Ramification | Sri Lanka: First presidential election after economic crisis and all weather Colombo-Delhi ties

The Sri Lankan presidential election is scheduled for September 21, 2024. The last time a direct presidential election was held was in 2019. The incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe is aiming for a re-election, making him the first president after Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2015 to do so. However, the front runners for the election are the Leader of Opposition Sajith Premadasa from Samagi Jana Balawegaya and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, MP from the National People’s Power (NPP). Other major candidates are Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is contesting as an independent, and Namal Rajapaksa from Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna.

There has been much interest in the upcoming election, primarily because it is the first election after the people’s uprising ‘Aragalaya’ that was brought on by the economic crisis that wrecked the country. The financial bankruptcy that impacted the lives of 22 million citizens has become the political game changer for Sri Lanka. With over 17 million eligible voters and 1 million new voters, the election is not hinging on religion or ethnicity but is entirely going to be fought on the future economic stability of Sri Lanka.

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The 2019 economic crisis created chaos in the island country, with the government unable to pay for essentials. The situation led to the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his prime minister and brother Mahinda Rajapaksa, who had been the president for two terms before Gotabaya. Even though Wickremesinghe has previously served as Prime Minister four times, has experience, and was appointed constitutionally, many argue that he did not get the people’s mandate. He took over the reins of the country in perhaps the most difficult times in recent history. His popularity has been impacted by high taxes and a $37 billion debt to lenders.

In his defence, Wickremesinghe has often highlighted the political and economic stability achieved in his two-year tenure and having passed laws that will help exports in the country. He also credits himself with securing an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout and pulling support from the international community. India was crucial in helping him in negotiations with the IMF. But his backing from Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), led by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, is slated to go against him. The Rajapaksa clan is blamed for Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy and rampant corruption. Nevertheless, Mahinda’s unpopularity has pushed his son Namal to jump into the fray, declaring his candidacy.

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There are 39 other contenders, but opinion polls in the country have repeatedly put Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and Sajith Premadasa as top contenders and Wickremesinghe in the third position. AKD, also an experienced politician, has evolved from being the leader of the People’s Liberation Front, or JVP, to now being a political force and leading the NPP alliance. The Marxist-Leninist party has promised to bring a “people-based economy”, curbing corruption and bringing in economic reforms.

Premadasa, too, like the other top contenders, is an experienced politician who has spoken of a liberal economy and capitalism with a human touch. He has rejected the neoliberal economic policies of the past as well as extreme left-wing socialist policies, hoping to pave a middle path for economic reforms for Sri Lanka.

Irrespective of the outcome of the election, India, as it has done in the past, will continue to support Sri Lanka in its recovery. India’s Neighbourhood First policy and Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) policy are not only aimed at building goodwill and stability in its neighbourhood but also to counter China’s growing presence. India has offered considerable assistance to Sri Lanka in the form of $4 billion, $1 billion more than the IMF’s 48-month bailout. It also offered loan deferrals, humanitarian aid, and a Line of Credit, which included an agreement to supply $700 million worth of petroleum. This was not the first time that India has reached out to its neighbour. Even during the pandemic, India sent out 500,000 vaccines to Sri Lanka and 150 tonnes of oxygen.

Last year, when President Wickremesinghe visited New Delhi to meet with Prime Minister Modi, the outcome of the Neighbourhood First policy was evident. India and Sri Lanka agreed to strengthen the maritime, air, energy, tourism, power, trade, and education sectors. Furthermore, strengthening of the security cooperation with India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval attending the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) in Sri Lanka has sent a major message to Beijing, especially the Memorandum of Understanding signed to establish the CSC secretariat.

This has been seen by analysts as a significant move by India to counter China’s expansionist agenda on the island. China has been the highest lender to Sri Lanka, with over $4.6 billion loaned to the country. The Chinese-built Hambantota port was seen as a classic Beijing “debt trap” when Sri Lanka announced leasing it to Hambantota International Port Group, a joint venture between China Merchant Ports, which holds an 87 per cent stake and 13 per cent with the Sri Lankan government.

Though many China supporters in Sri Lanka have argued that the port has become highly profitable with a turnover of 700,000 units a month and with the possibility of it becoming a cruise hub. But also, China has also been accused of docking spy surveillance ships. However, India is well aware of China’s plans to dominate the Indian Ocean through its economic investments in the country. In response, India has also invested in a part of the Colombo port, Kankesanthurai port, Trincomalee port, Jaffna, and Hambantota airports, amongst other infrastructure projects like a two-way petroleum pipeline. Sri Lanka also preferred India over China for its power projects.

Like any other diplomatic relationship, goodwill comes with its own set of challenges that must be overcome. The issue of the 13th Amendment (13A) to the Constitution, which was a part of the Indo-Sri Lanka accord, is one such case. The amendment pushes for federalism and strengthening of provinces as a way to ensure peace. Though there has been consistent hesitation over the years in implementing the amendment in full, there has been assurance from Premadasa to do so. Dissanayake leans towards a new constitution, and Wickremesinghe has suggested the removal of police powers from the agreement.

Either way, India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar’s visit to Sri Lanka on June 20, 2024, was an important marker in the strengthening of India-Sri Lanka relations, irrespective of the party in power. It was his first bilateral visit after his reappointment. The EAM met with President Wickremesinghe and Prime Minister H E Dinesh Gunawardena.

He also held meetings with his counterpart, Ali Sabry, who in September 2023, backed India in its diplomatic feud with Canada. Sabry accused Canada of being a “safe haven for terrorists” and suggested that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was prone to making “outrageous and substantiated allegations”.

Furthermore, S Jaishankar had separate meetings with Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sajith Premadasa, and leaders across party lines. These meetings have underscored the need for a strong India-Sri Lanka relationship irrespective of the change in power centres in Colombo. India’s Neighbourhood First policy and its SAGAR vision will be the cornerstone of long-term economic cooperation and a secure Indian Ocean.

Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.