 "NATO@75: The military alliance grows in relevance, also in expectations")
US President Joe Biden hosted the annual 32-member North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) 2024 summit from July 9 to 11, 2024, amid continuing wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Yemen and political capriciousness in many member states. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to pitch for membership. Meanwhile, competition, edging towards confrontation with China, remains a concern and demands action. “Managing expectations” remains the theme.
NATO Historical Perspective
NATO (30 European and 2 North American), with headquarters in Brussels, was established in April 1949, immediately after World War II. It is a collective security system where independent member states agree to defend each other against attacks by third parties. Its initial aim was to defend the member countries from the expansion of Soviet Union, and curbing the spread of communism.
The Soviets responded by signing the Warsaw Pact in May 1955. It was formally the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. A ‘collective defence’ mechanism that included the Soviet Union and seven other Eastern Bloc socialist republics of Central and Eastern Europe. NATO and Warsaw Pact countries remained pitted against each other until the end of the Cold War in 1991. The Warsaw Pact was dissolved in 1991, and many of these countries later joined NATO.
The combined militaries of NATO members include around 3.5 million soldiers and personnel. Their combined military spending constituted around 55 per cent of the global military spend. In 2024, members have agreed to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least two percent of their GDP.
Having started in 1949 with just 12 members, it today has 32 members, with Sweden joining in March 2024. As many as 18 additional countries participate in NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Another nineteen countries are involved in institutionalised dialogue programmes with NATO. NATO currently recognises Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. The enlargement has led to tensions with Russia.
NATO’s post-Cold War interventions have included Bosnia (1992) and Yugoslavia (1999). Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, requiring member states to come to the aid of any member state subject to an armed attack, was invoked for the first and only time after the September 11 attacks, after which troops were deployed to Afghanistan under the NATO-led ISAF.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsPost-Russian Annexation of Crimea
In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea led to strong condemnation by all NATO members and was one of the seven times that Article 4, which calls for consultation among NATO members, has been invoked. Prior times included the Iraq War and the Syrian Civil War.
At the 2016 Warsaw summit, NATO countries agreed on the creation of NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, which deployed four multinational battalion-sized battle groups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Several NATO countries sent ground troops, warships, and fighter aircraft to reinforce the alliance’s eastern flank.
In March 2022, NATO member states agreed to establish four additional battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, and elements of the NATO Response Force were activated for the first time in NATO’s history. NATO today has around 40,000 troops deployed along its 2,500-kilometre-long eastern flank to deter Russian aggression.
Ukraine’s NATO Membership
Ukraine’s relationship with NATO began with the NATO-Ukraine Action Plan in 2002. In 2010, under President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine reaffirmed its non-aligned status and renounced its aspirations to join NATO. During the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Russia occupied Crimea and supported armed separatists in eastern Ukraine. As a result, in December 2014, Ukraine’s parliament voted to end its non-aligned status, and in 2019, it enshrined the goal of NATO membership in the Constitution. At the June 2021 Brussels Summit, NATO leaders affirmed that Ukraine would eventually join the Alliance and supported Ukraine’s right to self-determination without interference.
On November 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine would join NATO, and the deployment of missile defence systems or long-range missiles in Ukraine would be crossing the red line. The Russian Foreign Ministry drafted a treaty that would forbid Ukraine or any former Soviet state from ever joining NATO.
NATO responded by saying that the decision was up to Ukraine and NATO members and that “Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbours”. NATO offered to improve communications with Russia and discuss missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine’s borders.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022 after Russia proclaimed it had annexed the country’s southeast. Russia continues to politically oppose further expansion, seeing it as inconsistent with the informal understanding between the two sides.
NATO Defence Expenditure
Member states pay for NATO’s three common funds (the civil and military budgets and the security investment programme) based on a cost-sharing formula that includes per capita gross national income and other factors. In 2023–2024, the United States and Germany were the biggest contributors, with 16.2 per cent each.
Member states also pay for and maintain their own troops and equipment. They contribute to NATO operations and missions by committing troops and equipment on a voluntary basis. Since 2006, the goal has been for each country to spend at least 2 per cent of its gross domestic product on its own defence. This was reaffirmed more strongly in 2014. On June 17, 2024, prior to the 2024 Washington summit, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that a record 23 of 32 NATO member states were meeting their defence spending targets of 2 per cent of their country’s GDP.
NATO Partnerships with Other Countries
Additionally, NATO cooperates and discusses its activities with numerous other non-NATO members. The Mediterranean Dialogue was established in 1994 to coordinate in a similar way with Israel and countries in North Africa. The Istanbul Cooperation Initiative was announced in 2004 as a dialogue forum for the Middle East along the same lines as the Mediterranean Dialogue.
The four participants are also linked through the Gulf Cooperation Council. In June 2018, Qatar expressed a wish to join NATO, which was ruled out, saying that only additional European countries could join according to Article 10 of NATO’s founding treaty. Qatar and NATO had earlier signed a joint security agreement in January 2018.
Political dialogue with Japan began in 1990, and since then, the Alliance has gradually increased its contact with countries that do not form part of any of these cooperation initiatives. Australia and New Zealand, both contact countries, are also members of the AUS-CAN-NZ-UK-US strategic alliance, which maintains links with NATO. NATO is trying to “address the rise of China” by closely cooperating with Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea. Colombia is NATO’s latest partner and has access to the full range of cooperative activities offered; it is the first and only Latin American country to cooperate with NATO.
