Ramification | Fall of The House of Ming: Money, militia and Myanmar

Three years after the military coup in Myanmar, Operation 1027 was launched against the military junta by The Three Brotherhood Alliance members comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army(MNDAA) from the Kokang Region of Shan State, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army also from the Shan State and the Arakan Army (AA) based in the Rakhine State. On 27 October 2023, the Alliance simultaneously attacked military outposts, police stations and took control over key cities and highways in the northern part of Shan state. The rebellion quickly spread across Myanmar and by 7 November 2023 with the launch of Operation 1107 in support of Operation 1027 many other insurgent groups across the country joined hands.

This was perhaps one of the rare occasions in the troubled history of Myanmar where Ethnic Armed Organisation(EAO) from a variety of ethnic groups had come together in a meticulously coordinated attack against the junta. AA operating in Rakhine state largely was a surprise entry in this alliance but MNDAA had been an old player in the region. Subsequently, many Myanmar observers debated the pushback by the rebel groups as a victory for democracy, with some reports stating only 30-40 per cent of Myanmar was under the control of the junta.

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However, in the debates that raged with every town that fell to the rebels what was forgotten was the importance of MNDAA in this offensive. In fact, it was the first blow by MNDAA to the military junta in Laukkaing that propelled the far-reaching consequences of Operation 1027. The fallout of this rebel victory in Shan state resulted in three brigadier generals of the military junta sentenced to death and three to life imprisonment. They were accused of surrendering with their soldiers to MNDAA in Laukkaing, the capital of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone in northern Shan state making it possibly the largest surrender in the history of the military junta in Myanmar resulting in not just a humiliating defeat for the military junta but the sentencing of the brigadier generals sending shock waves across the forces.

However, at the outset, the Laukkaing victory seemed like one of great coordination founded on a noble cause and peppered with luck. Most would even say this was a victory for the democratic forces, the National Unity Government even, that the Three Brotherhood Alliance claimed to support. This argument gives credibility to the offensive while the world virtue signals to the military junta. But a little study of the anfractuous history of the region will reveal the importance of this victory, not for democracy but for absolute control.

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After the launch of Operation 1027, in mid-November 2023, news started trickling out of Myanmar that Ming Xuechang had taken his own life. The warlord and cybercrime mafia don of Laukkaing, was known to be the henchman and trusted aide of Bai Suocheng who heads one of the “four main families” of Laukkaing. The other three families were headed by Wei Chaoren, Liu Zhengxiang and Liu Guoxi (who died in 2020). These “four main families” of Laukkaing were not only money elites of the Shan state but rather the four men who played a part in converting this dusty town into a scamsters paradise. The transformation of Lukkaing began to attract many gamblers from neighbouring countries, especially China where gambling is illegal.

The “four main families” expanded their business to trafficking, money laundering and telecom scam centres amongst other illegal activities. This, of course, would not have been possible without the support of the local police and the Tatmadaw. With online scams not just luring Chinese citizens but also these gangs attracting them with high paying jobs in controlled environments, commonly known as “cyber slavery”, China, bearing the brunt of this wild town, began to put pressure on the Tatmadaw to rein these families in. But with billions of dollars at stake the Ming’s amongst the others resisted.

With China’s frustration with the Tatmadaw unabated and its concerns unaddressed, China decided to activate the Three Brotherhood Alliance last October with the very successful Operation 1027. This was easy to achieve as the leader of MNDAA was the original warlord of Laukkaing, Peng Jiasheng also known as the “King of Kokang”. Peng had been ousted by none other than the present Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing who led the coup in 2021. Hlaing had used Bai Suocheng, who was Peng’s deputy at the time to overthrow Peng Jiasheng. Once they managed to expel Peng who took refuge in China in 2009, Bai Suocheng rose as one of the “four families” of Kokang. Peng’s contentious relationship with the military junta was exacerbated by his proximity to China and his Chinese ancestry. After all, he was the one who negotiated the deal that led to Kokang becoming a special administrative zone, yuan the currency and Mandarin the language.

In 2015, MNDAA attempted to take back Kokang under the leadership of Peng’s son Peng Daxun. They clashed heavily with Min Aung Hlaing’s military forces, but managed to seek refuge to wait till another opportunity came up. A testimony to Peng’s ability to create deep trust and linkages with other EAO’s. When Peng died in 2022 at the age of 94 in Mongla, south of Kokang, his funeral was attended by leaders of all major EAO’s, crime syndicates, and community leaders. Condolence messages also reportedly came in from Chinese politicians, NUG as well as Min Aung Hlaing. Incidentally, Mongla is controlled by the National Democratic Alliance Army whose chairman is Peng’s son-in-law, Lin Mingxian.

While many observers may think that China has a single policy towards the Tatmadaw, the truth like the serpentine history of the Kokang region and its warlords may be far more complex. China on the one hand may want to control any cybercrime, cyber scam and cyber slavery issues impacting its citizens. On the other hand, the Chinese can use their transnational ethnic ancestry as a strength to get their way with Myanmar, irrespective of who is seated in Naypyidaw.

It is important to note that Peng was one of the biggest opium, heroin and later methamphetamine traffickers. Reportedly at the behest of China Peng gave up Opium production but expanded to gambling, illegal mining and synthetic drug production. In this context, the outcome of Operation 1027 is not some heroic modern-day story of poor rebels defeating an authoritarian oppressive regime but rather the revival of a China-supported EAO. MNDAA might follow China’s instructions and “clean” Kokang, but under the garb of “cleaning” MNDAA has taken this opportunity to settle scores with the “four families” of Kokang. Core family members of Bai Suochang were killed in a plane crash while they were on their way to China to surrender. Bai Suocheng and Wei Chaoren and Liu Zhengxiang leaders of three out of the four families were taken to China where Ming’s son, daughter, granddaughter and son-in-law are already under arrest.

China might be interested in containing the cyber scam syndicates on its borders in Myanmar, but this situation is not that easy to solve as the networks run deep and far. MNDAA emerging as the single most powerful group in the region is unlikely to bring stability testing their relationship with the junta. With EAO’s increasing drug production to continue their offensive against the junta observers must ask themselves if China’s uncontested influence over the region and the fall of the House of Ming will fulfil the world’s desire for a democratic Myanmar.

The writer is an author, and anthropologist and a scholar of northeast India. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.