 "Modi’s plain-speak to Trump signals a doctrinal shift in India’s diplomacy")
If Operation Sindoor heralded a doctrinal shift in India’s counter-terrorism policy, what happened late Tuesday points at a doctrinal shift in diplomacy. India seems to have finally run out of patience with Donald Trump and is irritated enough to make its displeasure explicit.
In a remarkable phone call that lasted 35 minutes, initiated by the American side late Tuesday (American time), Prime Minister Narendra Modi indulged in some plain-speaking with the US president, and a day later the Indian foreign secretary made public details of the telephonic conversation.
The tone and tenor of the briefing was stern, acerbic and dry. Given the habitual reticence of India’s diplomatic corps, the way Vikram Misri, India’s top diplomat, shunned ambiguity in favour of perspicuity on a sensitive topic indicated that New Delhi is furious with Washington.
It was a long time coming. India had given Trump a very long rope. By some accounts, the loudmouth US president has publicly boasted about “stopping” a “nuclear war” between India and Pakistan no less than 14 times, complaining to the media that he “never gets credit” for “defusing a dangerous situation”. Trump’s fake bombast has a compelling reason.
The US president had claimed he would stop the Russia-Ukraine war “in a day” when he comes to power. That didn’t quite turn out the way he had thought. Instead, Trump is presiding over two active combats including a messy one in Middle East that has split the MAGA world into two, as well as a short-lived India-Pakistan conflict.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe self-claimed ‘peacemaking’ genius who loves to boast that he can “solve anything”, Trump has since been trying very hard to steal the credit for what he perceives as “solving” the “centuries old” India-Pakistan rivalry to demonstrate before his MAGA base that he is indeed ‘Neo’, The One in The Matrix, and pick up a Nobel peace prize along the way.
India has been watching this tamasha with what I assume would be a mixture of alarm and quiet outrage. New Delhi hasn’t exactly been silent, however. Though the prime minister preferred not to publicly contradict the US president till June 17, the Indian armed forces, the foreign minister and the ministry of external affairs have on multiple occasions given a clear timeline of events, clarifying that it was Pakistan that had reached out for a ceasefire and that its appeal was entertained only after it came through proper military channels.
India also made it clear, more than once, that the US had no role to play in the ceasefire and at no stage did Washington and New Delhi discuss trade in lieu of the conflict. During his recent tour of Europe, external affairs minister S Jaishankar was unusually candid while speaking to a Netherlands-based broadcaster.
“We made one thing very clear to everybody who spoke to us, not just the United States but to everyone, saying if the Pakistanis want to stop fighting, they need to tell us. We need to hear it from them. Their general has to call up our general and say this. And that is what happened.” Asked about US role in the truce, Jaishankar quipped, “the US was in the United States”.
That should have been that. Sadly, it wasn’t.
There’s a case to be made that India could have pushed back much sooner against Trump’s relentless fabrication and lies. The post of American president assumes a certain gravitas and weight that cannot be summarily dismissed. It set the template for a narrative that Pakistan gleefully exploited and those sceptical of India’s prowess during Operation Sindoor, both at home and abroad, latched onto.
Trump’s duplicity was flagrant, but India hoped that it won’t require a direct rebuttal by the prime minister lest a partnership on which India places a lot of score is damaged. India’s strategic culture values restraint, pragmatism and ambiguity over directness or confrontation. Differences are conveyed delicately in public, without causing offence or escalating tensions. These structures have been put in place to navigate and achieve objectives in a complex world that deals in shades of grey.
The Indian way is to deal in strategic ambiguity, along with careful choice of words, reticence and subtlety in public. Indian diplomacy trusts process over instinct, and it is handled by professionals who closely hew to our strategic culture. An understanding of this fundamental trait of diplomacy in general and Indian diplomacy in particular may tell us the consequential shift that was witnessed on June 17 when Modi answered Trump’s call.
What broke the proverbial camel’s back was Trump’s sneaky attempt at ambushing Modi into meeting the visiting Pakistan army chief Asim Munir at the White House. Trump doesn’t know, neither does he care for the core tenets of India’s national security, foreign policy or the redlines over Kashmir.
After trying to steal credit for India-Pakistan ceasefire, Trump wanted to bring Munir and Modi – one army chief and another a thrice-elected leader of world’s largest democracy – over the table at the White House to ‘score’ a victory.