Political Dynamics at the NATO Summit 2024
The very strong NATO supporter, US President Joe Biden, has a political crisis on his plate after a disastrous debate two weeks ago. Many of his own party members don’t support his nomination for the forthcoming presidential election. And Donald Trump is a known NATO-sceptic. The shadow of Trump thus looms over the NATO summit. A Trump victory in November could mean a decline in US aid to Ukraine and pressure on Kyiv to bow to Russian demands in any peace talks. There is no country in NATO with the ability to replace a more distant United States, economically or militarily.
Further, French President Emmanuel Macron is facing political headwinds after parliamentary elections left a hung National Assembly. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Ukraine for a ‘quick ceasefire’ to ‘speed up’ peace negotiations, drawing a frosty response from Kyiv. Clearly, there are growing political distractions.
Support for Ukraine
Will the allies unanimously reaffirm increasing NATO’s military, political, and financial support for Ukraine? Will they openly state their support for Ukraine’s entry into NATO? Will there be a strong signal to Putin?
Clearly, Ukraine needs more modern equipment. The F 16s are on their way. More M1 Abrams tanks are required. More crucial are many more air defence batteries. The most important is the huge supply of ammunition for various systems, which is being expended very quickly.
This Ukraine Defence Contact Group has helped raise and direct around $100 billion in aid. A fool-proof organisation has to be in place to steer aid utilisation and dissemination. During Biden’s summit meeting with Zelenskyy, nearly two dozen allies and partners who have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine will be present. The Baltic States also want some NATO assurance, as they are worried they will be the next targets of Russia.
Key Topics on the Agenda
While NATO leaders will address a wide variety of issues facing the Alliance, Ukraine is unlikely to receive a formal invitation to join the NATO alliance in Washington. Yet NATO’s greater defence integration with Ukraine will be discussed. It is important to help Ukraine win, or else it will risk kicking off a US losing streak. Ukraine’s partners would link wartime aid to continued reform progress.
The Washington summit will focus on boosting allied defence and deterrence, which are “NATO’s core business.” This will be achieved by boosting forward defence, increasing high-readiness forces, modernising command and control, and transforming joint defence exercises. This would mean getting NATO ready to “fight now.” Over and above increased defence budgets, military capability building in air and missile defence, long-range fires, military mobility, cyber defence, and space-based capabilities will be discussed. Energy security will be on the table.
The US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group of 50 nations, is already manned by around 300 soldiers at the US Army’s European headquarters in Wiesbaden, Germany. It may be upgraded to a new NATO command in Wiesbaden, with nearly 700 allied personnel.
Irrespective of the final agreed language of the summit document, NATO allies may commit in Washington a five-year, $100 billion commitment of military aid to Ukraine. Some are suggesting around $40 billion annually.
The effort will be to make Ukraine a militarily capable partner with interoperability so that when the political moment comes, Ukraine’s forces can seamlessly integrate into NATO, just like Finland and Sweden before them. NATO proposes to encourage technology sharing to enhance interoperability between member countries.
The US has announced that it will provide $2 billion to Poland for the purchase of F-35s, Patriot systems, and Abrams tanks. This deal will further strengthen NATO’s Eastern Flank.
Strengthening NATO’s global partnerships, “especially in the Indo-Pacific”, will be discussed in detail. As much as 40 per cent of Europe’s trade passes through an increasingly contested South China Sea. On the other side, Russia’s war in Ukraine is being propped up by imports of North Korean munitions. China is sharing high-end technologies like semiconductors and other dual-use items. Last year, Russia imported 90 per cent of its microelectronics from China, used to produce missiles, tanks, and aircraft. China is also working to provide Russia with improved satellite capability and imagery.
NATO’s strategic goals have started mentioning the security challenges posed by China. Taiwan’s security and the North Korean nuclear issue will be discussed. NATO’s four established Indo-Pacific partners—Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea—have already become regular participants at allied summits. The security of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific is becoming closely connected. Increased Russia-North Korea military cooperation is bringing Seoul closer to Brussels too.
Many analysts believe that NATO members’ positions on China-related issues are still inconsistent. Developing a clearer strategy towards China will be an important discussion. There may be a joint statement on preserving freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific. But there may be no statements on meaningful deterrence in the South China Sea. NATO is still not ready to bring in countries in the Indo-Pacific region as members. Yet, the summit is expected to send a tougher signal than ever to China.
As Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have significantly increased ammunition production, and keeping supply chain issues in mind, there is a proposal to increase ammunition production by European nations. For Ukraine to win the war against Russia or even defend itself, NATO must make up for its previous shortcomings.
The leaders would have to evolve declaration language to show some progress from last year. Some want to mention that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to membership. NATO is increasingly considering the European and Indo-Pacific theatres as interdependent, especially considering the China factor. Lastly, projecting unity and unanimity remains the priority for the alliance after 75 years.
PM Narendra Modi’s visit to the G7 and a more recent one to Russia continues to maintain that all nations must respect the UN Charter, including territorial integrity and sovereignty. There is no solution on the battlefield. India must be noting every word being spoken at the NATO summit as it continues to practice “strategic autonomy”.
The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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