Resurgence of terror attacks in Kashmir points to Pakistan’s persistent shadow

The peace in the Kashmir valley has been shaken by a spurt in terrorist attacks after a period of relative calm. A series of high-profile attacks targeting civilians, non-local labourers, and security forces has brought back the focus on Kashmir. This spike in violence following the recent Assembly elections and the formation of a new government has raised concerns about the motive behind the escalation. The back-to-back attacks highlight the fragile security landscape in Kashmir and the attempt of Pakistan to revive the focus on Kashmir post the recent elections and life in the valley returning to normal.

The problems of Kashmir are two—the problem in Kashmir and the problem of Kashmir. The former has seen a major positive trend with the near-nil recruitment and the Article 370 abrogation, integrating the region while isolating the anti-nationals. Yet traces of radicalism remain embedded in a few elements that could be exploited by those opposing the present regime. The other is the problem of Kashmir, which is essentially a creation of Pakistan’s proxy war as a means to keep the trio of ‘Mullah, Military, and Ministers’ relevant to their survival and deflect the crisis that is threatening its survival. The problem of Kashmir engineered by Pakistan’s ISI remains formidable and a state-sponsored proxy war.

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Fragility of Peace in Kashmir

The situation in Kashmir underlines the complex nature of peace—a concept that goes beyond the mere absence of violence. Effective peacebuilding is a multi-stage process, which can be broken down into three stages:

Enforced Peace (Negative Peace): The initial stage, characterised by the suppression of violence, is fragile and time-sensitive. While violence may appear to be controlled, underlying tensions remain.

Adequate Peace: At this intermediate stage, violence is minimised, and the rule of law and public order are restored, creating a conducive environment for political processes to take root.

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Enduring Peace: This final stage involves not just the elimination of violence but the establishment of functional governance, de-radicalisation efforts, and peacebuilding initiatives to prevent future conflicts.

The recent wave of terror attacks reveals that Kashmir remains caught between the stages of “adequate peace” and “enduring peace”. The abrogation of Article 370 and the targeting of terror funding networks have reduced some militant activities. The peaceful elections have strengthened the democratic process and people’s choice. However, recent attacks signal that deep-rooted issues persist and a sustainable, long-term solution is yet to be fully realised. “Enduring peace” is still a challenge.

Key Incidents Signalling Resurgence

The resurgence of violence has been marked by targeted attacks across Jammu and Kashmir. While some may wish it away as isolated incidents, the wise would realise unless they are stemmed they could result in spiral escalation. The recent key incidents include:

Killings of Non-Locals: Attacks on non-local labourers and other workers in Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Bandipora, Budgam, Ganderbal, and other districts aim to disrupt economic stability by creating fear among the migrant labour force, undermining socio-economic cohesion. This underscores militants’ strategy to create widespread panic and destabilise everyday life.

Attacks on Security Forces: Encounters and ambushes on security personnel, such as the assault on an army convoy in Akhnoor, reflect an attempt to challenge the state’s authority and disrupt public confidence in government control. Two soldiers and two army porters were killed in a militant attack on an army vehicle in Gulmarg.

Public Attacks in Srinagar: The recent grenade attack in Srinagar’s flea market injured 10 people, marking the return of militant activity to urban centres previously considered secure. Encounter in Srinagar after a gap of two years hasreminded of the militant’s presence in the heart of the valley.

This resurgence serves as a stark reminder of militancy’s presence and the volatility of peace in the region. While the security forces have been giving a befitting reply, including the so-called Lashkar-e-Taiba top commander being eliminated, it is clear that the upsurge is to keep the fire of militancy alive.

Causes Behind the Renewed Militancy

Political Uncertainty and Power Transitions: Militant groups may view political transitions, such as the recent elections and the formation of a new government, as opportunities to destabilise the region and test the new leadership’s resolve. Militancy and politicians have been a traditional mingle for survival in the valleys of politics. The fissures of the centre-state divide have their negative fallouts too.

Pakistan’s Proxy War and Terrorist Support: Pakistan’s role in perpetuating unrest in Jammu and Kashmir is well documented. Despite Financial Action Task Force (FATF) scrutiny, Pakistan-based groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its proxies, including The Resistance Front (TRF), continue to find ways to operate, often exploiting radical fissures. The ongoing proxy war by Pakistan calls for a global response to hold Islamabad accountable for state-sponsored terrorism and destabilising the region.

