Rafah offensive and war in Gaza: Threat of a dangerous escalation

The war in Gaza is due to complete seven months on May 7, marking the longest war in Gaza since Israel’s voluntary vacation of Gaza in 2005. Contrary to expectations, borne more out of Israel’s enormous military superiority against Hamas as well as past conflicts in Gaza, the conflict has not ended swiftly.

During this time, however, Israeli strikes have flattened Gaza to the ground, making it completely uninhabitable, perhaps for decades. The stench of death and decay overwhelms the thin strip straddling the Mediterranean Sea, with estimates of over 34,500 deaths, including 13,000 children, and over 77,500 injured and maimed for life. Medical aid, food, and water have been severely restricted, and most international aid agencies, including UNRWA as well as WCK (World Central Kitchen), have been targeted and prevented from delivering lifesaving aid.

Despite a UN Security Council resolution of March 25 calling for an immediate ceasefire and the unconditional release of hostages, neither of the warring parties has been able to come to a common understanding.

Iran-Israel Escalation

In the midst of it, there was a period of dangerous escalation when an Israeli strike on April 1 targeted the Iranian Consulate building in Damascus, Syria, resulting in the deaths of seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the senior-most commander in Lebanon and Syria.

Outraged by the attack on its ‘sovereign territory’, Iran retaliated on April 13 with a massive and well-synchronised attack by drones and missiles. While most of the drones were intercepted mid-air, some of the missiles found their mark and struck the Nevatim Israeli air base in the Negev desert. Nevatim is the air base from which Israel launched its F-35 fighters that attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Despite decades of hostility between Israel and Iran, this was the first time that Iran had launched strikes directly on Israel from its territory. Israel and its allies, though forewarned by Iran of the retaliation, were surprised that Iran had actually called the bluff this time.

Israel, under pressure at home, responded with a strike into Iran on April 19, when loud explosions were heard in the vicinity of the city of Isfahan in the early morning hours. It was reported that Iranian air defences had shot down ‘three drones’ over the skies of the city. Although some media outlets later presented satellite pictures to show that some part of the Air Defence Battery in Isfahan was damaged, neither Iran, Israel, nor the US commented on it. With tit-for-tat strikes into each other’s territory, there is a general sense that both countries have called it quits as far as targeting each other directly is concerned.

With this threat of escalation over, the focus has shifted back to Gaza and finding means to put an early end to the war. As a part of the effort, US Secretary of State Blinken was in the region recently to hold talks with Arab leaders. He also stopped over in Israel, meeting PM Netanyahu in an effort to convince him to agree to a ceasefire and also to deter him from launching a ground offensive in Rafah. Whether Blinken was successful in convincing Netanyahu on it or not is a different question all together. Also, if and when the Rafah offensive takes place, what are its implications for ending or escalating the conflict and how the regional countries could react to it, is something to be watched out for.

What is Rafah?

Rafah is a border crossing town in southern Gaza located on its border with Egypt and is often called the ‘lifeline of Gaza’ due to the fact that it is one of the main in-route for international aid coming into Gaza. It is also the opening into the Sinai Peninsula on the Egyptian side. The crossing is manned and controlled by Egypt and Hamas on either side. It is the only crossing into Gaza that is not directly under Israeli control. This important crossing was in fact under Israeli control until 2005, when it unilaterally withdrew from Gaza, marking the first time that Palestinians had control over a border crossing without direct Israeli oversight. Currently, it is estimated that more than 1.3 million Palestinians are confined in Rafah, driven by Israeli strikes from the northern parts, over the past seven months.

Israel’s Position on Rafah Offensive

Netanyahu seems adamant that a ground offensive in Rafah is the final nail in the coffin of Hamas, and irrespective of a deal or no deal, the planned ground offensive in Rafah would go on. Addressing the nation on April 30, he said, “We will enter Rafah, and we will eliminate the Hamas battalions there—with or without a deal—in order to achieve total victory.” Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, was more aggressive when he called for annihilating Israel’s enemies, saying that “there are no half measures. [The Gazan cities of] Rafah, Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat—total annihilation”.

It may be recalled that Netanyahu had approved the military’s plan for an attack on Rafah in March itself, leaving the time of assault to a later date. However, on April 7, under threat of Iran’s retaliatory strike, Israel withdrew all combat troops from Gaza except one brigade to guard important points as well as the thin Nitsareem strip dividing Gaza into two halves, north and south. Recent developments in the area clearly indicate that the IDF is back in the area and is ‘preparing the battlefield’ for the Rafah operations. As per reports, two reserve brigades have been called up for duty. Satellite images also show a new tent city with over 10,000 tents that have come up recently in areas north of Rafah, which can hold thousands of people.

