 "Quad summit in America will bolster security and cooperation in Indo-Pacific")
With the United States all set to host the fourth in-person Quad Summit in Delaware, the home state of President Joe Biden, on September 21, this has come as a huge shot in the arm for the supporters of this initiative — and also as a dampener to all those who thought this grouping did not have much of a future because of lack of interest amongst its members to take it forward. They based this assessment on the fact that no Summit of the Quad had taken place for more than a year since the last one in Hiroshima, Japan, in May 2023.
It is to the credit of the Quad leadership that an innovative solution has been found by proposing to host the 2024 Summit in the US and pushing the Summit in India to next year in 2025. A similar innovative approach was adopted last year when it was decided to host the Summit, scheduled to be held in Sydney, Australia, in May, 2023, in Hiroshima, Japan on the sidelines of the G7 Summit, as President Joe Biden cancelled his visit to Australia from Japan at the last minute on account of some urgent negotiations in Washington DC.
Absence of a Summit in 2024 would have sent out a demoralising message that the Quad members are not fully invested in the objectives of this body and lack the commitment and mind space to advance it. By their decision to host the Summit in the US, the member countries have clearly demonstrated that they are keen and determined to take their cooperation to ensure peace, security, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific forward.
Rise of the Quad
The Quad has made significant progress since it was revived on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Manila, the Philippines in November 2017, exactly a decade after the ‘’Confluence of the Two Seas’’ Speech delivered by the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe to the Joint Session of the Indian Parliament in August 2007. The Quad meetings took place at Senior Official level till September 2019, when the first meeting at foreign minister level was held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2019, followed by an independent, self-standing meeting of Quad foreign ministers in Tokyo on October 6, 2020.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsA significant impetus was provided soon after President Biden assumed office in January 2021 with a virtual Summit amongst the four leaders in April 2021, followed by the first in-person Summit in Washington DC in September 2021. These were followed by subsequent Summits in Tokyo in May 2022 and Hiroshima in May 2023. The Delaware Summit will be the 4th in-person Summit and the one in India in 2025, the fifth one.
The Delaware Summit can be expected to build upon and take significant decisions on the several themes that have been discussed in the past Quad Summits and foreign ministers’ meetings.
Forthcoming Summit
As in the past meetings, the China factor can be expected to loom large over deliberations and decisions at the Summit. Although the name of China is not mentioned explicitly in any of the Joint Declarations that have been issued by the Summits starting in September 2021, most significant decisions point a finger at China’s expansionist activities in the Indo-Pacific region. It can be safely presumed that if China had not conducted itself in the assertive and imperialist manner it has done over the last 15 years, particularly since Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, there would have been no need to revitalise the Quad in 2017.
In the Joint Statement issued after the meeting amongst the Quad foreign ministers in Tokyo on July 29, 2024, the ministers reaffirmed their “steadfast commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is inclusive and resilient, and…to upholding the free and open rules-based international order, with its strong support for the principle of freedom, human rights, rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and peaceful settlement of disputes and prohibition on the threat or use of force in accordance with the UN Charter”.
With the aggressive behaviour of China in the South and East China Seas in mind and its violation of the international maritime law as enshrined in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the statement reads: “We emphasise the importance of adherence to international law, particularly as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to address challenges to the global maritime rules-based order, including with respect to maritime claims, and in the South and East China Seas. We… reiterate our strong opposition to any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion. We continue to express our serious concern about the militarisation of disputed features, and coercive and intimidating maneuvers in the South China Sea.”
The statement adds: “We also express our serious concern about the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels, the increasing use of various kinds of dangerous maneuvers, and efforts to disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation activities… We emphasise the importance of maintaining and upholding freedom of navigation and overflight, other lawful uses of sea, and unimpeded commerce consistent with international law…We reiterate that the award rendered by the Arbitral Tribunal on July 12, 2016, is a significant milestone, and the basis for peacefully resolving disputes between the parties.”
All references in the above para including the “award by the Arbitral Tribunal in July, 2016”, “serious concern about the militarisation of disputed features, and coercive and intimidating maneuvers in the South China Sea”, “dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels…and efforts to disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation activities” and several more, point to only one country’s belligerent actions—a China!
The spectrum of interest of Quad countries has gone beyond the maritime domain to include cyber and space domains. Over the past four years, several initiatives have been identified for taking forward cooperation in these spheres as well as others like critical and emergent technologies; healthcare; education and skill development; infrastructure; connectivity; terrorism including “concerted action against all UN-listed terrorist groups including Al-Qaeda, ISIS/Daesh, Lashkar e-Tayyiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), and their proxy groups”; climate change; commitment to protecting the information environment by supporting media freedom as well as addressing foreign information manipulation and interference, including disinformation; unwavering support for ASEAN’s unity and centrality, and the ASEAN-led regional architecture; “need for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace (in Ukraine) in line with international law, consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, including respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity”; crisis in Myanmar and grave humanitarian suffering and challenges to regional stability posed by it; complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and “condemnation of North Korea’s destabilising launches using ballistic missile technology and its continued pursuit of nuclear weapons”; deep concern at the worsening political, security and humanitarian situation in Myanmar, including in Rakhine; great interest in achieving peace and stability in West Asia, etc.
While reference to peace and security in Ukraine has found mention in an earlier Joint Declaration by the Quad leaders, it is for the first time that reference has been made in any Quad declaration, as in the ministerial statement issued in Tokyo in July 2024 to the award by the permanent court of arbitration at The Hague in July 2016 against Chinese claims in the South China Sea, and also, to action to be taken by Pakistan against LeT and JeM. This sends out a clear signal that the Quad countries are getting bolder in pushing back against China, as also its protégé Pakistan, for its terrorist activities.
The foreign ministers in Tokyo also announced a plan to expand its ambitious Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) programme to the Indian Ocean region that would facilitate monitoring the strategic waters.
Conclusion
Acceptance of the Quad is increasing among the neighboring ASEAN countries. It was for the first time that a reference to the Quad found mention in the bilateral Joint Statement issued after the recent visit by PM Modi to Singapore. It is likely that acceptability of the Quad will grow amongst countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and possibly some others who find themselves at the receiving end of China’s aggressive actions. It would be essential to keep the ASEAN and Pacific Islands countries fully informed and appreciative of the benefits of the several initiatives of the Quad countries. To strengthen ties with ASEAN, more tangible, visible projects for the public good will be needed, especially in health and infrastructure sectors.
In the Quad foreign ministers’ Declaration of July 2024, it is stated: “Through the Quad, we are supporting the region through practical cooperation on challenges such as maritime security, critical and emerging technologies, cyber security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, health security, climate change, counterterrorism, infrastructure and connectivity, and addressing the debt crisis through sustainable, transparent and fair lending and financing practices. We will continue to cooperate with regional partners to address shared challenges in our region.”
The biggest challenge that confronts the countries in the Indo-Pacific, particularly developing ones, is the shortage of finance for creating infrastructure and ensuring that they don’t succumb to the debt trap under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. These are the areas that the Quad will need to focus on in the coming years.
The Quad has to work assiduously to generate benefits in all the above spheres identified by it for the common people of the Indo-Pacific to garner their support for this initiative.
The Quad has covered significant ground over the last seven years since it was revived. In the current situation of geo-political flux, it has its task cut out for itself. Experience over the last four years gives reason for hope and confidence.
The writer is executive council member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, president, Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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