Ramification | Is the European Parliament turning right this June?

Recently, Geert Wilders, the right-wing Dutch politician, reached an agreement to form a four-party coalition in the Netherlands. After nearly six months of negotiations, Partij Voor De Vrijheid (PVV) is set to form a government primarily on the basis of its hard anti-immigration stance. Though Wilders may not be the prime minister of this uneasy coalition, it has put an end to the liberal era of Mark Rutte, who had been prime minister since 2010.

Unlike Rutte’s politics, Wilders’ manifesto is centred on its nationalist agenda for the future, which includes banning Islamic educational institutions, mosques, and the Quran, and ensuring the strictest laws for asylum seekers, which includes keeping their applications pending for a minimum of two years. Further, it promises tighter border controls, revoked refugee privileges such as housing, and bringing back the Dutch language in educational institutions. Nevertheless, most of these policies would fail to comply with European Union (EU) rules and sentiments, a fact that has been addressed by the coalition in a proposal that suggests withdrawing from EU rules.

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However, Wilders, also known as the ‘Trump’ of the Netherlands, an apparent pot-shot because of his blonde hair and right-leaning ideology, is not the only one in Europe attracting votes for issues that would previously be frowned upon or spoken of in hushed voices. A survey done by the Pew Research Centre in 2022 showed that the vote share of populist parties across Europe was on the rise. In Spain, the vote share of populist parties doubled between 2015 and 2019.

In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice Party quadrupled their vote share, rising from one-in-ten votes to around four-in-ten votes between 2001 and 2009. In France, the share of voters casting first-round ballots for a populist party rose from around 10 per cent in the 1980s to around 44 per cent in 2022. The right-leaning Flemish Interest party won around 12 per cent of Belgium’s vote in 2019, marking one of its most successful elections since 2007. In Hungary, President Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party secured a ‘supermajority’ in 2022. Similarly, in Italy, the far-right is in power, in Sweden, the far-right is backing the centre-right; and in Austria, there is a coalition between the centre-right and the far-right.

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Furthermore, all of these changes signify the growing popularity of the right wing amongst youth. A trend study called “Youth of Germany 2024” noted in their survey that 22 per cent of 2,000 respondents between the ages of 14 and 29 intended to vote for Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), a right-wing populist party that is known for its Euroscepticism and its anti-immigration stance. The survey also stated that immigration was one of the foremost concerns among German youth. Similarly, in Wilders’ victory, the youth played a significant role, with 17 per cent of the voters being between the ages of 18 and 34. In France, the National Rally (RN) won 39 per cent of votes from voters between the ages of 18 and 24 and 49 per cent votes from 25 to 34 year olds in 2022.

As youth voter participation grows in the European Parliament, the Eurobarometer survey showed the impact of young voters. The survey registered an increase of 14 percentage points amongst those under 25 years of age and an increase of 12 percentage points amongst 25- to 39-year-olds. With 2019 witnessing the highest voter turnout since 1999, the survey suggested that the increase was due to youth voter participation.

This year, 400 million Europeans will vote in the European Union Parliament (EP) elections to elect 720 parliamentarians. From June 6 to June 9, the EP will see for the very first time 16- and 17-year-olds voting due to revised laws. This revision is based on the idea that it is this age group that is likely to benefit in the future from policies implemented today. Unlike the previous elections, where climate change and other environmental concerns played a prominent role, analysts are in agreement that economic and political issues such as immigration, housing, and unemployment will be the deciding factors this year. These are also all the issues that are fronted by European right-wing parties and are seen as being interlinked with each other. Amongst the youth, there is little need for traditional party loyalty, while right-wing parties have an opportunity to grip the imagination of non-voters as well, just as Wilders managed to bring in 11 per cent votes from those who had abstained in 2021.

However, contrary to popular alarmist belief, ’turning right’ does not make these young voters neo-Nazis; just the way demanding stricter immigration laws does not make them anti-Muslim. Young voters want an alternative that can promise them better employment, housing, and security—areas that they feel the traditional parties have not delivered on. Especially when they see their future prospects being compromised at the cost of immigrants, whose cultural moorings are seen as being at odds with European values.

To this end, the European Commission itself, under President Ursula von der Leyen, a staunch opponent of right-wing ideologies, created a European Rule of Law Mechanism towards promoting a ‘European way of life’—a contested idea—that is at odds with the demand of right-wing parties for the preservation of individual national identities.

Nevertheless, the European Rule of Law Mechanism includes strong borders, modernisation of the EU’s asylum system, and cooperation with partner countries to reimagine migration. Some would argue that she legitimised the threat of immigration in the minds of young voters and right-wing parties alike. Others would consider it a balancing act, considering AfD has described the EU as a ‘failed project’ in its current form because of its lackadaisical position on migration. They even called for the EU to be re-founded as a “federation of European nations” with a focus on the protection of borders and strategic autonomy in security policy. Voicing other Eurosceptics, Jimmie Akesson, the head of Sweden’s number two party, the Sweden Democrats, publicly asked for a re-assessment of Sweden’s membership in the EU.

The fact is that Europe is suffering from a declining economy, creating instability in the European Union. In 2023, the European economy saw close to zero growth, in addition to the highest inflation recorded in decades. The Ukraine war has had its impact, with many European companies talking about massive layoffs. There is a cost-of-living crisis that is worrying the young voter, who is disenchanted with neo-liberal economic policies that have nearly destroyed the purchasing power of the working class. To add to that, the political divisions that have created fault lines in European society have been blamed squarely on traditional political parties. Thus creating space and opportunity for the right-wing to resonate with the concerns of voters across the age spectrum. The ideological ‘right turn’ of Europe signifies a natural transformation in the expectations of the voter as a response to issues that impact them. Therefore, next month may be a turning point for the EU, once an economic union that has tried to forge itself as a political union, resulting in the creation of a European Union for the 21st century.

Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.