Putin’s North Korea visit, rising anti-West sentiments, and concerns for India

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in North Korea to a red-carpet welcome and was personally received by supreme leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. A rare visit after 24 years signals the two countries’ deepening alignment and Moscow’s need to source weapons from Pyongyang to sustain its ongoing war on Ukraine.

The two leaders were seen talking with each other for several minutes before embarking and riding together in the motorcade. The streets of Pyongyang were decked out with Russian flags and posters of Putin. Both leaders are expected to sign a new strategic partnership that will replace documents signed between Moscow and Pyongyang in 1961, 2000, and 2001.

Putin’s trip reciprocates Kim’s last September visit to Russia, when he travelled in his bullet-proof armoured train to Russia’s far eastern region. The trip also comes at a time when tensions remain high on the Korean peninsula. North Korea continues to fire ballistic and other test projectiles across South Korea and Japan. Following his visit to North Korea, Putin is scheduled to travel to Hanoi to reinforce traditional ties with Vietnam.

Russia Pushed into Chinese and North Korean Arms

During the recent Group of Seven (G7) summit, the Western leaders promised Ukrainian President Zelensky to use frozen Russian assets to back a $50 billion loan to the war-torn country. This angered Russia. Meanwhile, the US helplessly watches North Korean munitions and missiles, as well as Iranian drones, being received by Russian forces.

A few weeks earlier, Putin thanked Pyongyang for showing “unwavering support” for Russia’s war in Ukraine and said the two countries were “ready to confront the ambition of the collective West”. North Korean factories making arms for Russia are ‘operating at full capacity,’ as per South Korean allegations.

The US seems less concerned about the trip but more about the deepening relationship between these two countries. Washington, Seoul, and others have accused Pyongyang of providing substantial military aid to Russia’s war effort. In the last six months, North Korea has reportedly shipped about 6,700 containers to Russia, which contained nearly 3 million large-calibre artillery shells and nearly half a million rockets. Both countries have denied North Korean arms exports. Russia has been protecting North Korea by using its veto in the UN Security Council.

The all-powerful Putin won his fifth term earlier this year. Just last month, Putin made a state visit to Beijing, where he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a sweeping affirmation of their shared opposition to what they see as a US-led world order. Putin’s visit also bolsters North Korea, which continues to withstand years of international sanctions over its illegal nuclear weapons program. Russia, which had earlier supported nuclear-related sanctions against North Korea, has now been pushed by the West into Chinese and North Korean arms.

Could the West Isolate Russia?

The West thought that after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the sanctions thereon, Moscow would be increasingly isolated. The same did not happen. China, North Korea, many West Asian and African countries, and India took a neutral or supportive stand. Russia is the world’s largest country with well-endowed natural wealth. It has the second-most powerful military. Russia and China are teaming to break the Western monopoly over global institutions and standard-setting.

Traditional North Korea-Russia Relations

Soviet troops invaded the Japanese colony of Korea in 1945; by agreement with the US, the 38th parallel was the dividing line, with Moscow in charge to the North and Washington to the South. North Korea came under the control of the Soviet Civil Administration and People’s Committee of North Korea from 1945 to 1948.

The Soviet Union, the predecessor state of the Russian Federation, was the first to recognise North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPRK) on October 12, 1948, shortly after the proclamation, as the sole legitimate authority in all of Korea. The Democratic US intervened to stem the expansion of communism.

The Korean War was fought from June 25, 1950, to July 27, 1953. North Korea was supported by China and the Soviet Union, while South Korea was supported by the United Nations Command (UNC), led by the USA. Finally, the Korean peninsula was divided between the North and South along the 38th parallel.

North Korea was founded as part of the Communist bloc and received major Soviet military and political support. The two states share a border along the lower Tumen River, which is 17 kilometres long and was formed in 1860 when Tsar Alexander II acquired Ussuriland from Qing dynasty China in the Convention of Peking.

The Soviet Union had provided much support to North Korea during the Cold War. The comprehensive personality cult around North Korea’s ruling family was heavily influenced by Stalinism. China and the Soviet Union competed for influence in North Korea during the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, but North Korea tried to maintain good relations with both countries.

After the North Korean nuclear test on May 25, 2009, North Korea’s relations with China and Russia changed. Russia, fearing that North Korea’s success could lead to a nuclear war, joined China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US in starting a resolution that could include new sanctions. On June 15, 2009, China and Russia supported the UN sanctions on North Korea. However, the two countries stressed that they did not support the use of force. Things eased off after North Korea announced a moratorium on nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, and uranium enrichment a little later.

After the dissolution of the USSR, for a short while, the new Russian government under Boris Yeltsin refused to provide support for North Korea, favouring South Korea instead.

Renewed Russia-North Korea Relations

With the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the weakening of Russia, North Korea lost an important benefactor. Initially, Pyongyang looked for Chinese support.

