Ramification | Conflict, compromise or chaos: The bleak future of Myanmar

Three years after the military coup in Myanmar, Operation 1027 was launched against the military junta by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in the northern part of Shan State. Their success against the junta encouraged the launch of Operation 1107, bringing together insurgent groups across the country. This was perhaps one of the rare occasions in the troubled history of Myanmar where Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) from various groups came together in a meticulously coordinated attack against the junta. Subsequently, many Myanmar observers debated the pushback by the rebel groups as a victory for democracy.

Conflict

Since 2023, the junta has continued to suffer considerable losses. The Special Advisory Council of Myanmar, an independent group of former UN human rights experts, and the National Unity Government (NUG) claim that presently nearly 52–70 per cent of the country is under the control of the resistance forces. Reportedly, many pro-military stakeholders have held Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing responsible for the loss of territory, openly asking him to hand over his military command. Famous bloggers from Myanmar, like Maung Maung, have openly criticised him, calling the losses a “historic shame". Other important monks and pro-Tatmadaw figures have come out in support of the Tatmadaw but not the Commander-in-Chief. But without any institutionalised mechanism to dislodge Gen Hlaing the chances of deputy commander Soe Win taking over the reins of the Tatmadaw for the time being seem unlikely.

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Furthermore, the junta has a firepower advantage and has activated the conscription law, aiming to recruit over 70,000 women and men into the military ranks. And even though the resistance forces claim nearly 70 per cent of the territory, the fact remains that population density is much higher in urban areas and in the lowlands than in the hills controlled by the EAOs. Over half of the country’s 56.6 million population is still under Tatmadaw-controlled territory. Moreover, the junta has also breached the Haigeng Ceasefire Agreement that was brokered by Beijing between the Three Brotherhood Alliance and the military junta for the first time in January this year. Since then, Jason Tower, Myanmar Country Director of the United States Institute of Peace, has reported that the junta has regrouped, acquired drones, and targeted EAO positions to regain territory.

On the other hand, the NUG continues to enjoy popularity and support, not just from the EAOs but also from countries across the world, especially the West. They are seen as leading the political front for a disparate opposition against the junta. However, what is still unclear is if a variety of aspirations can be accommodated in the long run and if this partnership will hold as the EAOs themselves have rivalries and separate political agendas.

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Compromise

At the moment, the situation in Myanmar seems to be a stalemate, with no foreseeable consensus for a future roadmap. Neither of the sides has succeeded or failed. And in such a scenario, the possibilities are many.

For instance, the junta can call for elections. Hlaing vowed last week to hold elections next year. That would be five years since the coup. Though he made assurances earlier, saying if the state was peaceful and stable, elections would be held, even though it may not be possible nationwide, this time, he stated that a household census would be conducted in October in order to hold a “free and fair multiparty democratic general election in the coming year”.

The second scenario could entail the military junta led regime falling apart. Though unlikely, a change of leadership would not suffice to meet the demands of the opposition, and the junta has no reason to crumble. Considering, they control much of the key assets in the country, such as ports, highways, gas, and oil pipelines, among others, the military will stay financially afloat. Strategically, the junta has control and support in the heartland. EAO’s would rather focus on their territory and enhanced autonomy than fight in areas where they have neither tactical ability nor economic interests.

The third scenario could be of the situation remaining status quo or with some sort of confederation system in place. This would spell a volatile future for Myanmar, with a constant tug of war with the junta at the centre over assets, resources, and funds. The likelihood of conflicts within and among EAOs would be high.

Chaos

Irrespective of any outcome, the road ahead for Myanmar and its neighbours will not be an easy one. With the United Nations estimating almost 2.5 million people displaced, largely from regions like Sagaing across India’s border, the repercussions for neighbouring countries will be high. India shares 1643 km of porous borders with Myanmar and has borne the brunt of the conflict, with illegal infiltration and drug trafficking making their way into India’s sensitive north east region. In 2023, the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime reported the highest opium production since 2001 in Myanmar, with poppy farming becoming more sophisticated and productive.

Much of the conflict in India’s northeastern state of Manipur has been seen as a direct impact of the conflict in Myanmar. With transnational ethnic communities across the borders and the recent warning by PM Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, who alleged that there was a western conspiracy to carve a Christian state from parts of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and she alluded to India, this points towards a complex future.

Additionally, what is now emerging as one of the most devastating outcomes of not just the conflict in Myanmar but the cost of the green energy transition is the mining of ‘Heavy and Rare Earth Elements’ (HREE) in Myanmar. A non-profit organisation Global Witness (GW) investigation in 2022 revealed that China, which controls nearly 90 per cent HREE processing capacity, extracted the majority of the elements in Myanmar. HREE is crucial for magnets that are used in electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines. However, rare earth extraction creates radioactive waste, and according to experts, land that is mined cannot be used for almost 17 years after extraction.

An Associated Press investigation revealed that the global demand for rare earths is expected to explode by 300 per cent to 700 per cent by 2040. But even though the US Congress required companies to disclose the origin of minerals such as tin, gold, and tungsten to ensure that they do not benefit any conflict groups, the US law did not cover rare earths. The European Union’s 2021 regulation on conflict minerals also excludes rare earths. The green goals that the West has set for itself clearly outweigh the possibility that rare earth mining in Myanmar is fueling militia groups with long-term environmental impacts. GW reported that the water in Kachin State has turned poisonous. There are no fish; animals that drink it die, and it causes human infections, finally resulting in the displacement of complete communities and their way of life.

Therefore, AP has aptly termed Myanmar the “Sacrifice Zone”. This is because if Myanmar is being sacrificed for Western ideals, the impact would remain equally disruptive, especially for neighbouring countries. It would then be prudent for countries like India to start looking beyond the conflict in order to mitigate the inevitable impacts of the chaos that is yet to emerge.

Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.