Op Sindoor proved India’s aerial dominance, a next-gen air force is a must to retain it

In the customary annual press interaction ahead of the 93rd Air Force Day, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh dwelt at length on the very successful “Operation Sindoor”, and the capability-building plans of the Indian Air Force (IAF). In a very calm, cool and collected way, the Air Chief explained how IAF had destroyed about a dozen Pakistani aircraft, including the American-supplied F-16s, the Chinese-made JF-17s, and high-value air assets (HVAA) like the C-130 transport aircraft and AEW&C of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

The large numbers of airfield assets, runways, aircraft hangars, radars, air defence systems and command centres destroyed on the ground had made at least a 20 per cent dent in PAF’s fighting capability. The record-breaking over-300-kilometre range aerial kill by the S-400 Triumf air defence system that knocked off an HVAA was what he described as the “highlight of the year”. While India had shown “before and after” pictures to the whole world, the losses were also acknowledged by many in Pakistan.

The Chief of Air Staff (CAS) termed Pakistani claims of shooting down Indian aircraft and hitting ground targets as “Manohar Kahaniyan” (fascinating fictive imaginative tales). “Let them show a single picture," he asked. Most importantly, he highlighted Indian leadership’s ability and management of conflict termination after the initial political and military aims had been sufficiently achieved. The IAF had showcased its ability to project power and defend India’s borders and airspace. It forced Pakistan to seek an immediate ceasefire, indicating the IAF’s deterrence ability.

The Air Chief then concentrated on the need and plans to build India’s military aviation capability.

Air Power Dominates Conflicts

Aerospace has become the most preferred means of prosecution of war and has seen the fastest evolution since WWII. All the recent wars across the globe have been dominated by the use of air power. Cheaper drones, air defence systems, and innovative exploitation of platforms and weapon systems have been seen. While aerial technologies are reshaping the future of wars, manned fighters are here to stay for long. Exploitation of manned-unmanned teaming will be the future.

The continued need for air and space superiority to allow favourable prosecution of air, surface and subsurface operations remains underscored. The combat aircraft have become more agile with characteristics of high speed and manoeuvrability, delivered with greater efficiency. Aerial platforms have become stealthier and support low-observable sensors that can see and sense farther. Aircraft can carry and deliver very long-range air-to-air and air-to-surface precision weapons. The aircraft’s ability to operate in an intense electronic warfare environment has increased.

Nearly 50 per cent of all forms of platform-related expenditure since WWII have been on fighter aircraft. Ships, submarines and tanks were distant behind. Integrated sensors across platforms coupled with secure data-linked communications have allowed the system-of-systems approach. Artificial Intelligence (AI) supports speedier decision-making and weapon and platform autonomy. Cyber and electronic warfare are seeing a greater role. The Air Chief talked about how the IAF was being made future-ready.

IAF’s Future Fighter Requirements

The next generation aircraft have to be designed for a highly contested and well-defended environment. The combat engagements will be at very long ranges. Platforms must have the ability to “see first, shoot first, and destroy first”. They will be multi-role and carry weapons for both air-to-air and air-to-surface targets. Aircraft should be able to act as motherships or controllers in a MUM-T mix. Aircraft will be closely integrated and securely data-linked with other platforms in space, in the air and on the surface.

Aircraft will require all-hemisphere situational awareness, allowing comprehensive threat assessments and response options. Futuristic avionics will include agile advanced electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and passive data-linked sensors. Stealth will be built into the airframe design through advanced shaping. The conformal weapon bays will carry very long-range weapons. Weapons will have an increased degree of post-launch autonomy. Enhanced on-board power generation will support powerful electronic warfare systems and directed energy weapons (DEW).

With the winding down of the MiG-21 fleet, the IAF is now down to 28 fighter squadrons vis-à-vis the authorised 42.5. It still awaits the first LCA Mk1A stage. The IAF Chief said that of the 180 LCA Mk1A, if there are further delays, the order may be switched to the more capable Mk2. LCA Mk2 should endeavour to be closer to Rafale and needs to be accelerated. India will have to push the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), and as it grows, imbibe some 6th-generation technologies. It must quickly finalise the private partner for the AMCA programme. While India pushes its indigenous fighters to make up for the large shortfall, IAF should acquire 114 latest variants of Rafale “make-in-India” fighters to maintain continuity and avoid adding another fleet. It may also add a few squadrons of Russian Su-57 5th-generation aircraft with transfer of technology as an interim measure.

Advanced Air Defence Systems

Long-range air defence systems will keep the enemy air at a distance and achieve air denial, as was seen during “Op Sindoor”. The air chief hinted about additional S-400 orders. The indigenous S-400 class “Kusha” AD system needs to be accelerated. The advanced Akash-NG with an air-breathing solid ramjet engine and an increased range of 70–80 km needs hastening. The Bhargavastra multi-layer micro-missile Anti-Drone/Counter-Unmanned Aerial System (C-UAS) designed and developed by the Indian private sector company Solar Defence and Aerospace Limited needs early induction.

