In 1971, India signed the Simla Agreement, but Pakistan violated it.

During the Kargil War, then Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee started ‘Bus Diplomacy’ to strengthen friendly relations. However, the Pakistani Army captured the Indian peaks in the shadow of diplomacy. Due to these repeated betrayals, India’s trust has been depleted. At national and international forums, Pakistan has earned itself the title of ‘Breeding ground for terrorism’.

How’s India dealing with it?

If we look at India’s dealings with terrorists in Kashmir valley, PoK and now Jammu, post-2014, one thing is common; no negotiation with perpetrators of terrorism. India has witnessed quite a handful of operations against militants backed by the Pakistani Army. The Modi government is also doubling down on terrorist financing, seizing and freezing terrorists’ assets and banning various terrorist organisations. It has also given the Northern Command a free hand to hunt and shoot down the terrorists.

As per the latest reports from New Delhi, the Indian Army has already started their search operations. Home Minister Amit Shah chaired a closed-door meeting  on 16 June, attended by the Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, national security adviser, Union home secretary, senior officers from the army, police, Jammu and Kashmir administration, and the MHA. In the meeting, he asked the army to execute area dominance and zero-terror strategies in the Jammu division. Earlier in June, PM Modi too convened a high-level meeting to assess the real-time on-ground security situation. Furthermore, as Amarnath Yatra is around the corner, pilgrims’ surge is expected, hence security concerns need to be addressed immediately for safe passage of pilgrims.

Around mid-June, two terrorists linked to the Kathua  terror incident have been killed, and an investigation is underway. A shootout broke out between the Indian army and terrorists in the Hira Nagar region of Kathua district. The body of the second terrorist killed in an encounter in Kathua’s Hiranagar region after the terror assault has been recovered.

“A new infiltration organisation has arisen in the region, and there is a possibility that more terrorists are lurking in the area. A search operation is currently ongoing, and we have sealed off the area. More information on the event will be provided later,” ADGP Jammu Anand Jain informed reporters regarding the Kathua anti-terror operation.

Why Jammu?

Several variables contribute to the growth in terrorist activities in Jammu. Following the repeal of Article 370, Pakistan-based terrorist organisations have moved attention from the closely guarded Kashmir Valley to the more susceptible Jammu region. Terrorists are using Jammu’s wide and rough terrain to their benefit to get across the International Border and Line of Control, frequently disguised as civilians and obtaining weapons from local hideouts.

This trend has been worsened by troops being redeployed from the southern Pir Panjal range to Ladakh due to the ongoing border standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control, resulting in a security vacuum and lack of information from local sources. The growing adoption of modern, easily accessible technologies has also helped these groups discover new avenues for perpetuating terrorism. It’s time the government reoriented its strategy and operations vis-à-vis terrorism, especially of the jihadi hue.

Gargi Shanbhag is a research assistant at Chanakya University. Her research interests lie at an intersection of India’s Foreign Policy, Defence and Non-Western IR Thought. She often writes about Strategic Thought, Civilisational IR, Geopolitics of South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific, and Terrorism. Anmol Kumar is a Research Assistant for an ICSSR Project at Pondicherry University. He regularly writes about domestic politics, foreign policy, and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.