Palestinian issue on brink: Has time for two-state solution come?

The terror attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, on Israelis, killing more than 1100 and injuring hundreds, were unprecedented. More. Importantly and perhaps beyond the imagination of Hamas, they were able to take 250 hostages. The conscience of the world was shaken and shocked. The majority of the countries, including India, condemned and sympathised with the Jewish state. Israelis were shocked not only by the incident but also by the failure and breach of their highly acclaimed security, military and intelligence systems and networks.

The ultra-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose the path that they have always chosen to deal with Palestinian insurgency — use of a forbidding and disproportionate force which should teach the lessons for generations to come. Carpet bombing and indiscriminate killing of nearly 60,000 Palestinians, displacing over 1.2 million, and the blockade of the humanitarian assistance and aid to the starving hapless Gazans frittered away the global sympathy during the past nearly two years that Israel had earned. Israel is still fighting in Gaza, whose fate itself is uncertain. Nearly fifty hostages and the dead bodies of some hostages still remain and are used as negotiating leverage by the decimated Hamas.

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Over time two things have happened. Hamas, due to the Israeli response, was able to once again bring the Palestinian issue to the forefront, especially in the Arab world, which had developed certain ‘Palestine fatigue’ and was beginning to look at the relationship with Israel pragmatically. The Abraham Accords overtly and security cooperation covertly have become the norm in West Asia as far as Israel is concerned. But the Arab street also lightened up seeing the plight of ordinary Palestinians whose Nakba was being designed by both Trumpian Riviera and Netanyahu’s planned exodus of them to other countries, including in Africa, in exchange for some key support in return, especially from the US. But this has further backfired. Palestinians claim the ‘River to the Sea’, like the Jews.

Finding an acceptable outcome, despite the historicity and injustices, has been an intractable issue, especially as the major powers have stayed partisan and the regional powers complicit by default. But developments in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war forced the Saudis to take the lead for the ‘two-state solution’ and effectively polarised the regional countries and the Arab League to make it a precondition for normalisation of ties with the Jewish state.

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Although the US stayed committed to its iron-domed relationship with Israel and Netanyahu has been invited to the White House four times during Trump 2.0 to show support and to stabilise the region, there is an increasing discomfort even in the current administration as more and more Europeans are becoming more vocal in favour of the two viable states.

France, Spain, Ireland, Norway and even the UK have been more than eager to support and recognise the cause and state of Palestine. France also recognised the Palestinian state, with the tally reaching nearly 150 out of 193. Brazil declared its intent to join South Africa at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to prove the genocidal case against the Netanyahu government. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant against Netanyahu and others and even filed for an investigation against Hungary for its failure to apprehend Netanyahu during his visit to Budapest.

Turkey and Brazil are imposing sanctions on Israel. Malaysia even called for the expulsion of Israel from the UN as if they really bothered about it. PM Anwar Ibrahim denounced “barbarism", demanding global sanctions and Palestinian state recognition. Qatar and Saudi Arabia condemned statements by the Israeli Minister of Justice and the Knesset resolution regarding the annexation of the ‘Occupied’ West Bank. Saudi Arabian and Indonesian leaders conferred on Palestine. Egypt and Jordan — the two treaty allies — even contemplated military action against Israel.

Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, met with a Hamas delegation for a meeting intended to send a message that Ankara continues to be willing to host members of the group and conduct a strategy that involves backing Hamas. Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan used flowery language against Netanyahu: “PM Netanyahu has long left Hitler behind in terms of genocide”. Despite that, China and Turkey remained major trade partners of Israel.

Tel Aviv had even proscribed the entry of UN Secretary-General António Guterres due to his comments on the largest number of UN personnel killed in the ensuing war. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) — the aid-distributing agency — was banned by Israel. Despite Israel’s military engagement and military successes against Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as their benefactor Iran, the domestic discontent against his government has increased due to the hostages still in Hamas custody.

Hamas is losing not only its fighters but also political leverage as the time passes and the plight of Gazans remains precarious. Hence, the continuation of Hamas in the day-after scenario is bleak, as even the Palestine Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa asked that Hamas must disarm and give up control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority to restore security in the war-torn territory while speaking at the UN conference. As such, the Arab countries have had no sympathy with the Iranian proxies, which provided Tehran with an asymmetric regional-political-military advantage.

Domestic discontent and opposition against Netanyahu and his right wingers have also increased. Former Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman has alleged that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is deliberately aiming to prolong the war in Gaza to coincide with national elections since two of his coalition partners dropped him.