Transport, Helicopter and Trainers

While IAF has an adequate transport aircraft fleet, it is time for India to develop its own cargo aircraft and regional jet. Time to unfold a roadmap for Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA). Similarly, India has a decent-sized helicopter fleet, but Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) needs to resolve design and production quality issues of ALH variants. Development of the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) needs to be hastened. If the programme remains mired in delays, we may reconsider Ka-226T. Also the Indian Multirole Helicopter (IMRH) needs a serious push. The Air Chief highlighted the urgency of the basic trainer HAL HTT-40. It is hoped that HAL delivers the first aircraft by January 2026, with another 11 to be delivered by March 2026 as promised.

Force Multipliers

For the continental size of the country, the number of Flight Refuelling Aircraft (FRA) and Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) are highly inadequate. While the roadmap has been spelt out, the pace has to be accelerated for both Netra Mk1 and Netra Mk2. Satellite-based ISR, navigation and targeting capabilities have to go up. NavIC must be operationalised quickly. Need to develop jet-powered stealth HALE UAVs for ISTAR, EW & armed strike missions.

Aerial Weapons and Self-Protection

Future missiles will have long-range detection, cruise farther and have high no-escape zones. Major countries are pushing advanced hypersonic weapon programmes. Future weapons will shoot down incoming air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles. New turret systems will allow high-energy lasers to engage enemy aircraft and missiles. Stand-alone high-energy laser weapon pods are being designed. These could daze or burn electronics of other airborne platforms.

Hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs) have already been used in combat in Ukraine. Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs) and HCMs will bring game-changing vulnerabilities to strategic targets and large ships and aircraft carriers. Large platforms like the AEW&C and FRA will be kept farther away from the tactical area by long-range missiles. Meanwhile, it’s time to explore counter-hypersonic solutions.

India’s Astra Mk-1 (110 km) AAM is operational. Mk-2 (160 km) is under induction. The very long range (VLRAAM) Mk-3 will have a range over 300 km. The air-launched BrahMos missile (500 km) has been integrated on the Su-30MKI. Longer-range variants are evolving. The hypersonic version, BrahMos-II, is under testing. Future variants will have ranges up to 1,500 km. India needs to accelerate its weapons development. IAF must build larger inventories.

Drones, Loitering Munitions and Counters

Drones and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) are already flying in large numbers. Optionally manned aircraft are evolving. The next generation UAS will be able to take on ISR, surface strike, air defence, aerial refuelling, and air delivery. Swarms could overwhelm defences by sheer numbers. Aerial drone swarms have been repeatedly demonstrated, including by Indian manufacturers. Loitering munition inventories are going up.

Drone counters using small arms, electro-optical weapons (laser), data-link jamming, and electronic or cyberattacks are evolving. A drone swarm may be engaged by a counter-drone swarm. MUM-T will exploit the advantage of the human in the loop with the strength of numbers to take on well-defended target systems. A large number of Indian companies are engaged in UAS and drone manufacture. HAL is working on MUM-T. The same needs acceleration.

Airborne Radars in Heavy ECM Environments

Modern AESA radars will be required to operate in heavy Electronic Counter-Measures (ECM) environments. Technologies are evolving to reduce the size, weight, power consumption, and cost of AESA radars. The beamforming and steering agility will permit better tracking of very fast supersonic cruise missiles and aircraft. AESA radars are also used in missiles for the same reason. To reduce spectrum congestion, Gallium Nitride (GaN) power transistors can operate at higher power levels and higher frequencies more efficiently. Future radars will have lower power sectorial emissions and, thus, will be electronically stealthy. India’s Uttam AESA radar is evolving well but is awaited. Finally, India will have indigenous radar even for the Su-30 MKI.

Passive Stealthy Sensors

Passive systems like the Infra-Red Search and Track (IRST) do not radiate; as such, they don’t expose their own location and are considered counter-stealth technology. But IR systems are susceptible to weather and atmospheric phenomena. The detection range (100 km) is currently much lower than radar. Future sensors will be more sensitive with greater range and use advanced image processing technology. New generation dual-band IR detectors are based on Quantum Wall IR Photo-detectors (QWIP). Multiple Aperture IR (MAIR) will mean many IR sensors around the aircraft for all-hemisphere detection. It will also act as a missile warner. India has a long way to go on passive sensors, albeit some work is going on.

Aircraft Diagnostics and Repair

High mission rates are possible through better online aircraft health monitoring. Aircraft systems are connected in real-time to the fleet databases through secure communications. Advanced data processing incorporates fault diagnostics using AI. Technology allows predictive maintenance solutions. Online real-time monitoring reduces turnaround maintenance time and improves aircraft utilisation rate. It could, in the long run, reduce the ‘life cycle cost’.

With greater usage of composite, self-healing materials, quicker repairs have become possible and save time. Robots will support aircraft inspection and maintenance tasks. Newer systems have redundancies and are designed for low mean time between failures (MBTF) to ensure maximum airtime and minimum logistics requirements. Indian companies are working on this.

