 "McDonald’s Trump is lovin’ it as Kamala Harris’s lead evaporates")
More than a week after the 45th POTUS’s election stunt at the Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania, McDonald’s franchise, he’s still dunking his unconventional antic in the American media and savouring every bit of it.
The New York Post page one splashed Trump’s photo serving fries to customers through the drive-thru window on October 20 with the headline ‘Hail to the Chef’ and the strap ‘Trump serves as Commander in Beef at McDonald’s’.
Come on New York Post, the headline writes itself. That's McDonald Trump, pic.twitter.com/NQmw5Uaamy
— MichaelrHarris 🍩s for life! (@MichaelrHarris_) October 21, 2024
Irrespective of positive or negative reactions, Trump is a showman who has perfected the art of stealing the thunder from his rivals.
Therefore, when Don removed his suit jacket to don a McDonald’s yellow-lined apron, dunked fries in oil and salted and scooped them into boxes, it appeared as a juvenile poll stunt to his critics and Democrats.
It wasn’t—Trump’s frying feat was a clever election strategy.
First, Trump knows that the fast food giant is part of the American way of life. According to the data firm Numerator, around 9 out of 10 American households visited McDonald’s, at least, once over the last year.
Second, Trump’s stunt was another way to connect to the working class. Social media was flooded with pictures and videos of excited customers surprised at being served by the 45th POTUS.
“Namaste,” says an American-Indian customer from inside his car as Trump hands him over a packet of golden, crispy fries. “Thank you, Mr President. You made it possible for ordinary people like us to be here,” he says as Trump engages in a cheerful conversation. An Indian-American woman in the passenger seat quips, “Thank you, for taking the bullet for us.”
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe video fetched more than four million views.
Third, Trump’s love for Big Mac, Filet-o-Fish and other McDonald’s junk food is well-known—and he chose his fave fast food brand to garner votes. Trump’s favourite McDonald’s order was “two Big Macs, two Fillet-O-Fish and a chocolate malted [shake]”, his former campaign officials Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie wrote in their 2017 book Let Trump be Trump.
The fourth reason for Trump McDonald’s act was his challenger and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who had claimed to have worked for the company briefly in the 1980s. How could Trump tolerate it? “I’ve now worked for 15 minutes more than Kamala,” he said at the drive-thru window, hammering that his working-class credentials are better and his unsubstantiated claim that she was never employed with McDonald’s.
The fifth and the most important reason for Trump’s strategy was to steal Harris’s media thunder and limelight—that too in Pennsylvania, which has the highest number of electoral votes, while she campaigned in another battleground state, Georgia.
The master media manipulator knew that he would be the headline, not his rival. While Harris visited Divine Faith Ministries International in Jonesboro to win over Black churchgoers and had the legendary Stevie Wonder sing her “Happy Birthday” on her 60th and went with him to a second church in suburban Atlanta, Trump was bigger news.
While Harris sticks to the conventional, scripted and disciplined campaign style, Trump uses his erratic, shocking and unscripted tactics—even if he gets slammed. Yelp, where customers review local businesses online, temporarily disabled the review function for the McDonald’s joint after a swamp of negative comments against Trump. But still, Trump is in the news as usual; he has a bigger fish to fry.
Trump’s lovin’ it as he bounces back in polls
Trump is becoming wilder as D-Day nears—whether it’s his “ enemy within” remarks, “ shit vice-president” jibe at Harris or the lewd comments about golf legend Arnold Palmer.
Why is Trump on the offensive?
A raft of polling by major media organisations and data companies put Trump and Harris in a statistical dead heat or him trailing or leading her only by a few points nationally and the Republican ahead in some battleground states.
The final nationwide New York Times (NYT)/Siena College poll, conducted from October 20 to 23, shows Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 per cent. Earlier in October, she led him by 49-46 per cent. Both candidates are tied on favourability and unfavourability at 48 per cent and 50 per cent, respectively.
According to the poll, the economy is the top voter concern at 27 per cent, abortion 15 per cent and immigration 15 per cent. Surprisingly, the state of democracy/corruption and character/competence of a candidate, on which Harris has been blasting Trump, matter only 7 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, to voters.
On the important issues of economy and immigration, Trump beats Harris 52-45 per cent and 54-43 per cent, respectively. Only on abortion and democracy, she beats him 55-40 per cent and 51-45 per cent, respectively.
The final CNN-SSRS poll, conducted from October 20 to 23, also finds the two nominees tied with 47 per cent of likely voters supporting each. Similarly, on favourability they are tied at 41 per cent and on unfavorability, Trump and Harris are at 54-52 per cent—she’s down four per cent on favourability.
Trump also beats Harris on bringing the kind of change the US needs by 44-38 per cent and sharing the voter’s vision for the country by 43-39 per cent.
An October 23-34 Emerson College Polling survey shows the two nominees tied at 49 per cent after she led by 49-48 per cent one week earlier.
An October 19-22 national survey by The Economist and YouGov finds Harris beating Trump by 48-46 per cent. The latest national polling average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill shows Harris leading Trump by only 0.9 percentage points, 48.7-47.8 per cent.
An October 15-19 CNBC survey shows Trump ahead of Harris by 48-46 per cent while a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) survey the same month shows him beating her by 47-45 per cent after trailing her 45-47 per cent in August.
Harris campaign gets jittery
With less than a week to Election Day, the Harris campaign stares at a resurgent Trump, who has bounced back by erasing the vice-president’s initial polling lead.
Democrats face a frustrating moment. Their whirlwind campaign, which started after President Joe Biden’s disastrous Oval Office race exit in July and catapulted Harris to dizzying heights with staggering donations and a sudden jump in polling, especially after the Democratic National Convention and her winning debate with Trump, now fears his return to the White House.
