Pakistan faces complete economic, military and diplomatic collapse

Pakistan is now facing a complete collapse, not just economic, but military and diplomatic as well. The state is sliding rapidly toward bankruptcy, its foreign reserves dwindling to precarious levels, inflation hovering above 30 per cent, and an IMF bailout hanging by a thread due to geopolitical tensions. Amid this financial chaos, Islamabad’s increasing dependence on Turkey for military support marks a new axis of desperation. It has been abandoned by its traditional supporters, both the US and the Middle East. With China distancing itself tactically and the Gulf countries tightening the purse strings, it is Turkey alone that continues to supply Pakistan militarily.

Recent sightings of Turkish transport aircraft delivering undisclosed supplies to Pakistan have intensified speculation of military cooperation at a time when Islamabad finds itself isolated and militarily exposed. Unconfirmed reports say that Pakistan will run out of ammunition for its artillery and anti-aircraft guns in a matter of days unless Turkey supplies it with more.

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This Turkish support comes at a significant strategic cost. Turkey has vociferously condemned India’s Operation Sindoor. In an official statement, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared: “The attack carried out by India last night (6 May) raises the risk of an all-out war. We condemn such provocative steps as well as attacks targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. We call on the parties to exercise common sense and refrain from unilateral actions. We expect that measures will be taken to reduce tensions in the region as soon as possible and that the necessary mechanisms, including in the field of counter-terrorism, will be put in place to prevent the recurrence of similar incidents.”

This statement underscores Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan during heightened military engagement and has to be addressed on the diplomatic front so that Pakistan does not escalate this conflict further. It has become a proxy for Turkish weapon and armament testing.

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In stark contrast, the Gulf countries—traditionally seen as financiers and diplomatic sympathisers of Pakistan—have refrained from public criticism of India. The foreign ministers of two prominent Gulf nations visited New Delhi quietly during the night following the strikes. However, in all public statements and briefings, there was neither condemnation nor criticism of India’s actions. This marked silence is interpreted in diplomatic circles as tacit acceptance, or at the very least, a decision not to side with Pakistan in a confrontation they see as increasingly self-inflicted. It also reflects growing strategic and economic ties between India and the Gulf states, driven by energy, trade, diaspora interests, and defence cooperation, which now outweigh Islamabad’s traditional leverage.

There is now a clear case for India to exert coordinated diplomatic and economic pressure on Ankara. This would include revoking bilaterals, cancelling the code-share agreement between IndiGo and Turkish Airlines, and encouraging Indian tourists, who form a significant revenue source for Turkey’s tourism economy, to cancel travel in the spirit of “Operation Sindoor”. A sustained boycott by Indian travellers and policy rollback by Indian authorities would be an effective non-military deterrent.

On the battlefield, Pakistan has suffered a series of humiliations. Several Pakistani drones have been neutralised in recent days.
Compounding this military setback is the collapse of key elements of Pakistan’s air defence network. After India’s successful neutralisation of the Lahore Air Defence System (ADS), there has been little credible evidence of functioning ADS coverage in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, or other urban zones like Multan and Quetta. The fear of further strikes has led to the dispersal of sensitive air defence assets, reducing their operational efficacy. Pakistan is still using older Soviet-era ZU-23-2 and Chinese-made Type-85 anti-aircraft guns—systems that are no match for modern stand-off weaponry and electronic warfare. Ammunition stocks for these weapons are low, and the supply chain, traditionally dependent on China, is under strain.

The strategic situation worsens when we examine Pakistan’s maritime vulnerability. India’s naval doctrine has long identified Karachi as a soft underbelly. Due to insurance risks and port safety concerns, Maersk and MSC reportedly prioritise transshipment via Dubai and Colombo instead of direct berthing at Karachi. Many shipping firms have also begun rerouting their South Asian freight to emerging Indian ports, particularly the Vizhinjam deepwater port in Kerala.

This shift can benefit the Vizhinjam port strategically and commercially. As Pakistan’s western maritime gateway falters, Vizhinjam offers a stable, well-equipped alternative just off key international shipping lanes. It is designed to handle large mother vessels, reducing reliance on transshipment hubs like Colombo or Singapore.

What is becoming increasingly clear is that Pakistan’s strategic depth is eroding across land, air and sea. The economic collapse, military degradation, and dependence on a waning power like Turkey signal the decoupling of Islamabad from the broader global order. This opens a unique window for India, not just for defence posturing but for long-term realignment of trade, diplomacy, and regional influence.

K Yatish Rajawat is a public policy researcher and works at the Gurgaon-based think and do tank Centre for Innovation in Public Policy (CIPP). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.