Pakistan stuck between the jihadi devil and the deep mass protest sea

Things are happening in Pakistan. Not just the usual bombings, suicide attacks, or shootings, but probably what is the biggest political rally seen in recent years anywhere in South Asia. Consider that this is happening in a state ruled by the military, in a ‘virtual’ exercise, also unseen ever before in its sheer magnitude.

That the military has assumed to itself the role of judge, jury, and constitution is one part of what is causing this ‘do or die’ rally. With a fixed court and a pliant Parliament, the army is now in a position to do whatever it likes to Imran Khan. If the rule is not there, it can create it. Dangerous to all concerned, and they know it.

‘Kaptaan’ is in Charge

The scale of the protests by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters is immense. It seems like the whole of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has poured out, not to mention supporters from Sindh and Punjab, which is probably why Islamabad has been completely sealed off, with road, rail, and air connectivity stopped and a total internet shutdown.

The usual paraphernalia of containers blocking major roads is nothing new, but what is evident is that the crowds include the well-heeled, the middle class, and young people, all determined to get their leader free. Khan’s popularity is not just that ‘Kaptaan’ led a triumphant cricket team, but that he is relatively non-corrupt—an image that ironically was created for him by the army when they maligned Nawaz Sharif and the rest in the ‘Panamagate’ scandal.

There is also the inescapable fact that so far not a single case of corruption has been proven. There is that little matter of some two hundred and seventy thousand square yards of land that seems to have been bought for a pittance (some Rs 10 million according to PTI aides) from a property tycoon of dubious credentials for a university.

That is the  Al Qadir  case, which caused an alleged loss of some  $239 million  to the exchequer. That’s still peanuts if the allegations against Nawaz Sharif are true, and which runs into several billions. The point is that no one believes it. Kaptaan can do no wrong. That’s the logic of the crowds. Remember too that among these are retired army officers and their families, all of whom see Khan as the one leader they can respect.

And here’s another fact. Khan’s party broke a record in getting re-elected to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa twice in succession. In the first term in particular, they delivered in terms of administration, and what’s more, it increased its seats. That says something. Think instead of a Sindh, which has remained unchanged under more than a decade of Bhutto rule.

It’s not just about Khan

Now for the other side of the picture. For PTI office bearers and the powers that be — which could include a sizeable section of the serving army top and bottom echelons — the witch hunt against Imran Khan (given that there are more than a hundred cases against him, including blasphemy) is likely to succeed given two recent events. First was the passage of the 26th Amendment to the Constitution.

As the Dawn succinctly put it, it is legislation that  takes away  the Supreme Court’s suo motu powers, sets the chief justice term at three years, and empowers the prime minister to appoint the next CJP from among the three most senior SC judges. It also created a parallel bench to hear constitutional cases.

Second, the cherry on top, another act later extended the terms of the three chiefs from three to five years and then removed the retirement age.

It’s all quite unbelievable. The PTI raged, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur declaring a rollback of the constitutional amendment would be “do or die" and “We don’t care about the consequences." It said nothing about the army’s forever extensions, though. It’s well aware of those red lines. Besides, it was Imran himself who wanted to extend the service of his ISI chief. This is Pakistan.

Bibi takes a hand

Meanwhile, Bushra Bibi, the third wife of Khan, is leading the protests, which might not be the best thing for the PTI. Already her baffling remarks on a ‘conspiracy’ against Khan, apparently by the Saudis, have puzzled her own party people and caused the government to issue yet another FIR against her under Section 126 (committing depredation on territories of power at peace with Pakistan) of the  Pakistan Penal Code  and Article 29 of  The Telegraph Act, 1885 .

The government declared its own fears of a conspiracy against itself. As a policeman died in the protests, the need to find an off ramp becomes imperative. Protestors, particularly the youth, are prone to go off the rails and take Khan with it. Meanwhile, back channel talks are on, and as a first step, the party has been allotted a place to hold their sit-ins, though not the famous D-Chowk. Apparently Imran Khan had ‘agreed’ to this climbdown.

It seems both sides are willing to talk, though the end result is unclear. A release of Imran Khan is unlikely, given that the army would hardly like to do this at the point of a virtual gun. Some ‘give’ is likely in terms of withdrawal in some cases. After all, there are plenty to choose from. The constitutional amendment is already in place, with a new Chief Justice Yahya Afridi appointed by its clauses (which also dispensed with the seniority principle) already engaged in rolling back the powers that his courageous predecessor Justice Faez Isa had begun.

Meanwhile, the number of judges in the court has been increased from 16 to 34, which means the new man has little room for manoeuvre, if any. Whatever the end result, the end result is a nation—and possibly the army—divided along political lines.

Added to this is that the increase in retirement ages for the chiefs is likely to cause significant heartburn among senior-level officers. Army Chief Munir is likely to be cautious this time around. There’s too much at stake. Meanwhile, there are great plans for cooperation between Belarus and Pakistan as President Alexander Lukashenko arrives, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif firmly clasping his hand. That’s unsurprising. With the state Pakistan is in, most visitors would probably take to their heels.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.