 "Despite increasing recognition, Palestine’s full statehood remains unlikely without significant geopolitical change. Representational image: Reuters")
In a historic resolution on September 19, the UN General Assembly—with 145 votes in favor, five against, and six abstentions—approved Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s address at the annual gathering of world leaders in New York on Thursday, September 25. He will speak via video link, as the US has denied him a visa. Also, on Sunday, September 21, four major allies of US—United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Portugal gave recognition to independent State of Palestine to be followed by France on Monday, September 22.
Brief History:
The Israel–Palestine conflict, rooted in the late 19th-century rise of Zionism and Arab nationalism, worsened under the British Mandate (1917–1948). The Balfour Declaration of 1917, which proposed the establishment of a Jewish “national home” in Palestine, fuelled Jewish immigration and triggered civil unrest, revolts, and clashes throughout the 1920s to 1940s. The situation deteriorated after the UK abruptly withdrew and referred the issue to the UN in 1947.
UN Partition Plan, 1947
On November 29, 1947, through Resolution 181 (II), the UN General Assembly ended the British Mandate and proposed partitioning Palestine into two independent states—one Jewish and one Arab—along with an internationally administered Jerusalem.
The plan gave:
56 per cent of the land to the Jewish state (they had 7 per cent then),
43 per cent to the Arab state,
0.67 per cent (Jerusalem) under international administration.
The plan was accepted by the Jewish leadership but rejected by the Arabs as unfair.
On May 14, 1948, the Jewish community declared an independent state—Israel—just before the end of British rule. Israel was recognised by the UN the following year.
The UN Partition Plan gave birth to the two-state theory.
The Two-State Theory
The two-state theory proposes the creation of two sovereign nations—Israel for Jews and Palestine for Palestinian Arabs—coexisting side by side.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThough still theoretical, it is now a de facto internationally endorsed framework for resolving the conflict. It emphasises self-determination, territorial sovereignty, political recognition, and a long-term path to peace.
Between 1948 and 2025, there have been seven wars and multiple peace efforts, but the solution remains elusive.
The 1948 War
The day after Israel declared independence, it was attacked by five Arab nations—Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The ten-month war ended in 1949 with a series of UN-brokered armistice agreements, establishing a ceasefire line known as the Green Line.
At war’s end, Israel controlled 78 per cent of Palestine, 22 per cent more than allocated under the UN Partition Plan.
The war became known as:
War of Independence in Israel, and
Nakba (Catastrophe) for Palestinians—over 15,000 killed and more than 800,000 displaced.
Post-war:
Gaza Strip came under Egypt’s control,
West Bank and East Jerusalem were annexed by Jordan.
However, key issues—Palestinian refugees and Arab claims—remained unresolved, setting the stage for future conflicts.
The 1967 War (Six-Day War)
Fearing an imminent attack by Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, Israel launched a pre-emptive strike against Egypt’s air force. The war irrevocably altered Middle East boundaries and had monumental consequences for Palestinians.
Israel annexed:
Sinai Peninsula and Gaza from Egypt,
Golan Heights from Syria,
East Jerusalem and the West Bank from Jordan.
The dream of a Palestinian state became even more distant.
Israel later formally amalgamated the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, and made the West Bank a de facto part of Israel. It is now actively seeking to re-annex the entire Gaza Strip, despite the International Court of Justice viewing these areas as occupied Palestinian territories.
Other Wars
Beyond the 1948 and 1967 wars, more conflicts have reshaped borders and deepened hostilities. Here’s a brief overview:
1956 Suez Crisis
Israel, UK, France vs Egypt: Egypt nationalised the Suez Canal. Israel briefly invaded Sinai, later withdrew under global pressure.
1973 Yom Kippur War
Israel vs Egypt and Syria: Surprise Arab attack; Israel repelled invasion. Led to Egypt-Israel peace treaty (Camp David Accords).
1982 Lebanon War
Israel vs PLO, Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah: Israel expelled PLO from Lebanon and occupied southern Lebanon until 2000.
2006 Second Lebanon War
Israel vs Hezbollah: Triggered by abduction of Israeli soldiers; widespread destruction in Lebanon; no clear victory.
2023–present Israel–Hamas War
Israel vs Hamas (Gaza) and related groups including Hezbollah with Iranian backing: Massive humanitarian crisis in Gaza, tens of thousands dead, growing regional instability.
