Netanyahu afraid Gaza will be Israel’s Vietnam? He is dragging feet on full invasion while army twitches on trigger

It’s been a long since an Israeli counteroffensive military strike has been looming large after Hamas’ brutally mad attack on several Israeli kibbutz October 7. We are talking here about a nation that prides itself on its yearning for ‘never again’ kind of existential deterrence when it comes to Jewish lives. Yes, the ground ops have been “expanded” in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as the “second stage” in war on Hamas. But, a full-fledged invasion of Gaza to wipe out Hamas is yet on the mulling table. This despite the reported preparedness logistically. The fidgety fingers of the Israeli army are already more than raring to press the triggers of their state-of-the-art ‘Tavor’ rifles on the enemy. Haaretz reported that the army brass is pressuring Netanyahu to greenlight a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza to achieve the desired outcome from the war underway. But, Netanyahu is cagey, at best; indecisive, at worst. Experts say the ‘Vietnam Syndrome’ might have caught up with the prime minister who is walking a very tight rope, politically as well as personally. His ratings among Israelis have taken a massive hit, not to mention his recent gaffe of pinning the responsibility of the Hamas action inside Israel territory on the intelligence apparatus, which, of course, he recanted swiftly. Netanyahu’s hesitancy in launching the ground attack on Gaza stems from the massive loss of lives that the army brass have themselves cited as the cost of extirpating Hamas once and for all. The two, though, differ in their heart to take this loss. While the army is ready to suffer such loss of IDF soldiers, which will indubitably be unprecedented, but Netanyahu has not yet been able to bring himself around to this possibility. Historically too, Israel has erred on the side of caution when it has come to loss of IDF soldiers. While Israel has locked horns with Hamas in Gaza many a time—from Operation Cast Lead in 2009 to Operation Pillar of Strength and then Operation Protective Edge in 2018—it never went for an all-out offensive on any occasion in order to save and shield IDF lives. Another consideration, however, has informed this “mowing the grass” strategy—while Israel never went for a total war with Hamas, it kept eliminating the more radical leadership and created, from time to time, enough deterrence by show of force to stop Hamas from taking any strident step against Israeli settlements—which was based on the acceptance that eliminating Hamas would create a power vacuum to be filled in only by more extremist forces. But, the above mentioned consideration has been nullified by Hamas itself when it launched the October 7 attack, killing over 1400 Israeli civilians, women and children, in the most brutal animal ways. There is no doubt, especially after the IDF itself has acceded that a large number of soldiers will be lost in the asymmetrical war that Hamas will unleash as the Israeli forces try to go tunnel by tunnel counting at some 1300 to 1500 running for nearly 500km. The Hamas will use, as experts have opined, guerrilla tactics of moving in parties of two or three, using snipers, IEDs, booby-trapped doors and windows etc. They also have the advantage of operating on their home turf—Israel has not been into the Gaza or the tunnels underneath. The IDF will practically be going in blind even if the high-tech gadgets are considered since these are rendered confused by Gaza’s topography and the vast infrastructure that Hamas has built over the tunnel network. Figure this: the UN had earlier complained that Hamas had, in contravention to international law, had dug a tunnel under one of its hospitals. The paradox here is then: IDF will have to go in to clear Hamas tunnel after tunnel, practically fighting a hand-to-hand combat with Hamas terrorists as the cutting edge AI-powered Merkavas and Israel’s air power cannot be totally precise in hitting the tunnels from afar, either on ground or from up in the sky. But, going in will push the number of casualties that Netanyahu is yet not confident to absorb. It is, but another fact that all of Israel is behind a full-fledged attack. Netanyahu on the other hand is not very confident that the IDF has what it takes to achieve the goals that the government wants: to destroy Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities; to create a new security reality in Gaza. It is to be seen whether Netanyahu falls into the Vietnam Syndrome trap or no.