Only a reckless and ignorant punter would bet against Narendra Modi running a coalition government

The 2024 election results have delivered a little bit of something for everyone. Analysts, especially, are enjoying a field day with 20/20 hindsight throwing up all sorts of confirmation biases. A torrent of self-projection, pet peeves and wish-casting in the name of analysis is on display.

We are being told that BJP has been punished for pushing Hindutva agenda, dehumanizing Muslims, not pushing Hindutva enough, failing to create jobs, income inequality, local dissent, misreading caste equations, arrogance, laziness, complacency, infighting, wrong candidate selection, sabotage – and if the commentators are based abroad, then the results are apparently a chastisement, and a rebuke of Narendra Modi for aiding India’s “democratic backsliding” and also against his “excessive cult of personality” (Fareed Zakaria in Washington Post).

Which is amusing, when you consider that voters in Uttar Pradesh were apparently disapproving of Modi’s “cult of personality”, but voters next door in Madhya Pradesh, where BJP swept the field with 29 seats out of 29, had no such issues.

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In short, the results are open to interpretation, and we have been treated to some really colourful ones. One aspect of the results, however, is indisputable. No one is sure whether the Modi government would be able to successfully run a coalition government. This has become the debate of the day. Even those within the BJP ecosystem suffer from this scepticism.

Take, for instance, thinker, commentator and former Rajya Sabha MP Swapan Dasgupta who has contested Assembly elections in West Bengal on a BJP ticket in 2021. Writing in Open magazine, Dasgupta observes, “Most important, it is my feeling that Modi won’t like a situation where he is constrained by coalition pressures. If such pressures are real and lead to the government losing its elbow room, the prime minister may like to engineer a situation where he can call a premature election on terms of his own choosing. If, however, being in a coalition isn’t an impediment—as it wasn’t for PV Narasimha Rao and Vajpayee—it is more than likely that Modi will settle for a full five-year term.”

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Or, take the comments from RSS ideologue Ram Madhav, who writes in Indian Express, “The victory of the Narendra Modi-led NDA for the third time will be a parliamentary record. However, the situation calls for greater accommodation and responsible politics from both sides. Mahatma Gandhi is remembered for many things. But he was the first to introduce coalition politics in the pre-Independence era. His success lay in humility and civility, qualities that the Indian polity is in dire need of. Coalitions are great levellers. Hope we witness the restoration of those virtues in our polity in the coming years.”

Readers may be excused from interpreting this as a ‘message’ from the RSS to the BJP. There are reports and indications that all is not well between the two, and the reflection of it is evident in the election results.

Be that as it may, there is open scepticism even within the BJP ranks that Modi, who has so far ran full-majority state and Central governments (three stints as Gujarat chief minister and two as the prime minister) might be unable to cope with the uncertainties, vagaries and constraints of a coalition government that remains subject to internal pulls and pressures and requires a degree of compromise that doesn’t agree with Modi’s personality.

It is believed that Modi is too much of his own man, too ideological and inflexible to cope with sustained bargaining from allies and is not a consensus-builder in the mould of Atal Bihari Vajpayee who managed a full term with far-weaker numbers. This is not just an analytical position.

The Opposition, too, evidently believes that they are in with a chance because the NDA government led by BJP, which is dependent on TDP and JDU to form a government, will collapse sooner rather than later. Following their post-poll meeting this week, Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge said “We will take appropriate steps at the appropriate time to realise the people’s desire not to be ruled by the BJP government.”

Translation: the Opposition lacks the numbers, and is therefore adopting a wait-and-watch approach to capitalize on what they believe would be inevitable turbulence within the ruling NDA coalition.

This assumption, that Modi would be unable to run a coalition government, needs to be examined threadbare. It is my contention that despite not enjoying absolute majority, the Modi-led BJP government, in alliance with TDP and JDU is likely to not only complete its full term but will also be able to implement BJP’s core agendas.

Certainty in politics is the trait of fools, but past records and available evidence point to the fact that fears over Modi’s inability to compromise and build consensus are overblown and inaccurate. In fact, Modi’s journey as a politician and his career from an RSS pracharak, BJP karyakarta to leadership roles as chief minister and prime minister is testament to his ability to strike agreements, build rapport and deliver on promises while working within the constraints of his respective positions.