Likewise, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid commented, “In the State of Israel, as of today, there is a minority government. A minority government cannot send soldiers into battle. A minority government cannot decide who will live and who will die. A minority government cannot decide on the fate of Gaza or conclude a settlement with Syria or with Saudi Arabia. It has no authority, it has no right, and it is an illegitimate government. The time has come for elections. Now.”

China’s role in this whole West Asian conflict has been somewhat lackadaisical and limited to occasional statements. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, ‘Whoever sees the Israeli war on Gaza as a war against terrorism is politically and morally blind.’ The Chinese Foreign Minister further accused the US, saying, ‘America commits genocide with two wings: weapons to Israel and vetoes in the UN Security Council.’

In the same way, the Australian prime minister said, “Israel is committing war crimes by killing the children and denying aid to Gaza.” Canada, like the UK, intends to recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September. The Netherlands officially labelled Israel as a national security threat for the first time over political interference, especially with regard to the ICC. However, the US, as expected, dismissed such recognitions, which will complicate the ceasefire efforts. President Trump, on French President Macron’s move to recognise Palestine as a state, disregarded it, saying, “He’s a different kind of a guy; he’s okay; he’s a team player pretty much. But here’s the good news: what he says doesn’t matter. It’s not going to change anything. … this statement doesn’t carry any weight.” Hope it is not prophetic.

Although Israeli Defence Forces could continue to pound the Gazans or want to annex the West Bank, the impunity from this unilateralism may have run its course. Even Trump appears confused by the turn of events when he says that Israel has to make a decision. He was unhappy when the ceasefire deal fell through, and the new one is still wanting.

Umpteen efforts have been made to arrive at a reasonable ceasefire deal with the support of Qatar, Egypt and the US. In fact, after being frustrated with undue delays and complexities of the two intransigent actors, Trump’s Middle East Envoy had direct talks and deals with Hamas and the Houthis. In the most recent, even if highly tenuous deal under a US-backed plan, Hamas would release 10 hostages and 18 bodies over 60 days in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, increased aid, and talks to end the war, with US guarantees as long as negotiations remain serious. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, generally hawkish, also said any opportunity to free captives held in Gaza should not be missed, after US President Donald Trump said “Israel” had agreed to finalise a 60-day ceasefire. These are yet again in a limbo.

Meanwhile, the recognitions or readiness by several countries have evoked utter condemnation by the Israeli establishment. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel will not permit the creation of a Palestinian state under current conditions, regardless of international pressure. In a direct rebuke to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Netanyahu said, “Starmer rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims.” He warned, “A jihadist state on Israel’s border TODAY will threaten Britain TOMORROW,” adding, “Appeasement always fails. It will fail you too. It will not happen.” The two-state solution appears an anathema to them.

The UN conference for the implementation of the two-state solution and the issue of Palestine was co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia. 17 nations—including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the EU, and the Arab League—signed a joint declaration urging Hamas to disarm and end its rule over Gaza. The “New York Declaration” calls for Hamas to hand control to the Palestinian Authority “in line with the goal of a sovereign and independent Palestinian State”. They also condemned the attacks committed by Hamas against civilians on October 7 while decrying Israeli seizures, starvation and killing of Gazans and settler violence in the West Bank. Possible deployment of foreign forces has been envisaged in the day-after scenario.

India, which has expressed its deepest concerns on the continuing humanitarian crisis in Palestine while providing assistance, had recognised the State of Palestine as early as 1988 and was the first non-Arab country to do so. It has been a supporter of the Palestinian cause even as it developed a closer and strategic partnership with Israel since 1992. At the high-level conference, the Indian statement of support by Ambassador P Harish was categorical and reiterated the contours yet again, which include an immediate ceasefire, sustained and unimpeded humanitarian assistance, the release of all hostages, and the path of dialogue and diplomacy, and there is no alternative to these measures.

India is a votary for a stable arrangement that caters to the security needs of both sides. A sovereign, viable and independent State of Palestine within recognised and mutually agreed borders living side by side in peace with Israel is a prerequisite for enduring peace and sustainable development.

Hope the sanity prevails on all concerned for their own benefit. While militant outfits must recognise Israel’s right to exist, the Israelis must understand that peace in itself is a bountiful reward for them. Gandhi’s ideas have a relevance here: “An eye for an eye leaves everyone blind.”

The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.