PM Modi in Moscow: How India and Russia are critical for each other's strategic autonomy

India and Russia, taking from the legacy of Soviet times except during a short hiatus in the post-Soviet space, have continued to grow from strength to strength. This was especially so with the advent of President Vladimir Putin, who took over as President of the Russian Federation in 2000 and has only recently taken the oath of office for the fifth time for a six-year term. His presidency could technically last until 2036. President Putin has been personally invested in nurturing and reorienting the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership with India across an unusually wide spectrum of collaborative matrix.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on being elected for the third time, has chosen to make his first bilateral visit to Russia, which clearly indicates the priorities that New Delhi accords to this partnership of trust. There is no doubt that there is a perceptible bonhomie between the two leaders. They have met many times and spoken on several occasions on issues of mutual concern, as the global geopolitical scenario remains in flux. More importantly, there remains a historic trust in the strength of bilateral interests and complementarity in several critical areas, which act as drivers for the uniqueness of this strategic partnership.

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One of the key factors for this ever-expanding partnership has been the commitment of leadership at the highest level, as the institutional linkages from defence to energy and cyber security, artificial intelligence, information and communication technologies, science and technology, technology transfer, and from civil nuclear to space to trade and investment have continued to deepen despite dramatic changes in the global geopolitical landscape. Both countries also engage in and collaborate in several international forums, like the RIC, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and G20. No relationship is perfect; hence, it is important to review and remove the irritants on a periodic basis in a free and frank exchange at the highest level.

India’s principled policy stand of ‘dialogue, diplomacy for peace’ and that ‘this was not an era of war’ and imports of significant quantities of crude, taking the trade to $65 billion, have been highly appreciated by Russia, especially in the wake of Western sanctions. Although certain calibration is expected due to the emerging global order with an intensifying Sino-Russian axis, I would argue that Russia needs China to counter the West, and Moscow would need New Delhi to counter the expanding Chinese influence in its own periphery and the regional forum.

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Moscow has often appreciated India’s strategic autonomy and principled stand on global issues, which have often been criticised by Western countries. They want to myopically dismiss it as simply opportunistic and hedging. Gradually, they are also beginning to understand that a resurgent and benevolent India cannot be bullied nor can it be bracketed into a closed alliance architecture since it believes and acts in concert with its principled policy, national interest, and philosophy of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’—the world is one family.

PM Modi‘s 3.0 is marked by immediate engagement with important partners, beginning with our key neighbours and strategic Indian Ocean countries, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, the Maldives, and the Seychelles, in pursuance of its ‘Neighbourhood First ‘and ‘SAGAR’ policies, at his swearing-in ceremony. He also visited and conferred with our major G7 partners and other friendly leaders in Italy, where India has become nearly a permanent invitee. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina came to India in a span of ten days on a state visit. PM Modi could not go to the SCO Summit in Astana, but his speech read out by Foreign Minister S Jaishankar was quite loud and clear: the abdication of double standards must begin at home, especially on terrorism, territorial integrity, and sovereignty issues and concerns of member states. The ongoing war in the Middle East and its adverse impact and escalation are also major areas of concern, as is the welfare of the Global South.

Now comes PM Modi’s visit to Moscow (July 8–9) after a gap of five years and the first since the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, followed by the Prime Minister’s first visit in 42 years to Vienna (July 9–10). It is quite likely that after conferring with Western leaders and President Zelensky of Ukraine, PM Modi, as an honest interlocutor for dialogue, diplomacy, and peace, will try to ascertain from President Putin the realistic scope of de-escalation and peace as well as a rational way forward since its unbridled continuation and further escalation could end up in a global disaster. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, while calling the visit highly important, mentioned that no issues were off the table.

The Indo-Russian relationship matrix is deep and wide in expanse, with institutional mechanisms leading the charge. Russia is one of the first countries with which India has had a functional annual summit-level mechanism, including informal summits to address the key challenges at the highest level. This time also, both leaders will have a private dinner, discussions, and delegation-level talks. Apart from bilateral issues and global challenges, PM Modi is very likely to talk about Sino-Pak toxicity in our neighbourhood even as New Delhi continues to pursue the path of diplomacy to resolve differences and disputes.

To enhance its footprint and regional engagement in Russia, India is expected to open two more consulates in the largest country in the world. PM Modi’s last visit (2019) was to the strategic Far East, where President Putin wants Indian businesses and industry to play a greater role, which includes the presence of an Indian workforce as well. These could balance out the increasing Chinese presence in the region. India had even offered a line of credit of $1 billion for promoting projects, which needs to be speeded up. As for the manpower, some issues regarding their reported employment on the war front are a major concern for the Indian government, and seeking their disengagement and return would be a priority. However, for that to be plugged at home, it is imperative that Indian recruiting agencies be put under a strong scanner so that innocent people are not cheated on and put in danger.

Defence and security, space, and nuclear cooperation are the lynchpins of the relationship; hence, the signing of the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS) would enable greater maritime cooperation. As for the availability of new weapon systems, India would have reviewed the performance of these especially advanced ones in the ongoing Eurasian war, which could drive a more informed decision. Connectivity corridors, especially Chennai-Vladivostok (in the context of the Arctic as well) and the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), have become more relevant in the fast-moving global transition, and hence the focus would be to optimise their operations.

India’s long-term management contract with the Iranian Chabahar Port, now within the ambit of INSTC, will act as a catalyst. Trade and investment, especially the handling of surplus roubles due to the increasing import of crude, and payment mechanisms will need to be smoothed out.

Moscow has an excellent opportunity to utilise these funds to enhance its footprint across the Indian economic landscape by making strategic investments, taking advantage of ‘Make in India’ for the world, and other avenues and mutually beneficial opportunities in a resurgent India. India has already conveyed its reluctance to make or pay in Yuan or support the Chinese enterprise to make it an arbiter of the proposed BRICS currency. Russia is the chair of BRICS Plus this year, and the inclusion of a new category of members and dialogue mechanisms will also form part of the discussions, as 33 countries have expressed interest in becoming members. PM Modi is expected to visit Kazan (in Russia) for the BRICS Summit later in the year.

There is always a lot to deliberate upon in this unique and trusted partnership, especially when President Putin and PM Modi enjoy an exceptional level of comfort and confidence.

The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.