Ramification | Bangladesh: How Muhammad Yunus is wearing a crown of thorns

An interim government was sworn in on August 8 in Bangladesh after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. There was no way of knowing that a High Court order passed on the 5th of June would become the trigger for some of the largest protests seen in Dhaka in the recent past, altering the future of Bangladesh.

The protests in Dhaka turned into riots when the High Court decided to reinstate the quota system, which reserved 56 per cent of government jobs for certain groups, amongst which the largest chunk was reserved for the descendants of the 1971 freedom fighters who won the war of independence from Pakistan. Though the Supreme Court subsequently suspended the High Court order and scheduled a hearing for August 7, 2024, the protests escalated into violence, leaving over 200 dead and thousands in jail. The pressure built up with the protests becoming political, and forces that opposed Sheikh Hasina seeing an opportunity for a regime change were activated. On August 5, 2024, PM Sheikh Hasina fled Bangladesh for India.

For months I have written about the possibility of the United States of America becoming more involved in Bangladesh with Sheikh Hasina’s refusal to cede St. Martin’s Island to them to use as a US base. Their involvement in the elections was also evident with repeated calls for a “free and fair” election, building an argument founded on doubts about the elections that were held earlier this year that brought Sheikh Hasina back to power for the fourth consecutive term. The US previously had put sanctions not just on Awami League (AL) leaders but also Bangladesh’s’ elite paramilitary force, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), that had been accused of human rights violations. But the final nail on the head seemed to be when Sheikh Hasina made a public statement accusing the US of wanting to carve out a Christian state from parts of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and another country. She did not name the country, but any observer of the region knew she meant India. This offer was made in lieu of a hassle-free election.

But this is the past now. The immediate aftermath of Sheikh Hasina’s ouster meant a huge backlash on Bangladesh’s minorities, especially Hindus. This has always been a well-analysed possibility in the eventuality that AL would lose power, bringing in the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and with it the infamous Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). The Islamic movement that aims at establishing an Islamic state governed by Sharia law, similar to the Muslim Brotherhood with strong support for the BNP. Much has been written about JeI, its founder, Indian-born Sayyid Abul A’la Maududi, and the organisation’s dark past associated with Bangladesh’s liberation war in 1971. JeI, alongside Al Shams and Al Badr, both anti Bangladesh paramilitary forces supported by the Pakistan Army and ISI, were accused of mass killings of Bengali nationalists and ethnic and religious minorities.

Even though, after the liberation war, they were banned, JeI today has become the largest Islamic political party in Bangladesh. While it is true that the Awami League in 1996 went into an alliance with JeI, it was in reality seen more as a political move in comparison to the support JeI enjoys from the BNP that was born in the cantonment and required cadre. JeI and later its student body, Islamic Chhattra Shibir (ICS), became foot soldiers for BNP, holding ministerial positions in BNP-led governments. So it wasn’t a surprise when the interim government led by Muhammed Yunus included staunch supporters of the BNP and JeI as well as pro-West voices severely critical of India.

Therefore, India has been closely watching the situation unfold in Bangladesh while it is hosting Sheikh Hasina, but the full impact of the change in dispensation on the neighbourhood will take time to surface. There is much work for India to do in the meantime. Presently, the circumstances do not bode well for not just India but the neighbourhood, with utter lawlessness prevailing in Bangladesh. Police have been disarmed and police stations destroyed , the Army confined to the cantonment, making conditions ripe for JeI radicals who had been lying low under the previous regimes to come out in the open.

The full wrath of which has already been felt by the Hindu community and Awami League supporters. While the Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman has appealed for calm amidst visuals that have surfaced of students protecting temples, the fact remains that the larger target is to eliminate the opposition and subdue the minorities. If law and order is not restored at the earliest, then JeI (which has cadre) will be able to establish itself and suppress voices from AL and the minorities who are seen as pro-India elements. Moreover, the debilitating impact on the northeast region of India may be seen as inevitable. It was JeI top brass Matiur Rehman Nizami who was arrested for smuggling arms into Bangladesh for insurgents in northeast India. During the BNP regime in Bangladesh, insurgents operated and were given training in Bangladesh with the blessings of ISI.

However, some may argue that post-election things would normalise. But we must remember lessons learnt from other neighbourhood countries, such as Myanmar, where the conditions have not been ripe for elections for three years now, leading to complete anarchy. And even if elections are held at the earliest, the BNP, whose leader Khalida Zia has been recently released from house arrest after a number of years, is waiting to capture power, and in the absence of BNP cadres who are committed, it will naturally use JeI cadres to consolidate its position. This is more likely now with the fear of repercussions among AL supporters. Until AL reorganises its cadre, elections may be futile.

Such developments would be disastrous for India and Indian interests in Bangladesh in the long term. Therefore, it makes it essential that India engages actively with the interim administration led by Yunus and the Bangladesh Army, which has always maintained good relations with India. Because once JeI is de-stigmatised and legitimised, it will inevitably become a support base for global Jihadi organisations like Al Qaeda and Islamic State. Today, JeI is a transnational organisation. JeI Kashmir was banned in India last year, and most of the Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) members who were arrested in India were also cadre members of ICS. In Pakistan, JeI is an important political influencer and indulges in radical activities through its student wing, Jamiat-e Talaba. And in the case of Bangladesh, it is now open knowledge that the force behind Sheikh Hasina’s ouster was ICS.

Finally, India must walk the tightrope on the issue of Bangladesh. It must support minorities, especially Hindus, in the country and bring international stakeholders to the table to publicly voice concerns on the matter. En-mass eviction of minorities to India in the long term will jeopardise not just Bangladesh but the region. In fact, such a move will play into the hands of Islamists, not counter them. India must also strongly demand the restoration of democratic processes and institutions in Bangladesh, calling for elections, keeping in mind that a fair election will only be possible when complete law and order is established, which might take some time.

If the US can go as far as imposing sanctions not just in Bangladesh but also in Myanmar, India, being the largest democracy in the world as well as a responsible neighbour, can take steps on the same lines. Furthermore, India must ensure that there is ample support given to Sheikh Hasina and AL supporters so that without fear they can partake in the elections. But India, at the same time, must not forget that Yunus leads the interim government and enjoys credibility in the West. He must be made aware of India’s concerns. Yunus, a Nobel Laureate, has the credentials to instill faith in his ability to govern Bangladesh, but he must not overlook the fact that Myanmar too was run by a Nobel Laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi, Afghanistan by a professor at John Hopkins University, Ashraf Ghani, and Pakistan by the Oxonian Imran Khan.

The world is watching Yunus, as are the 30 per cent AL supporters in Bangladesh. The economy of Bangladesh, once touted as one of the fastest growing in South Asia with the best Human Development Index, took a hit during COVID-19 and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine War. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics Report of 2022, approximately 41 per cent of the youth in Bangladesh are a part of the labor force. This means that they are neither in education nor in employment nor receiving job training. Therefore, Yunus is not in an enviable position. If there was a discontent against Sheikh Hasina, Yunus too will have to contend with it. And as for India, it will undoubtedly support the interim government, just as long as Yunus realises that the region comes first, and in a situation like this, no one is infallible.

Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.