Trump’s MAGA base couldn’t care less about India or Pakistan, but they do care about a nuclear war and Trump wanted to flex a little by arranging for his private little circus where two sworn enemies, both heading nuclear-armed states, sit in the same room because the world’s most powerful man had commanded them to do so.
The cluelessness, callousness and arrogance is breathtaking! When Trump casually requested Modi to drop by in Washington, he was attempting a coup, trying to make the democratically elected leader of India sit in the same room with an army chief, a tinpot tyrant of an adversarial nation that depends on IMF doles for survival, and one which recently orchestrated one of the most gruesome terror attacks on Indian soil.
Evidently, New Delhi had enough. One can almost visualize the cold fury that accompanied foreign secretary Misri’s words when he said, “Prime Minister Modi clearly conveyed to President Trump that at no point during this entire sequence of events was there any discussion, at any level, on an India-US Trade Deal, or any proposal for a mediation by the U.S. between India and Pakistan.
“The discussion to cease military action took place directly between India and Pakistan through the existing channels of communication between the two armed forces, and it was initiated at Pakistan’s request. Prime Minister Modi firmly stated that India does not and will never accept mediation. There is complete political consensus in India on this matter.”
The official translation of Misri’s words, that I quoted above, curtails the emphasis of these lines ever so slightly that were delivered with biting clarity: “Prime Minister Modi stressed that India has never accepted mediation, does not accept it, and will never accept it.”
These words should be read in conjunction with Modi’s speech at the G7 summit Tuesday where he reached shortly after Trump had left the venue. Without taking any names, the prime minister said, “On the one hand, we are quick to impose various sanctions based on our own preferences and interests… On the other hand, nations that openly support terrorism continue to be rewarded. I have some serious questions for those present in this room.” The implication for the US president, who was scheduled to host the Pakistan army chief at the White House, was clear.
It is tempting to imagine that Trump made a calculation error. Trade cannot remotely be the leverage that will force India to give up on Kashmir – which is of core interest to India, a red line that cannot be crossed. Modi is on the mark when he talks about “complete political consensus” on this issue. Sadly, the reason behind Trump’s silly attempt is possibly more banal.
Trump was looking for a PR boost where he would be centrestage at the White House, making two nuclear-armed nations play peace through his sheer charisma, in complete disregard for the complexity, context and history of Kashmir and its role in India-Pakistan rivalry. It never occurred to Trump that an India which had a long-standing position of no third-party intervention or mediation on Kashmir and has never accepted such a proposal even when it was weak, won’t give in at a time when it is strong, and enjoys an ever-widening gap with Pakistan in economy and national composite power.
In Misri’s detailed statement it was evident that India has learnt its lessons. Instead of waiting for Trump to put forward his version of events, India deployed its topmost diplomat to clear the air, prevent mischaracterization and confusion. It points to a significant trust deficit.
India would also be aware that the repercussion for declining Trump’s offer to Modi may fall on the trade deal. The US president acts on short term impulses and doesn’t take kindly to perceived slights. That should tell us about the extent of India’s irritation at Trump’s private lunch with Munir that such a risk was deemed acceptable than giving in to Trump’s machinations.
It is difficult to conduct diplomacy with an American president who hands out White House lunch invitations to guests based on whether they have called for Trump to be nominated for the Nobel peace prize, as Munir reportedly did. The confirmation came from the White House itself.
It indicates several things. One, Pakistan knows how to play the Americans, having mastered the dark art for decades. Two, Trump’s bloated ego leads him to take bad decisions, and three, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
It never occurred to the American president that he was lowering the dignity of his office by inviting for lunch an army chief who, despite pulling the strings of the puppet civilian government, is not even a titular head of state, and someone who anointed himself the title of ‘Field Marshal’ after getting a royal spanking at the battlefield.
Trump is fond of autocrats, dictators and authoritarian figures. Perhaps in Munir he sees someone who can give him what he needs, an access to Pakistan’s land, air and naval bases as America mulls formally joining Israel in the war against Iran. Trump has reportedly offered Pakistan fifth-generation stealth jets, advanced missiles and financial aid if it sways away from China and Russia.
One isn’t sure of Munir’s play, but it can be said with reasonable certainty that Trump’s folly is threatening the future of US-India partnership.
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