 "Russia’s 'no-limit' partnership with China is not going to impact India's 'special and privileged' strategic partnership. Image/Sputnik via Reuters")
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to India next week (December 4-5) at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the annual summit – which was institutionalised over two decades ago – is timely as well as futuristic. It is a given that this time-tested and trusted special and privileged strategic partnership has been a ‘constant’ (as stated by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar) amidst the global chaos, unilateralism and polarisation.
In recent months hectic bilateral exchanges have been taking place to identify and finalise the outcomes and agreements during the forthcoming visit.
There have traditionally been meetings of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC) encompassing both economic and military cooperation, and this time round as well they would have explored new areas of cooperation, especially in keeping with the 21st-century economic, energy, technology, defence and security challenges.
Lags, wherever they exist, may have been addressed. New commitments are impacted by the fulfilment of previous commitments. President Putin has personally ensured that India is accorded the priority, despite the ongoing war, ‘special operations’, with Ukraine.
Trade and economy, technology, and tourism across a wide spectrum have provided a serious and dependable fulcrum of bilateral engagement during the past seven decades between India and the Soviet Union/Russia. Mutual respect, mutual sensitivities and mutual interests have guided the relationship.
Geopolitical developments, especially the indirect and direct consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, had a positive impact on India’s energy security. From less than 2 per cent, the crude imports now hover around 35-38 per cent of total Indian imports, and Russia became the topmost reliable partner in India’s energy security.
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View AllAlso, with its very high refining capacity, India emerged as a major exporter of petroleum products, including to Europe and the US, and helped stabilise the global supply chain disrupted by Western sanctions against Moscow. Likewise, increased import of fertilisers and other minerals and diamonds, etc, added to the trade value going up to nearly $70 billion.
Earlier both countries were trying with great difficulty to reach a target of $30 billion from $12-13 billion. No wonder an achievable trade target of $100 billion has been set. Since Indian exports are minuscule, both sides have set up a task force to identify newer areas of imports like pharmaceuticals, machinery, mining and the services sector. Cost competitiveness will have to be factored in along with financial and other support initially for the Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to explore and set up in the Russian market.
Connectivity, both multimodal and maritime, is essential for trade and strategic dependability and India is increasingly using the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC) to achieve the $2 trillion export aim by 2030.
On November 8, a cargo train from Russia arrived in Iran, carrying 62, 40-foot containers through Central Asia to Tehran via Kazakhstan & Turkmenistan (KTI rail link). Since March, India has been using the same route to send cargo from the Mundra Port to Central Asia via Bandar Abbas. India’s exports to Afghanistan via Chabahar have also crossed $1 billion. Likewise, greater geostrategic focus will have to be laid on the Chennai-Vladivostok and Northern routes to the Far East and the Arctic.
Russia, through surplus rupees, has a unique opportunity to invest as a convinced stakeholder in the Indian growth story and opportunity, especially as bilateral payment mechanisms have been smoothed out. Likewise, for Indian companies that have been hesitant due to Western sanctions and lack of knowledge about the Russian market, they must be proactive and seriously consider the Russian opportunity, especially in the Far East, for which PM Modi had also announced a line of credit of $1 billion.
In the current situation and uncertainty, and with India being targeted, irrationally and unjustifiably, by the Trump Administration, it is imperative that trusted partnerships are reinforced with greater stakes in each other’s strategic opportunity for mutual advantage.
Reportedly, Russia’s Central Bank is setting up its first official presence in India, with a representative office planned in Mumbai. This could provide a real-time exchange and support to trade and investment. It will also be useful to create some Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) which should be bilateral in nature and immune from unilateral sanctions like Caatsa, etc.
India and Russia have been collaborating in several plurilateral organisations like the Brics, SCO and G20, let alone in the UN, where Moscow supports India for a permanent seat at the reformed UNSC. The RIC (Russia, India and China) trilateral is again in the news. Moreover, India is also negotiating the Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, which will create more market access and facilitation.
Defence and security, along with space and civil nuclear cooperation, have been the key of the collaborative matrix. Brahmos missiles, a joint venture between the two countries, proved their mettle way beyond the expectations, creating security cover and more markets, as several countries from Southeast Asia have shown great interest in procuring them, especially Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
S-400 is increasingly becoming part of India’s ‘Sudarshan Chakra’ with a 360-degree cover. Russia is also planning to offer joint manufacturing of its Su-57 and S-500 in India with full technology and code transfer. These, along with several other deals and delays about the two other batteries and five new ones of S-400, as well as for other ammunition and spares, might be discussed in greater detail. Collaboration for civilian airlines and engines could be mooted.
People-to-People and cultural connections with greater focus on education, public diplomacy and science and technology and research and development cooperation with requisite emphasis on tourism may be institutionalised with a visa-on-arrival facility for Indian travellers who constitute high spenders and are looking for newer locations. The Indian film industry shooting films with India-Russia themes and postproduction facilities could provide effective areas of engagement. Russia also plans to recruit 1 million Indian workers. Hence, migration and mobility and requisite consular dialogue for their welfare might be instituted.
Peace for development is essential and a precondition. Although India has and will hold out against external pressures on the bilateral relationship, it expects and hopes that the war will end soon and sanctions on Russia will be lifted. President Putin will surely brief PM Modi on the ground situation and prospective outcomes of Trump’s Peace Plan to end the war. PM Modi has several times promoted dialogue and diplomacy, reiterating that this is not an era of war and that no solution can be found on the battlefield.
Russia’s ’no-limit’ partnership with China is not going to impact India’s ‘special and privileged’ strategic partnership. Being a proud country with dignity, Russia needs and wants India to counter hegemony both from the East and the West. Meanwhile, President Putin believes that ‘it is our dehyphenated policy insofar as our two major partners are concerned’. President Putin respects PM Modi and appreciates India’s strategic autonomy. PM Modi will also thank the Russian president for Russia’s steadfast support for fighting terrorism, especially in the context of the Pahalgam terror attack and India’s Op Sindoor.
President Putin and PM Modi’s bonhomie is, in my view, the strong basis and leverage of our special and privileged strategic partnership, which will again be reflected in several agreements to be signed and a joint statement to be issued during the incoming visit.
(The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)