Israel estimates that Hamas’ higher leadership and four remaining battalions are entrenched in Rafah. Although Hamas does not possess combat battalions in the conventional sense, Israeli intelligence estimates that most of the remaining Hamas combat cadres are hiding among the Palestinians in Rafah. There has been intensification of air strikes in Rafah in an attempt to ‘soften the target’ which has resulted in large civilian casualties in the past few days; 22 killed on April 30 and 13 killed on May 2. It is estimated that over 250 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes in Rafah since the start of the holy month of Ramzan in March.

The efficacy and success of an offensive in Rafah to achieve Israel’s politico-military objectives are, however, suspected. Best estimates suggest that Israeli operations till now have been able to eliminate 30–35 per cent of Hamas combat cadres and leadership. Can Israel be assured that the remaining Hamas leadership will be taken out in Rafah operations? Can Israel be sure that the military operations will kill the entire military capability of Hamas? Is Israel sure that the remaining weaponry and arsenal are concentrated and hidden in Rafah? Even if Israel kills the entire 1.3 million people in Rafah, can it be sure that Hamas has been eliminated from the face of the earth? Sadly, the answer to most of these questions is ‘No’.

Rafah and Region

Within the region, there is apprehension about the Rafah offensive. Egypt has already lined up tanks and guns along the Rafah border and has clearly spelled out to Israel that it is a ‘red line’ that should not be crossed. Any direct intervention by Egypt not only threatens escalation but could also pose a threat to the 1979 Peace Treaty with Israel.

Turkey, too, has taken a very hard stand on the issue. Earlier, in March, it imposed severe restrictions on trade with Israel, and on May 2, it announced the suspension of all trade ties with Israel owing to Israeli atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank.

Jordan, which could be directly impacted by the influx of refugees in case of an offensive, made it clear at the very beginning of the war that it is a red line that must not be crossed.

Saudi Arabia is another important regional player. It is also a part of the GCC and in their meeting with Blinken on April 30, GCC foreign ministers strongly opposed any attempts to displace Palestinians and the escalation of violence in the West Bank. The Saudi Foreign Minister added that a possible invasion of Rafah will inevitably lead to a humanitarian disaster with severe consequences for the Palestinians and serious repercussions for all parties. Earlier in February, after an Israeli airstrike had killed 67 Palestinians in Rafah, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the kingdom “strongly condemns and rejects the extremely dangerous consequences of storming and targeting Rafah”.

On the other hand, there are contrarian reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are very close to finalising a defence pact. Within Saudi Arabia, anti-Israel protests are being dealt with a heavy hand, and there are unconfirmed reports that Saudi Arabia aided Israel and the US in fending off Iranian missiles during the attack on April 13. Such inputs and the rather ambivalent position taken by Saudi Arabia during this war raise questions about Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the Gaza war.

As regards Iran, it has shown that it is not going to exercise restraint in any future conflict situation. Also, it is the only one that has been pro-actively supporting and fighting the Gaza war with its proxies in the region. In case of the Rafah offensive going ahead, there is all likelihood that the engagements from Hezbollah into northern Israel will grow. In the past few weeks, Hezbollah rockets and missiles have successfully targeted Israeli command and communication centres in the North. The Houthis in Yemen continue to disrupt sea trade in the Red Sea and have the ability to up the ante if required.

The US Factor

The US is Israel’s main benefactor and has assured ‘ironclad’ support for it. However, it has also repeatedly stressed to Netanyahu that Rafah is a red line that should not be crossed. Instead, Israel should plan on precise intelligence based operations to flush out Hamas operatives and leaders. Just a few days earlier, on April 24, the US had approved $17 billion in military aid to Israel as part of an overall package of $94 billion, which includes Ukraine and Taiwan. However, its blind support for Israel is causing severe backlash back home. In the past week or so, there have been massive protests on university and college campuses in the US, wherein students and faculty have come out in open support for the Palestinians, calling out the genocide being committed in Gaza. In the election year, President Biden is caught between two conflicting requirements, the need to support Israel and pressure to do the right thing. With little time left until July, when he and Trump will join the battle directly for the presidency, the US is left with very few good options, except to prevail upon Netanyahu for an early end to the war.

Conclusion

Like the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the Rafah offensive too threatens to escalate the conflict if launched. Many of the countries in the region, which have so far maintained an ambivalent and ‘stand-off’ policy, will have to take a tough call. The nation on the front lines will definitely be Egypt, and its reaction will be the trigger for the others in the region. While the Iran-Israel spat was short, the Rafah offensive could spread very fast. On the other hand, if Israel is allowed to get away with the Rafah offensive, it will definitely be the end of solidarity in the region for the Palestinian cause for a long time, and the ‘two state solution’ may be lost forever, something that Netanyahu has long proposed. The only face-saving exit for either of the parties is an early and long lasting ceasefire in Gaza before any offensive in Rafah. Hopefully, better sense will prevail and thousands of innocent lives will be saved.

The author is Assistant Director, MP-IDSA. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.