 "Post-Cold War era and Great Power competition: Implications and options for India")
Post-World War II saw the emergence of two power blocks: the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), formed in 1949, and the Soviet Union-led Warsaw Pact, formed in 1955. NATO was meant to defend against the spread of Soviet-led communism. The Warsaw Pact was to counter NATO. The resultant Cold War saw huge military buildups and competition in the space and nuclear fields. At its peak between 1975 and 1985, the US and Soviet Union had a nuclear weapons stockpile of nearly 60,000 warheads.
The collapse and breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the Cold War. The period saw arms control treaties and a significant reduction of nuclear weapons, and stockpiles between the two are now around 6,000 each. The period also saw the folding up of the Warsaw Pact, but a significant increase in NATO, which, as of date, has 32 members. The world became unipolar, with the US dominating the security scene. This was also the period when the world concentrated on the War against Terror. West Asia became the area of focus.
By 2007, Russia had begun to consolidate its power under President Putin. China had started rising as an economic and military power. China unilaterally usurped nearly three million sq. km of the South China Sea (SCS), and became aggressive for Taiwan unification. The Quad was formed with the US, Japan, Australia and India to thwart China’s expansionist designs in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile in Europe, Ukraine was showing interest in joining NATO. This would have brought the alliance on the Russian doorstep. This was unacceptable to Russia. Initially to secure its Black Sea fleet, Russia arranged to annex Crimea in 2014. With Ukraine still not relenting on NATO, Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Effectively that brought an end to the post-Cold War era.
Post-Cold War Era Begins
Despite massive NATO support to Ukraine, Russia continues to hold nearly 20 percent Ukrainian territory. The American and European public opinion shows war fatigue, and are not keen to pump more money or weapons. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and several militias in Syria and Iraq are part of Iran funded and backed “Axis of Resistance”. Now, they have a new backer: Russia. Developments in West Asia (Gaza war and Houthis) have also complicated the US’ desire to focus more on the Indo-Pacific.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsRussia has secured lifelines for its economy and defence enterprises, while navigating to retain its military influence outside of Europe. In spite of economic sanctions, Russia has once again emerged as a power to contend with. Russia supports legacy multilateral institutions, along with China. It is strengthening BRICS, and is pushing for the de-dollarisation of international finance. Russia and China want to prevent the US and its allies from writing international rules.
Russia has recalibrated its entire foreign policy to fit the needs of a long struggle. Russia has already expanded its trade and political relations with non-Western countries. The pillars of Russia’s global foreign policy are self-preservation and global de-compartmentalisation.
China has not only emerged as an economic power that is peddling influence around the world through Belt and Road and other economic initiatives, but has also become a significant military and Space power that wants to initially exert influence in Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, and later across the globe. China has also been modernising and expanding its nuclear arsenal. It is not willing to sit with the US and Russia to discuss arms control or evolve new treaties. The antagonism between Russia and the US has already put arms-control treaties on slow-burner.
China wants a uni-polar Asia with clear dominance, and bi-polar World where they are equal to the USA. The US has become conscious of this great power competition and is working on a strategic rethink.
By the 2030s the US will, for the first time in its history, face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential adversaries. This will create new stresses on stability and new challenges for deterrence, assurance, arms control, and risk reduction.
The US has created an environment of pushing Russia and China together. This dual-containment strategy may have been a bad idea. Counter-terrorist operations which had taken centre-stage following the 9/11 terrorist attacks have become less prominent than the approach to counter China and/or Russia. The US grand strategy, geopolitics, military build-up, and posture has to factor this now.
Authoritarian vs Democratic Approach and World Order
The US fears that both China and Russia governed by authoritarian regimes want to change world order that actively undermine the democratic approach. They are also concerned about the political processes of these countries, leveraging technology and supply chains for coercion and repression, and exporting an illiberal autocratic model of international order. While it sees Russia as a source of disruption and instability globally, it lacks the across the spectrum capabilities of China.
China is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective. Beijing’s ambitions to create an enhanced sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and to become the world’s leading power is a core competition. China and Russia’s increasing alignment with each other also poses challenges.
Partnerships and Build Up in Indo-Pacific Region
The Quad was formed in the Indo-Pacific to essentially check China, albeit overtly, to keep freedom of Seas. With tacit approval of the US, Japan has begun increasing defence spending and will hit at least 2 per cent of GDP soon. Australia is now part of AUKUS and will soon have nuclear submarines and also increase military spending and strength. The US has signed all enabling logistics and communication agreements with India to improve interoperability. Quad and other like-minded partners are regularly meeting at head-of-state and ministerial levels. They are also carrying out joint military exercises much more regularly.
Since 2008, the US has allowed transfer of many military platforms and equipment to India, which for long was considered a Soviet/Russian friend. Many European partners like the UK, France and Germany are showing greater interest and participation in the region. The US is also working more closely to strengthen Taiwan and South Korea. Interestingly, most of the US partners in the region are successful and growing large economies, whereas China’s friends like North Korea, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Pakistan, all have economic and political complexities. But China has the advantage of proximity and the US has to act with support of partners, in particular for countering improving Chinese anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s information operations, and so called salami-slicing tactics in the seas of South and East China, and Line of Actual Control (LAC) have to be countered.
European Security and Strengthening of NATO
NATO has seen 15 new members since Soviet collapse. Sweden could join in March 2024. France had left NATO in 1966 but nevertheless continues to adhere to the NATO requirements and maintains a liaison relationship with NATO’s integrated military staff, continues to sit in the council, and to maintain and deploy ground forces in West Germany.
