New Game in Afghanistan: Trump 2.0 signals pragmatic shift on Taliban

In a remarkable turn of events, the US appears to be recalibrating its posture toward the Taliban, indicating a newfound interest in engaging with the regime that now rules Afghanistan. An American delegation visited Kabul recently on March 20, 2025, led by Adam Boehler, the US Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, and Zalmay Khalilzad, former US envoy to Afghanistan, and met with top Taliban officials there.

This visit, along with reports of the US planning to reopen its embassy in Afghanistan, highlights Washington’s recognition of the rapidly evolving geopolitical dynamics, particularly China’s expanding strategic footprint in the region.

While initially most countries remained hesitant to engage with the Taliban and cautiously were following the developments there, China, driven by pragmatic foreign policy and strategic calculations, was one of the first governments to engage directly with this regime.

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Beijing continues to host Afghan delegates, strengthen diplomatic ties, and extend its presence through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects and other strategic engagements. The expanding of China’s influence in Afghanistan has led Washington to reconsider its strategy, as it does not want its geostrategic rival, Beijing, to completely dominate the geopolitical landscape of Afghanistan. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 created a power vacuum that Beijing is now actively seeking to fill.

Today, China’s global ascent has reached a point where it can no longer be confined to, nor contained within, the Indo-Pacific alone. Strategies focused solely on limiting its influence in that region are proving inadequate. Its geopolitical influence today spans across every continent, encompassing the Western Hemisphere, Asia, Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, and key maritime domains.

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As a result, the US is contemplating a comprehensive, “globally integrated strategy” to challenge China’s expanding influence. Against this backdrop, countering China’s growing presence in Afghanistan also becomes increasingly significant, as Beijing rapidly deepens its strategic foothold there. Moreover, in a recent development, China granted Afghanistan 100 per cent tariff-free access to its markets, effective from December 1, 2024, enhancing Beijing’s strategic leverage in the region.

Beyond geopolitical competition with Beijing, terrorism is a key driver of Washington’s renewed focus on Afghanistan. With the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) still posing a threat, Washington is exploring avenues of cooperation with the Taliban in intelligence and counterterrorism operations.

Notably, the United States appears to be increasingly willing to engage the Taliban directly, bypassing Pakistan. Years of deception and double-crossing by Islamabad have significantly eroded American trust, necessitating a more pragmatic approach from the US.

Interestingly, the Taliban also want to engage directly and bilaterally with the US, having faced similar manipulation by Pakistan, which has historically used the group to further its own strategic objectives.

Moreover, media reports suggest that the US may resume operations at the Bagram Airbase, which was formerly central to America’s military operations in Afghanistan. Allegedly, a covert agreement has been reached between Washington and the Taliban, with the latter receiving certain concessions in return.

If true, this could indicate a growing level of strategic coordination between the Pentagon and the Taliban, potentially aimed at curbing not only China’s influence in the region but also Iran’s. Although the Taliban may not publicly support US activities against Iran, even limited cooperation could provide Washington the regional foothold it seeks.

Trump’s potential engagement with the Taliban is also driven by geoeconomic rationale. Afghanistan has huge quantities of critical mineral reserves, estimated at about 1.4 million metric tonnes, including vast reserves in Helmand’s Khanneshin carbonatite site. These critical rare earth minerals are essential for new technologies, clean energy transitions, and supply chain diversification. As China moves to dominate these sectors, the US desires access to these key strategic assets and resources to maintain its economic and technological competitiveness.

This geoeconomic imperative for engaging with the Taliban is also complemented by the transactional personality of Trump. Personalities like Donald Trump, who prioritise transactional diplomacy over a value-based approach, align well with the Taliban’s similarly pragmatic approach. Trump’s approach to international engagements, which focused on practical outcomes rather than moral arguments, makes such an engagement possible.

Furthermore, engaging with the Taliban could potentially moderate their behaviour as they seek international recognition and legitimacy, compelling them to adhere to global norms and standards. Engaging with the Taliban through a pragmatic and constructive approach that prioritises peace, stability, and regional security—rather than focusing on democratic liberal standards—would benefit Afghanistan, its neighbours, and the broader international community.

New Delhi has already taken a pragmatic stance by engaging with the Taliban, realising that engagement, not isolation, provides a path to influence and regional stability. In early 2025, New Delhi intensified its diplomatic outreach with the Taliban when Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai to explore deeper political and economic cooperation, including trade via Iran’s Chabahar Port.

The US appears to be headed in a similar direction, recognising that engagement is frequently a more effective tool than disengagement on the intricate chessboard of global affairs. Furthermore, US involvement in Afghanistan aligns with India’s broader strategic interests. Given both countries “comprehensive global strategic partnership”, they can collaborate on developmental projects and capacity-building initiatives in Afghanistan. Such cooperation would also help counterbalance China’s expanding influence in the region, and pursuing joint efforts in Afghanistan becomes even more important in light of China’s deep pockets.

In conclusion, the evolving geopolitical realities in Afghanistan are compelling key global actors, particularly the United States and India, to reassess their strategies toward the Taliban regime. The shifting dynamics—marked by China’s deepening influence, lingering terrorism threats, and competition over critical mineral resources—necessitate a pragmatic approach that prioritises engagement over isolation.

As Washington signals a willingness to re-engage with Kabul, potentially even through strategic concessions and cooperation, this recalibration reflects a broader move to safeguard long-term regional and global interests.

For India and the US, collaborating on developmental and strategic projects in Afghanistan can provide an opportunity to strengthen their strategic presence while simultaneously counterbalancing China’s expanding influence there.

Finally, constructive engagement with the Taliban—motivated by strategic necessity rather than ideological alignment—may pave the road for a more stable Afghanistan and a more balanced regional order.

Imran Khurshid is a visiting research fellow at the International Centre for Peace Studies, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.