Shortly after becoming president, Putin sought to renew ties. He visited Pyongyang in 2000 to meet Kim’s father, then-leader Kim Jong II, thus becoming the first Russian leader to do so. Russia and North Korea have since come closer. On June 5, 2012, the two sides concluded a boundary treaty between the two states, and in September 2012, Russia agreed to write off 90% of North Korea’s $11 billion historic debt to Russia as a sign of closer engagement with North Korea’s new leader.

In March 2016, following the January 2016 North Korean nuclear test, Kim Jong Un ordered the military to deploy the nuclear warheads so they could be fired at “any moment” and be prepared to launch pre-emptive attacks against its enemies. Russia unequivocally condemned the North Korean actions.

Kim travelled to Vladivostok, near the border, in 2019 to meet Putin. On March 2, 2022, North Korea was one of the five countries to vote against a United Nations resolution condemning the invasion. In 2023, Kim made a rare overseas trip to meet Putin at a Russian spaceport.

Kim has been supplying arms and munitions to refill Russia’s war expenditures. North Korea has also ramped up weapons testing and production to meet Russian demands. In 2024, North Korea is also sending workers to Russia, which lacks a workforce due to the war.

Both nations need each other most. Some are calling it a real “honeymoon” period. A summit with Putin upgrades North Korea’s international status and raises Kim’s domestic acceptability. It also balances Pyongyang’s excessive dependence on China, and that is very important for them.

North Korea has been conducting major weapons tests. Putin’s presence gives it an endorsement and will also embolden it. Pyongyang’s military industrial complex will get a further boost as Russia places more orders. Russia may also share some military production technology in return. Putin and Kim will vow to deepen trade and security ties. Russia has been a major supplier of wheat to North Korea, and has often bailed it out during financial crises and famine-like situations.

In 2022, North Korea became the third country (the second being Syria) to recognise the independence of the breakaway states of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine. In response to the recognition and support of Russia, Ukraine terminated diplomatic ties with North Korea.

During the ongoing visit, North Korea could agree to supply more munitions to Russia in exchange for economic aid and technology to enhance its nuclear weapons program. Putin also discussed developing trade and payment systems independent of Western control and expanding cooperation in tourism, culture, and education.

India’s Concern: The Pakistan Nuclear Connection

Pakistan-North Korea relations started deepening in the 1970s during PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s state visit to North Korea. Pakistan also tried forging alliances between North Korea, Iran, and Libya. During the Iran-Iraq War, North Korea and Pakistan supported Iran. North Korean made weapons and military equipment were shipped to the Pakistani port city of Karachi, from where they were transported by land and escorted by the Pakistani armed forces to the Iranian border. The Iranian state then used them to strike at Iraqi targets.

Pakistan has been accused by US officials of having secretly supplied North Korea with nuclear technology for military purposes. The CIA claimed to have tracked several air shipments between the two countries via satellite. The US Government believes that A. Q. Khan, a senior atomic research scientist, travelled to North Korea several times and provided crucial technological aid to the North Korean government to create highly enriched uranium.

In 2002, US intelligence officials leaked information that Pakistan had been the source of North Korea’s development of nuclear warheads. Abdul Qadeer Khan was placed under house arrest by the Pakistani government and was made to publicly apologise to the Pakistani public for “embarrassing” the country. The Pakistani government declined repeated calls for weapons inspectors to investigate Pakistan’s nuclear facilities or any attempts by the CIA to directly question Khan, despite growing Western pressure.

Faced with a weakened economy during the 1990s and China’s reluctance to face Western pressure about selling its M-11 missiles, Pakistan sought North Korea as an alternate supplier.

Benazir Bhutto had met North Korean officials on several occasions during the 1990s to discuss a deal that would give Pakistan access to the North Korean Rodong long-range missiles, in return, Pakistan would supply North Korea with civilian nuclear technology.

India-North Korea Relations

India and North Korea have tried to maintain cordial formal relations. Trade between the two has been growing, albeit slowly. India was one of North Korea’s biggest trade partners and a major food aid provider until 2017. However, India has implemented the UN Security Council economic sanctions and has ceased most trade with North Korea in April 2017. India did provide US $1 million in medical assistance to North Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic.

India has maintained that any peaceful agreement between North Korea and South Korea will be strongly endorsed. India has also clarified that it wants the reunification of Korea.

India has been very critical of North Korea’s nuclear proliferation record and has also voiced the need for its de-nuclearisation and disarmament. India has repeatedly condemned North Korean nuclear tests and views its nuclear programme as a threat to regional security. India has also been concerned about North Korean cyberattacks on the Indian banking system.

Putin’s visit to North Korea interests India to the extent that New Delhi would rather see Pyongyang under Moscow’s influence than Beijing’s.

The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.