Prelude to conflict? Israel's Gaza exit, tense Eid and Iran's guessing game

The Gaza war has taken a dramatic turn in the past few weeks. It all started on 1 April when an Israeli strike in Syria targeted the Iranian Consulate in Damascus resulting in the death of seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the seniormost commander in Lebanon and Syria. It is difficult to say what angered Iran more; the death of a prominent IRGC commander or the fact that the attack targeted its consulate building in a foreign land, which, as per international conventions is treated as sovereign territory and any military attack on it therefore, is an act of war. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that Israeli regime “must be punished and will be punished” for the attack, while President Ebrahim Raisi said it will “not go unanswered.”

The attack and the Iranian pronouncements in the following days have led to a mad scramble in Israel. Israel has recalled military personnel from leave and has put all surveillance systems on full alert. Air defence and anti-missile systems are monitoring the skies while the GPS systems have been disabled to disrupt guidance to incoming missiles. People have been reported emptying shelves in markets of food, water and medicines and are being moved to bomb shelters. There are reports that Israel is evacuating its embassies in the region too. The US too is on alert and is busy safeguarding its assets in the region. Despite the US claiming that it had no knowledge of the attack, Iran has made it clear that the US was a party to the attack and that ‘it had given the green signal for it.

In a surprise move, on 7 April, Israel suddenly decided to pull out troops from Gaza, especially southern Gaza where it had been conducting ground operations for the past few months. The IDF confirmed the development and stated that its 98th division had “concluded its mission” in Khan Younis and it was leaving the Gaza Strip to “recuperate and prepare for future operations.” One brigade of troops has been left in a small enclave which divides the Gaza Strip into two halves, north and South. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. General Herzi Halevi added that, despite the withdrawal of all of the army’s manoeuvring ground forces from the Gaza Strip, the war against Hamas continues and is far from over. As the news of withdrawal filtered in, speculative inputs started flooding the media space; some suggesting that Iran has told the US if Israel withdraws its forces from Gaza and signs a permanent ceasefire deal, it might escape its retaliation. Other reports suggested that Hamas and Israel had almost concluded a ceasefire deal and the pre-emptive withdrawal was part of it. Still, others suggested that Israel was redeploying forces to meet the Iranian offensive in the North. Iran and the US soon dismissed any reports of a ‘deal’ while Hamas too dismissed reports that any ceasefire deal was final. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his typical belligerent self, announced that there is no backing down and that date for a ground offensive in Rafah has been set.

Iran’s retaliation

Iran has vowed retaliation and has hinted at ‘direct strikes’ more than once in recent days. Whether Iran will choose the option of retaliating through strikes originating from Iranian soil is however another question. Iran has not been known to get provoked into joining battle directly in the past. Not when it has the luxury of proxies and militias which are potent and well equipped to achieve the desired effect without the show of the Iranian flag. The pressure on Iran this time to retaliate directly is however stronger, more due to the fact that Israeli strike had targeted its consulate which is a ‘sovereign territory’.

In a build-up to the retaliatory strikes, Iran has already commenced the ‘battle drills’. Its foreign minister was in Oman and Syria in the past few days. Although the visit to Oman was reported as talks towards coordination with Yemeni groups, however, it is well known that Oman has traditionally been the interlocutor between Iran and the US and even Israel. The visit to Damascus was to inaugurate the new consulate building, as a show of solidarity after the strike on the consulate as also a direct dare to Israel. Reports filtering in over the past two days also indicate that Iran has cleared the airspace of all civilian flights for the next 48-96 hours, has declared a large zone within Iran as a ‘no-fly zone’ which generally indicates a missile test. Could it also be a nuclear weapon test? With Iran nuclear programme progressing unchecked after the last round of talks failed in August 2022, it has surely accumulated enough highly enriched Uranium (weapon grade) for a few warheads and it definitely has the required technological knowledge or capability. It can’t therefore be ruled out although it may be slightly premature at this juncture for Iran to reveal this trump card. However, it all depends on what Iran is planning as its politico-military objectives in this war. Iran’s foreign minister has also reportedly called his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and Qatar which is standard diplomatic protocol with allies before it takes a major military or diplomatic step. It may be recalled that Iran’s NSA was in Astana, Kazakhstan last week, days after the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus and would have consulted with China, Russia and others on possible options for retaliation

Iran has also upped the ante in calling for Muslim unity against Israel and has urged all countries in the region to stop all trade with Israel immediately. In response, UAE has broken off all diplomatic coordination with Israel and Turkey announced on 10 April that it is imposing major trade restrictions with Israel till there is a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Some reports have indicated towards a plan to block the Strait of Hormuz too which could have a direct and immediate impact on crude oil prices, a common denominator affecting the global economy.

How will Iran retaliate

It is quite clear that Iran is going to strike back. However, the ‘how’ is the most important question in everybody’s mind right now. To best estimates, Iran is unlikely to take the option of originating strikes from its territory in the first go. A massive coordinated strike across all fronts is the more likely option. A massive rocket barrage from Northern Lebanon by Hezbollah, missile strikes (carrying Iranian ballistic missiles) from Syria, drone strikes originating from Yemen or the Persian Gulf, and ground attacks by small guerilla teams from Gaza, Lebanon, and even Sinai is a possible scenario. A freshly assembled resistance force attacking Israeli assets across Jordan too is a possibility. A sea blockade in the Persian Gulf is likely. Pointed terror strikes on Israeli or US embassies in the region may be a part of the plan too. Plus, as reports already indicate, the Russian forces are planning a massive strike in Ukraine. The two sets of strikes may well be coordinated to create total chaos and confusion in the ‘Western minds’ at the same time. In the build-up to the strikes and preparing the battlefield, Iraqi resistance forces have already struck key points in Israel including Haifa port, Eliat port by drones, causing damage. Strikes from Hezbollah have been successful on Israel’s key surveillance and communication posts along the border in the North. Massive cyber-attacks may already be in the process too.

When will the strikes come

It is difficult to say whether Israel has been successful in finally baiting out Iran to join battle directly this time or whether Iran was waiting for such a ‘red line’ to be crossed so that it could declare war legitimately on Israel. Either way, the battle lines are clearly drawn now. With Eid now over, it is now up-to Iran when and how to respond. It has to be wary of a pre-emptive strike by Israel on Iran, but that would be the last straw and could draw in more punitive strikes than Israel and the US combined can jointly handle.

Israel and the US have been on total alert for the last ten days. A situation like this cannot continue for long and is bound to cause fatigue and complacency as well as induce a ‘false trigger’. Whether Iran will wait that long is a question mark, but it seems unlikely. The Israeli strike in Gaza on 11 April, the day of Eid, resulting in the death of three sons of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh may well be the final nail in the coffin. A massive retaliation is likely sooner than later and is destined to change the current landscape of the region, as we currently know it.

The author is Assistant Director, MP-IDSA. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.