The Recognition
On Monday, September 22, 2025, a summit convened by France and Saudi Arabia, just ahead of the UN General Assembly, will see many countries formally recognize the independent State of Palestine: France, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino. The UK, Canada, Australia and Portugal recognised the State of Palestine on Sunday, a day ahead of the summit.
Germany and New Zealand will attend in support but won’t sign the declaration.
This marks a tectonic shift, as these are among the staunchest US allies.
At Striking Distance
Since the PLO’s official declaration of Palestinian statehood on November 15, 1988, over 151 countries have recognised Palestine. On Monday, this number will rise beyond 157—just shy of the 165 that recognise Israel.
This includes:
NATO countries,
14 G20 members,
Four of the five UN Security Council permanent members.
Deep Frustration
The wave of recognitions by US allies reflects deep frustration over Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, which has:
Killed more than 65,200 Palestinians, mostly women and children,
Injured over 150,000,
Left 2 million in extreme hunger and deprivation.
Allies hope these recognitions pressure Israel to:
End the war in Gaza,
Halt new settlements in the occupied West Bank,
Recommit to a genuine peace process.
The Resolution
These events follow the September 12, 2025, UN General Assembly resolution dubbed the “New York Declaration”, sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia.
It passed with: 142 in favour, 10 against, 10 abstaining.
It reaffirmed support for the two-state solution and endorsed a Palestinian state.
A Gift to Hamas?
The US and Israel vehemently opposed the New York Declaration and its endorsement of a two-state solution.
US Mission Counsellor Morgan Ortagus stated:
“Make no mistake, this resolution is a gift to Hamas.”
“It Is Our Land”
One day before the resolution passed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared there would be no Palestinian state.
On Sunday, September 21, 2025, the day the UK , Canada, Australia and Portugal recognised Palestine, the Israeli Prime Minister called the move “absurd”.
Sole Outlier
The recent developments leave the US as the only major country refusing to recognize the State of Palestine.
It was also the only major power to vote against the recent UN resolution endorsing the two-state solution.
Further, the US has repeatedly used its veto power—over half a dozen times in two years—to:
Block resolutions endorsing the two-state framework,
Prevent Palestine’s full UN membership,
Shield Israel from international censure.
Situation on the Ground
Let’s now examine conditions in the three core regions of a potential Palestinian state: East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip.
East Jerusalem: Captured by Israel in the 1967 war and later declared its “undivided capital”. Palestinians claim East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state.
The West Bank: Home to 3 million Palestinians, this area—part of the Occupied Palestinian Territories—is under partial control of the Palestinian Authority, while 700,000 Israeli settlers live in about 160 settlements. Israel now plans to double this settler population.
The Gaza Strip: Now in its third year of brutal war with Israel. Over 65,000 dead, widespread famine, and near-total devastation. On November 18, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire—14 of 15 members supported it.
Will Palestine Ever Become a State?
Despite growing international recognition, the existential question remains: Will Palestine ever become a state?
The answer: Maybe, maybe not. It depends on geopolitical shifts.
But first: What defines a state?
Statehood: The Montevideo Criteria
Under the 1933 Montevideo Convention, a state must have:
A defined territory
A permanent population
A functioning government
The capacity to enter into relations with other states
Is Palestine a State?
Let’s assess:
Defined Territory: The borders are disputed. Recognised basis include: 1947 UN Partition Plan, 1949 Green Line (pre-1967), and Post-1967 occupation boundaries.
Most nations recognise the pre-1967 borders, but Israel has annexed or controls most of these territories.
Permanent Population: Pre-war population of 7.4 million in Gaza, West Bank, and East Jerusalem. Global Palestinian population: ~15.2 million.
Government: The Palestinian Authority (PA) governs parts of the West Bank. Hamas controls Gaza.
Foreign Relations: The PLO declared independence in 1988. Palestine is recognized by 151 countries (soon 157) and is a member of Unesco, International Criminal Court, and International Court of Justice.
Conclusion: A True State Unlikely
Despite growing recognition, will Palestine truly become a state?
As of now: Unlikely—unless major changes occur. Israel says “no”. Trump agrees. The US blocks.
Unless the tide turns dramatically, Palestine may remain—an idea, not a state—lost in an 80-year-old political quagmire, no matter how loud the voices of the world grow.
The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.