There is pressure on the Pakistani Army, ISI, and its Chief, General Asim Munir, from multiple fronts—political, internal, the western front with the Taliban and TTP, and economic crises. To divert attention and gain credibility, the faucet of terrorism in J&K has been turned on again. Creating pressure in Jammu seems like a ruse for deflecting the focus and reviving militancy in the Valley. This strategy provides an alternate narrative to the world post-2019 abrogation and peaceful conduct of democratic elections and showcases the Kashmir cause.

Strategic Targeting of Non-Locals: Targeted attacks on non-local labourers aim to disrupt the region’s economy and development of infrastructure and deter migration and investment, thus weakening efforts towards socio-economic integration.

Psychological Warfare and Fragile Peace: Militants’ focus on soft targets and crowded public spaces is a form of psychological warfare, emphasising the fragile nature of peace in Kashmir. The goal is to instill fear among the populace and highlight the state’s limited control, perpetuating a cycle of violence and distrust.

Local Radicalisation and Recruitment: While foreign militants play a major role, local radicalisation and toxic ideologies remain challenges. Militants exploit this internal fault line to recruit young people, sustaining a base of local support despite intensified security measures.

Review External and Internal Strategies

The government must approach militancy in Kashmir through a ‘whole of nation’ approach, addressing both external and internal dimensions of the proxy war. Pakistan’s continuous proxy war, driven by its intelligence agency ISI, demands a more aggressive denial strategy that focuses on punitive deterrence. ‘Mowing the lawn’ periodically with military operations is insufficient; instead, a focus on striking at the root of militancy and dismantling terror-support infrastructure is necessary. One or two surgical strikes are not adequate. The need is to ‘hit hard, hit where it hurts, and hurt where it lasts’ with precision targeting even by a swarm of drones to keep the adversary’s head down.

Complementing the above kinetic strategy is the non-kinetic strategy of the 3M framework—denying militants men, material, and money by targeting radical ideologies, curbing material support to terror networks, and disrupting financial channels. This approach should operate alongside counter-terrorism efforts that bridge the gap between citizens and the government, fostering goodwill, governance, and inclusive growth to bolster peacebuilding in the region.

Actions Required for Sustained Peace

Enhanced Intelligence and Surveillance: Real-time intelligence gathering, especially in urban centres, is critical to preventing attacks. Intelligence networks should optimize technology for tracking communications between militants. Empowering and integrating the efforts of the plethora of security forces and intelligence agencies needs greater focus.

Reinforced border security with advanced surveillance technologies is necessary to prevent cross-border infiltrations, reducing the external influence of Pakistan-backed militant networks. Search and strike mission drones on militant launch pads must find greater effort. The militant leadership and supporters must find dust soonest.

Deny, Attrite, and Dismember. Deny entry, safe havens, resources, and space. Attrite terrorist leadership and morale of cadres. Dismember the linkages to deny collusion between terrorists, underground workers, overground workers/supporters, political nexus, and people.

Countering Digital Propaganda: Militants use social media to radicalise youth. The government should intensify counter-narrative strategies, working with digital platforms to curtail extremist content.

Community Engagement and Confidence-Building: Establishing trust between local communities and the government is vital. Engaging civil society and local leaders in peacebuilding efforts and addressing legitimate grievances can encourage cooperation with security forces.

Focus on Governance and Inclusive Growth: “Development, Empowerment, and Security” are essential for mainstreaming the Valley. Building societal equilibrium by ensuring equitable development and addressing grievances will reduce militant recruitment and strengthen security measures.

International Accountability for Pakistan: Exposing Pakistan’s role in promoting terrorism in Kashmir at global forums is crucial. Holding Pakistan accountable for its destabilising actions will increase international pressure on Islamabad to curb militant activities.

Conclusion

The recent surge in militant activities highlights the fragile nature of peace in Kashmir, where efforts are still grappling between enforced and adequate peace. Achieving lasting peace requires a robust, multifaceted approach combining firm counter-terrorism efforts with community-driven initiatives, economic empowerment, and governance reforms. Maintaining societal equilibrium is crucial for long-term stability in Jammu and Kashmir. Building trust among local communities and ensuring their active participation in governance is essential. Societal stability acts as a deterrent to militant recruitment and support, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of security measures.

The centre-state harmony in the spirit of ‘nation above all’ can work towards establishing an enduring peace in Jammu and Kashmir, laying the foundation for sustainable stability and growth in the Valley. Meanwhile, our brave security forces will ensure that those who participate in or support militancy have their meeting with almighty God at the earliest.

The author is former Director General, Mechanised Forces. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.