In the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict, the US could urge the European partners to take greater responsibility for European security. Most NATO members have begun spending more on defence, inching towards the 2 per cent of GDP target. Also direct contributions to joint NATO funding have been increased.
The US’ Military Capability Approach
As the risk of confrontation and conflict increases, the US and its partners are looking at retaining lead in military technologies and capabilities for conventional warfare. They are trying to increase the speed of innovation and development and deployment of new platforms and weapons. They are working on improving mobilization capabilities for an extended-length large-scale conflict. Supply chain security involving components, materials, software and energy is being re-worked. Improving capabilities for countering so-called hybrid warfare and grey-zone tactics. Continued enhanced funding of the US military and the military-industry would remain a priority.
The US has reviewed and revised the National Military Strategy, and October 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) that look at the Greater Power Competition (GPC) and the strategic challenges. The US military will have to act urgently to sustain and strengthen deterrence.
The US sees Russia present serious threats like nuclear, long-range conventional missiles, cyber and information operations, counter-space, chemical and biological weapons, undersea warfare, and extensive grey zone campaigns. Like China, Russia seeks to exploit advantages in geography.
There would be a need to contain and dissuade growing and strengthening People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from coercion and considering aggression. China has expanded and modernised nearly every aspect of the PLA, with a focus on offsetting the US military advantages. Conflict with China is neither inevitable nor desirable. Strategic competition has to be managed from a position of strength.
Clearly China and Russia are creating new stresses on strategic stability. The US is also concerned about possible emergence of regional hegemons. Washington seeks to bolster its conventional war-fighting capabilities. The new operational concepts include Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) Agile Combat Employment (ACE), Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) and Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO).
Technology Impact
The emerging technologies are having force-multiplier impact on warfare. Maintaining superiority in conventional weapon technologies is important. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and increased autonomy of uninhabited platforms and weapons is changing conflict dynamics. Cyber, integrated network system-of-systems, microelectronics, Space, and human-machine interfaces are areas of future action. Hypersonic weapons will greatly reduce defence response time. This will also impact deterrence stability.
Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) will significantly impact warfare. Rare earth processing capability and advanced materials will be critical for defence needs. Military applications of quantum technology impact all domains of warfare by significantly enhancing measurement capability, sensing, precision and computation power and efficiency. Mobilisation capabilities for extended-length conflict including industrial scaling up have to be planned. Innovation and speed in weapon system development and deployment is critical. Repositories of leading technologies will influence and control the world. For long, this was an area dominated by the US, but China is fast catching up or even overtaking.
India’s Threat Perception and Challenges
India is still a developing country, albeit the fastest growing large economy. India’s first priority is to grow its economy and achieve inclusive development for its masses. With the largest population, India will take significantly more time to increase per capita incomes. India also has serious territorial disputes with two very large and significantly powerful neighbours, both of which have nuclear weapons and large militaries, and India has had a history of conflicts with them.
Meanwhile, the global competition between the US and China has brought the risk of confrontation/conflict closer home to the Indo-Pacific region. India’s recent closeness to the US and membership of Quad and other supposedly China-Containment groupings has angered China.
China sees India as a competitor in regional influence. India’s dominance of the Indian Ocean could be seen as a risk to Chinese shipping, bulk of which passes through the Indian Ocean. China also sees India as a road-block in its Belt and Road Initiative. One can thus see China’s increasing muscle-flexing approach.
Even though the Chinese economy is growing slower than India, it will take nearly 50 more years for India to catch up if the current growth rates are sustained. India continues to see growing imports from China. Despite attempts to promote home manufacturing, decoupling from China has not been possible or even desirable.
In its quest to compete with the US, China’s military and space capabilities are also growing considerably. China’s investments in defence R&D are also making it relatively independent of the Western technologies. India has to factor China’s rising military power.
Options for India
As the world prepares for an emerging three-power strategic situation, India needs to tread carefully and intelligently to secure its well-deserved place on the global high table without any knee-jerk actions. India has historically been the ‘Vishwa Guru’ who has seen and espoused the world to be “One Earth, One Family, (with) One Future”.
India was the founder of the movement and has always believed in Non Alignment with power blocks. It is not in India’s interest to join military alliances. India must continue to carry out interoperability related military exercises with all friendly countries. Its current ‘strategic autonomy’ approach is well thought out. India has traditionally been supportive of the neighbouring countries and the lesser endowed ones. India’s ‘vaccine diplomacy’ was lauded globally. India has repeatedly demonstrated capability and intent to support all members of the international community during humanitarian disasters, and even economic crises.
From a near all-time low at the time of independence, India has risen to become the fifth largest economy in a very short time. India has played its diplomatic cards very maturely, especially in the last decade. The world not only sees India has a large market but also a genuine caring friend. The West, Russians, Asian nations, and Africa look at India with both awe and hope.
In the emerging global great power competition, India has to play the role of a balancing force and a global statesperson. India needs to continue to maintain good relations with the West and Russia, and simultaneously work to reduce tensions with China without making any compromises. India must expand its manufacturing base not only to decouple from China but also to reduce external dependence. In the interim it is important to secure supply chains by building partnerships.
India must work to reduce defence imports. Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) is very important especially in defence and security equipment manufacture. The ecosystem and most building blocks are in place. India needs constructive partnership to bridge the gaps. India must invest more in R&D, especially related to emerging technologies which can have game-changing multiplier effects. There is a need for more investments in space assets. New Delhi must hasten development of infrastructure in the Himalayas and in its Island territories for both economic and security reasons. India is on the right path, of becoming a responsible great power, and a balancer of great power competition.
The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
