Myanmar in freefall: A democratic dawn moving towards a failed state

In the general elections held in November 2020, the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi—daughter of national hero Aung San—swept to power, humiliating the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). But her reign was short-lived. On February 1, 2021, the military staged a coup, detaining Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and other NLD leaders. General Min Aung Hlaing assumed control of the government.

Crisis Untold

Myanmar is in the throes of multiple crises—some sparked by the military takeover in 2021, others dating back to the Rohingya crisis of August 2017, and still others rooted in the nation’s complex historical legacy. These man-made disasters were further compounded by the deadly earthquake on March 28, 2025, and the devastating floods in July.

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The consequences have been immense:

• Internally Displaced: 3.6 million

• Refugees in Neighbouring Countries: 1.5 million

• People Needing Humanitarian Assistance: 19.9 million

• Children Needing Humanitarian Assistance: 6.3 million

The crisis is worsening rapidly amid raging armed conflict, widespread explosive ordnance and landmine contamination, climate shocks, disease outbreaks, and political and economic instability. Civilians face acute food insecurity, collapsing public services, and massive loss of livelihoods.

The Rohingya—along with other civilians caught between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army—continue to suffer. Subjected to forced recruitment, abuse, and violations of basic human rights, many are fleeing again, including to Bangladesh, which is already hosting more than a million Rohingya refugees.

From Bad to Worse

The UN-mandated Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), in its annual report released Tuesday, August 12, exposed “systematic torture” in military-run detention facilities—including beatings, electric shocks, strangulation, and gang rape—showing that atrocities are intensifying.

The evidence already supports proceedings at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice (ICJ), and will bolster the ICC Prosecutor’s November 2024 request for arrest warrants against Min Aung Hlaing and 24 others for crimes against humanity, including targeting the Rohingya.

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Meanwhile:

• WHO has verified 27 attacks on healthcare facilities this year

• Other groups report 140+ incidents

• Severe funding shortages (exacerbated by US aid cuts) have forced: suspension of services at 65 health facilities, shutdown of 38 mobile clinics, and reduced services at 28 more clinics

Once Upon a Time–A Province of India

Modern Burma’s history began with Britain annexing it through the Anglo-Burmese Wars:

First (1824–1826),

Second (1852–1853),

Third (1885).

After deposing King Thibaw Min, Britain incorporated Burma into British India in 1886, making it a major province by 1897. Rangoon (Yangon) was developed into a prosperous port city, dubbed the “Garden City of the East”.

By 1927, exports had grown 20-fold compared to 1870, as noted by Richard Crockett in Blood, Dreams and Gold: The Changing Face of Burma.

To fill administrative and business roles, the British brought in many Indians, altering Burma’s demographics. But the dethroning of the king, revered as protector of the Buddhist faith, deeply offended locals. Buddhist monks became central to the early anti-colonial resistance.

The Protest

Resistance sparked in the 1920s, led by students at Rangoon University. Among them was Aung San, who, along with fellow student U Nu, joined the Thakin movement, demanding national self-rule.

Separated

On April 1, 1937, just a decade before Indian independence, Burma was separated from India. King George VI decreed:

“Today Burma ceases to form part of the Indian Empire… the country would be better served if it followed a course independent of India.”

But Burma’s prosperity was short-lived.

Gunned Down

Although Aung San briefly aligned with the Japanese during World War II, he returned to the British fold and negotiated Burma’s independence in January 1947. His Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) won 248 of 255 seats in elections for the interim government.

But on July 19, 1947, Aung San and several cabinet members were assassinated.

Wee Hours

The burden of negotiating independence fell on U Nu, who led Burma to independence in the wee hours of January 4, 1948. Unlike other British colonies, Burma chose not to join the Commonwealth, reflecting deep anti-colonial sentiment.

Brief Tryst with Democracy

Burma’s early democracy was fragile. U Nu’s rule was challenged by:

• Communist insurgents

• Discontented ethnic minorities

• The legacy of British divide-and-rule policies

The failure to implement the constitutional promise of autonomy for minority states after 10 years spurred unrest. The military intervened in 1958, installing a “caretaker government” under General Ne Win. Although U Nu returned after the 1960 elections, democracy had effectively ended.

Autocracy Begins

In March 1962, Ne Win seized power through a coup. His “Burmese Way to Socialism” fused:

• Authoritarianism

• State socialism

• Buddhism

The economy crumbled. Isolationism ruled. The 1982 Citizenship Law stripped the Rohingya of citizenship. Ethnic groups faced harsh military repression.

8-8-88 Uprising

By 1987, after 25 years of authoritarian rule, a demonetization policy and rising poverty led to mass protests. On August 8, 1988 (8-8-88), a nationwide uprising broke out. Monks, students, workers—all joined.

Consequences:

• Army brutality shocked the nation; thousands killed

• Formation of the NLD in 1989, with Aung San Suu Kyi as general secretary

• The military formed SLORC, later SPDC

• Seeds were sown for a future democratic struggle

The 1990 elections were free and fair. The NLD won by a landslide, but the junta nullified the results. Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest for most of the next 20 years.

Military Entrenched

The military, realising its lack of public support, crafted the 2008 Constitution to preserve its control:

• 25 per cent of parliamentary seats reserved

• Control over key ministries

• Burma Becomes Myanmar

In 1989, the junta changed the country’s name to Myanmar, arguing it would reflect all ethnicities, not just the Burmans. Rangoon became Yangon. Since 2005, the capital has been Naypyidaw.

Militarised Election

In 2010, under a new law barring those with jail terms or foreign ties, Suu Kyi was blocked from the ballot. The USDP, backed by the military, won in an election boycotted by the NLD.

Controlled Democracy

In 2015, Myanmar held its first proper multi-party election in 25 years. The NLD returned to power with a landslide. Suu Kyi became State Counsellor, working alongside the military under the 2008 Constitution.

However, military abuses persisted.

In 2016–17, after insurgent attacks, the military unleashed brutal crackdowns on the Rohingya. Over 700,000 fled to Bangladesh. The UN called it “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing”.

Suu Kyi’s international image collapsed when she defended the military’s actions.

Election Time Again

In November 2020, the NLD again won convincingly. Fearing its eroding grip, the junta declared the elections fraudulent. Another coup was imminent.

The 2021 Coup

On February 1, 2021, the military staged a coup. Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and others were detained. A year-long national emergency was declared. Mass protests erupted, met with violent crackdowns.

• Over 6,000 killed

• Tens of thousands arrested

• Ethnic groups and civilians formed resistance alliances

• Junta launched violent campaigns, razing villages and torturing dissenters

A Failed State

Four-and-a-half years later, Myanmar appears to be a collapsed state. The junta controls only 21 per cent of territory. Opposition forces are gaining ground, and military morale is plummeting.

• 5,000+ civilians killed

• 3.3 million displaced

• 27,000+ detained

Widespread sexual violence and torture

Infrastructure, economy, education, and health have collapsed. Half the population lives in poverty. Three-quarters survive on subsistence. Famine looms in Rakhine, threatening 2 million people.

Bleak Future

The junta has announced elections in December, but based on its track record, they will be a farce.

Even if resistance forces topple the military, governing the diverse ethnic landscape will be a massive challenge. And critical questions remain: who will rebuild this devastated nation?

The UN is powerless beyond counting deaths. Asean is toothless. China plays both sides. Russia backs the junta.

And so, the core question remains:

Who will help Myanmar rise from the ashes of its own undoing?

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.