Even a prime minister who enjoys brute majority in the Lower House cannot always have his way. Modi has had to withdraw three farm laws in 2021 facing sustained farmer protests from just one corner of India – Punjab and Haryana. BJP had 303 MPs.

It may be argued that coalitions require a different form of give-and-take, and sometimes the situation descends into arm-twisting. Interestingly, if we apply the lessons learnt from the UPA 1 and 2 eras, when prime minister Manmohan Singh was held at ransom over the US-India civil nuclear deal by the Left Front, one must remember that Congress, with 145 seats, led the UPA-1 which had only 218 seats in a 544-seat Parliament, and was reliant on outside support from the Left Front (59), the Samajwadi Party (39) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (19) that had lent outside support.

Quite evident that such a coalition is inherently unstable, weak and volatile. In contrast, the BJP alone has won 240 seats (needing just 32 for the magic number) in the 543-seat Parliament, and would be running a “pre-poll” NDA alliance whose main constituents, apart from the BJP, are TDP (16) and JDU (12). Worth noting that none of these allies can put the government in trouble is they walk out on their own. Modi 3.0 would be in danger only if TDP and JDU both decide to pull the rug.

Number-wise, therefore, the BJP-led NDA “pre-poll” alliance—that has already submitted letters of support for Modi to lead for the next five years—appear a lot more secure.

But it’s not always about numbers. What about the equation between the leaders? The assumption of instability also rests on the fact that JDU leader Nitish Kumar, the chief minister of Bihar, is known for making about-turns. It’s reasonable to expect him to ditch BJP again, if given the right incentives. Except politics is not so simple.

On Saturday, JDU claimed that it had received and turned down the offer of prime minister’s post for Kumar by the Opposition INDI Alliance. For all his ‘reputation’ as ‘paltu-ram’, Kumar is at a stage in his political career when he would be thinking of leaving a legacy. His best chance of doing so is to be part of a stable coalition at the Centre that may enable him to wrest some economic advantages for Bihar, and cement his legacy as the state’s ‘sushashan babu’ (able administrator) – a moniker which needs another coat of varnish.

N Chandrabau Naidu, who brings a technocratic attitude to administration, wants to develop Amaravati as the ‘people’s capital’ and transform Visakhapatnam into Andhra Pradesh’s financial capital. Reports indicate property prices have started shooting up in Amaravati in anticipation of investments in real estate. Naidu needs money, perhaps even a “special package” for the state, he also needs to fend off a tough opposition in YSR Congress Party.

His best bet, therefore, would be in sticking to the NDA Alliance and remaining a part of the ruling coalition. Reports emerging on Saturday indicate Naidu’s TDP may get as many as four berths in the upcoming Union Cabinet. The point I am making is that the two most important non-BJP constituents of the NDA Alliance have their own reasons to stick together, and it lends stability to the government.

Finally, it is also a baseless assumption that Modi can’t remodel himself according to circumstances. It may be argued that it is among one the core competencies of Modi, who is a generational talent among politicians and towers over his peers. Instructive, that soon after the results, at the NDA Parliamentary Party meeting, the PM-designate said: “I assure the people of the country that the majority they gave us to run the government, it will be our effort that we will strive towards consensus and leave no stone unturned towards taking the country forward.”

The word ‘consensus’, used by Modi, is significant. It indicates a full awareness of the situation at hand and a mental preparation for the changed circumstances in the road ahead. Incidentally, former Prasar Bharati CEO and writer Shashi Shekhar Vempati, in a post on X (formerly Twitter) points out that Modi had written his first book in 1978 on his experiences during the Emergency. As a 25-26 year old young activist, Modi’s chronicling of events reveal his ability to form and work with coalitions and alliances, and how the socialists and cultural nationalists came together to push back against then prime minister Indira Gandhi’s attempts to undermine democracy in India.

It would only be a reckless and ignorant punter who may bet against the prime minister successfully completing his third stint at the helm, albeit one that requires a bit more tactfulness, negotiation skills and conciliation.

The author is Deputy Executive Editor, Firstpost. He tweets: @sreemoytalukdar. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.