Pahalgam attack: Pakistan’s latest attempt to instigate instability

The TRF (The Resistance Front), an offshoot of the LeT, claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack that resulted in 26 dead and many wounded, blaming it on the government’s domicile policies. This was just an excuse. The true intent was to instigate religious riots within India, compelling the state to respond with force. Thus, they targeted victims based on religion.

Pakistan’s leaders will be expecting a strong Indian retaliation, hoping it will bind their nation, split politically apart, and also divert minds from their failures in Balochistan.

The attack was part of the belief within Pakistan’s strategic circles that a destabilised India adds to their security. Another Pakistani theory is that the road to peace in Balochistan flows through a turbulent Kashmir. They have been accusing India of supporting the Baloch fighters.

More from Opinion

Sergio Gor’s senate hearing signals the future of Indo-American ties How Trump’s ‘War on Drugs’ buildup against Venezuela has a hidden agenda

For Pakistan, instability in India is easiest by exploiting its social fault lines. Their nuclear threat, which they believed would restrict India’s military options, has been debunked in recent years.

Pakistan leaders also assume that they represent the voice of Muslims across the world. Their claim on Kashmir is only based on religion. Hence, over the decades, Pakistan attempted to push Kashmiris to revolt, backed by infiltrated terrorists, against the Indian state.

The Pakistan army chief, Gen Asim Munir, recently commented that Kashmir is their ‘jugular vein.’ They had historically supported separatists in Kashmir, through Hawala funding, fermenting stone pelting, hartals, bandhs and violence, thereby impacting tourism, the state’s main revenue earner, hoping to bring the state’s economy to its knees. However, it failed.

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

How army remains Pakistan’s biggest business house

60 years on, why 1965 India–Pakistan war still matters

Simultaneously, it has waded into every subject, even remotely connected to religion within India, desperate to split India based on religion and instigate riots, resulting in global criticism. Religion, anti-India rhetoric and Kashmir are subjects that divert the minds of starving, unemployed and uneducated Pakistani youth. By playing the India card, the youth get an opportunity to vent anger and forget their daily sufferings.

Pakistan’s intent was evident when its foreign ministry commented upon the Waqf Amendment Bill, a subject it had no connection to. It hoped to instigate nationwide protests against the bill, however, protests only happened in West Bengal. Its Foreign Office spokesman, Shafqat Ali Khan, mentioned, ‘Particularly the Act usurps property rights of the Muslim community, and could potentially dispossess them of several mosques, shrines and other holy places.’ This was far from true but it was intended to instigate protests.

India retaliated by rejecting Pakistan’s comments with the spokesperson mentioning, ‘Pakistan has no locus standi to comment on a matter that is internal to India.’ This is not the first time that Pakistan has commented on India’s internal matters.

Imran Khan, addressing the first Global Refugee Forum, mentioned on CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019), ‘We in Pakistan are not just worried that there’ll be a refugee crisis; we are worried that this could lead to a conflict. A conflict between two nuclear-armed countries.’ Pakistan’s national assembly even passed a resolution condemning CAA.

Logically, Pakistan had no reason to comment as the bill grants citizenship to religious minorities of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, who had to flee their homeland facing persecution. However, backed by Pakistan, CAA protests turned violent in places. Violence was even ongoing during the state visit of the then US President, Donald Trump.

Pakistan’s then foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, jumped into the Hijab controversy of Karnataka in 2022. He mentioned, ‘To deny anyone this fundamental right (education) and terrorise them for wearing a hijab is absolutely oppressive.’ India hit back, as was expected. Islamabad went as far as to summon the Indian chargé d’affaires to ‘convey their grave concern over alleged religious intolerance.’ Pakistan had attempted to instigate unrest, thereby lowering India’s global standing. It failed.

Pakistan dramatised the abrogation of Article 370, despite the article having no role in the ongoing Indo-Pak dispute. The article was included in the constitution in 1954, while UNSC resolutions on Kashmir were of 1948. Further, the Shimla agreement and Lahore declaration had made the dispute bilateral, overriding UNSC resolutions. Pakistan blocked trade, withdrew High Commissioners and linked everything with the restoration of the article.

Imran Khan, then the PM, went so far as to threaten a catastrophe over the abrogation of Article 370. He termed India an ‘oppressor and aggressor.’ Pakistan had hoped that its screams and internal protests would instigate violence in Kashmir. Nothing happened. Kashmir remained peaceful and a lot changed.

It had also hoped that the world would join hands in forcing the Indian government to pull back from the abrogation, giving them victory. There was global silence. Today, Pakistan, aware that it must take the first step in restoring diplomatic ties, fears doing so, as it would admit a failed strategy.

To add heft in its attempt to instigate violence in India, Pakistan began partnering with SFJ (Sikhs for Justice), a Khalistan seeking organisation. SFJ members joined Pakistan supporters in the UK and the US in anti-India protests. SFJ also provided social media backing during the farmers’ agitation, including involving paid influencers, Mia Khalifa, Rihanna, Malala and Greta Thunberg. It is a fact that Pakistan is funding SFJ. With the Trump administration, Khalistan is taking a backseat in the US.

What is causing pain to Pakistan is that while its global stature recedes, a confident and strong India emerges. The world ignores Pakistan’s cries while backing Indian actions. While India grows economically and militarily, Pakistan continues to be termed as the world’s terror capital, recording the second-highest terrorist attacks globally in 2024. The Balakot strike created fear within the Pakistan military hierarchy. Even today, post Pahalgam, Pakistan is aware that India will react, but is unaware how.

The only option left for Pakistan to continue exploiting its strategy of enhancing instability is to play on India’s social fault lines using social media, hoping it will lead to violence and a strong state reaction. The Indian government, aware that most internal upheavals are funded and guided from abroad, handles them maturely, thereby frustrating Pakistan’s plans.

Currently, instability is growing in Pakistan with all its outlying provinces, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and POK restless and angry. It’s time India paid Pakistan back in the same coin by exploiting its fault lines.

The author is a former Indian Army officer, strategic analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.