Aero-engine Technology

Future engine technologies must support a reduced development cycle, reduce engine weight, improve engine propulsive efficiency and better specific fuel consumption (SFC), improve reliability and maintainability, and reduce life cycle costs. New materials will be lighter and withstand higher temperatures. Fully computer-controlled “smart engines” and the use of magnetic bearings will also improve engine operations. Additive 3D manufacture will reduce production and maintenance time and cost. Aero-engines will be versatile, flight-phase adaptive, and more fuel-efficient and feature thrust-vectoring and in-built super-cruise and allow longer ranges and higher performance. The future will see increased use of biofuels and electrical power for aircraft propulsion and various subsystems.

Developing an indigenous aero-engine is a core area for India’s ‘Atmanirbharta’ (Self-Reliance) in defence. There are a handful of global manufacturers who do not easily part with technology. Joint ventures (JV) are the best option forward for India. It must exploit a large domestic market. DRDO’s Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE) is now likely to join Safran of France to develop an indigenous fighter engine of the 120 kN class. India will have the intellectual property rights (IPR). Small engines are also required for cruise missiles and UAVs. India must also invest in electric and hybrid engines.

Secure Communications and Electronic Technologies

5G and 6G telecommunications networks will be crucial for aviation design and on-board data handling. They will also be crucial for satellite and ground-based communications. This will also involve the beaming of millimetre-length microwaves at the earth from a large number of new communication satellites. These speeds will also be required for cyber security. Imported electronic hardware of the aircraft could be a high risk with embedded chips. Indigenisation is very important.

Similarly, the electronic warfare equipment has to be home-developed. Microchips are required for aircraft, automation, and electro-optical systems, including the weapon sensors. India has decided to invest large sums in their manufacture. 5G will also be required for network-centred warfare. Secure, jam-proof data links will be required for UAS and drone swarms. Developing and operationalising Jam-resistant Software Defined Radios (SDR) across all fleets is an imperative. BEL must accelerate the SDR programme of IAF.

Data Fusion, Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Security

The demand for streaming high-quality data requires bandwidth, which involves innovating sensor/processing systems. The data fusion will be deepened by integrating sensors on different platforms, including satellites and drones. Network-centric payload processing units enable on-board data fusion prior to sending to digital links. AI will support decision-making, aircraft systems management, and greater autonomy. The sixth-generation avionics will have to be resilient to jamming and have the capability to jam adversary systems.

Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)

IAF has to prepare for MDO, involving integrated actions across multiple war-fighting domains, including land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace, to achieve information and decision superiority and synchronised effects by exploiting the interdependencies between these domains. The approach leverages advanced technology and innovative strategies to create a unified and synergistic effect, countering complex threats and achieving strategic objectives more efficiently.

Advanced technologies like AI, machine learning, and cloud computing are crucial for enabling MDO by facilitating data processing, platform integration, and rapid decision-making. MDO aims to outpace the adversary by operating at a faster tempo and manipulating key control parameters, creating uncertainty and disrupting the enemy’s decision-making processes. MDO allows decisive outcomes with less effort.

A Whole-of-Nation Approach for the IAF to be Future Ready

Future air war will increasingly be between stealth platforms, uninhabited systems, and loitering munitions. Air combat engagements will be long distance. Precision in degraded electronic environments will be crucial. Space has become a war-fighting domain, an assessment that calls for doctrinal changes and the ability to intervene there more quickly. Hastening the establishment of secure tri-service data links for joint operations is important.

Atmanirbharta in aerospace and defence is now an existential strategic necessity. Integrating the private sector more closely must be accelerated. India must invest much more in R&D. The Indian economy must continue to grow at around 8-10 per cent for adequate funds to be available for defence. Keeping in view the global average and India’s threat perception, at least 2.5 per cent of GDP should be spent on defence, up from the current 1.9 per cent.

HAL must concentrate on being an integrator and not so much a manufacturer. Workforce productivity must go up to international standards. Product and sub-component quality assurance needs to improve much more. Both DRDO and HAL make overoptimistic projections. Timelines have always slipped very considerably. HAL must be freed from the MoD’s bureaucratic control. The selection and procurement cycle for aerial platforms must be cut from the existing 6–8 years to 2–3 years.

Total self-reliance by 2047 is an ambitious but desirable target. Needs clear directions and a whole-of-nation approach. Identify some national programmes such as the critical minerals and advanced alloys, AMCA, the MBT, Hypersonic, DEW, Electronic Warfare, AI and Robotics and put them under a specially selected CEO to drive as a national mission. Aviation systems require high capital expenditure; the government will have to back these. Need to support Indian MSMEs in navigating complex regulations and certifications processes.

Airpower reforms are essential for India’s strategic rise. The IAF must continue to evolve as the nation’s cutting-edge force, driven by indigenous capability, stakeholder collaboration and innovation. New technologies require doctrinal and tactical changes. The time to act is now.

The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.