Harris is increasingly concentrating more on Trump’s character as the election nears despite several polls showing that a nominee’s character matters less and economy and immigration matter more to voters. Recently, she dubbed him a “fascist” and “increasingly unhinged and unstable” in her bid to appeal to moderate Republicans and independents.
According to CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten, the host of CNN’s ‘Margins of Error’, a podcast about statistical stories, Harris is “on the attack” because “Trump’s more popular at this point in this campaign than at this point in either his 2016 or 2020 bids”.
Why is Harris on the attack? Trump's more popular at this point in this campaign than at this point in either his 2016 or 2020 bids.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 18, 2024
Harris's popularity rise, on the other hand, has crested, and she's fallen back (barely) into net negative favorability territory. pic.twitter.com/2hddgwc8Zq
“Harris’s popularity rise, on the other hand, has crested, and she’s fallen back (barely) into net negative favourability territory,” he tweeted.
Trump is more popular now, October 17, with -9 net favourability than he was at the same time in 2020 (-12) and 2016 (-27), according to Enten. On the other hand, Harris’s popularity has stalled. On July 17, her net favourability was -15 on July 17, -4 on August 17, +1 on September 17 but -1 on October 17.
Notably, Hillary Clinton was more popular than Trump at this point but lost and Biden too but he narrowly won.
Most importantly, Trump has a real shot to win the popular vote—the first Republican to do so in 20 years and only second in 36 years.
There's a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 25, 2024
He'd be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years & only 2nd in 36 years. pic.twitter.com/Pp4LJPwUZe
Enten points to the national margin between Trump and Harris. Trump is three points ahead in the WSJ polls, two points ahead in the CNBC poll and tied with Harris in the NYT poll. While Harris is ahead by three points each in the IPSOS and YouGov polls.
What’s worrying for Harris is that she is ahead of Trump by only one point at this time compared to Clinton’s and Biden’s lead of 6 and 9 points, respectively.
According to famous American statistician and poker player Nate Silver, who predicted the results in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 presidential election and was highly accurate in the 2012 and the 2020 White House races, “It’s been a pretty bad run of national polls for Harris”.
Harris’s lead in “our national polling average is down to 1.3 points. Still practically, a toss-up, but the Electoral College/popular vote gap is likely to be wider than that,” he tweeted.
Today's update.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 24, 2024
It's been a pretty bad run of national polls for Harris; her lead in our national polling average is down to 1.3 points. Still practically a toss-up, but the Electoral College / popular vote gap is likely to be wider than that.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/4ZtrBed0GZ
What’s bothering the Harris campaign is that Trump has either erased her lead or is leading in the swing states—though all figures are within the margin of error.
According to the NYT and FiveThirtyEight polling averages in swing states when rounded off show Harris leading by less than one point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin each (49-48 per cent) and more than one point in Michigan (49-48 per cent).
Trump leads in North Carolina by less than one point (49-48 per cent) and more than one point in Georgia and Arizona each (49-48 per cent). Trump and Harris are tied in Nevada (48-48 per cent).
Similarly, the FiveThirtyEight polling average in the swing states shows Harris leading by less than one point in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump leads by less than one point in Nevada and Pennsylvania, more than one point in North Carolina and more than two points in Georgia and Arizona.
Moreover, polls can miss the final results by considerable amounts. According to the NYT, some of the biggest polling misses were in Wisconsin by 9 points in 2020, and North Carolina by 6 points in 2016.
If Harris wins every state where she currently leads in the NYT polling averages, she will reach the necessary 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, if the polls change or miss in Trump’s favour or are already underestimating him, he could reach the 270 mark.
Trump appeals to American masculinity
A majority of men, especially white, have always supported Republicans because of the party’s approach to the economy, national defence and crime.
Trump appeals to the hypermasculinity of his core base through tough-talking and stereotyping/mocking men who don’t look masculine enough—for example, his recent criticism of Palmer’s genitals and boasting about his own manhood, the locker room talk and the Access Hollywood tape leak in 2016.
When radio host Howard Stern praised Harris during an interview earlier this month, Trump called him a “beta male” on his Truth Social website. “BETA MALE Howard Stern made a fool of himself on his low-rated radio show when he ‘interviewed’ Lyin’ Kamala Harris, and hit her with so many SOFTBALL questions that even she was embarrassed.”
The 2024 presidential election is the most polarised one, especially on gender. Rattled by a second woman challenger eight years later, Trump often highlights masculinity on social media and the campaign trail.
A case in point was when WWE stars Hulk Hogan and The Undertaker endorsed Trump.
A September 3-15 survey by Pew Research Center found that 42 per cent of men rate themselves as highly masculine while 43 per cent lean masculine.
Men and women under 30 are less likely than their older counterparts to rate themselves as highly masculine or highly feminine, respectively.
— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) October 21, 2024
The poll showed that 53 per cent of Republican men rate themselves as highly masculine compared to 29 per cent of Democratic men.
An August YouGov poll showed Trump beats Harris among American voters who view themselves as completely masculine by 57-36 per cent and 51-41 per cent among mostly masculine men.
A Fairleigh Dickinson poll showed that the men who consider themselves completely masculine favour Trump over Harris 64-30 per cent. More than 80 per cent of male voters who view Trump as completely masculine will vote for him—and 98 per cent of Republicans who consider Trump as completely masculine will vote for him.
The gap between Trump and Harris among male voters is huge. The CNN-SSRS poll found a similar margin. Trump beats Harris among men 51-45 per cent.
Trump won male voters in both the 2020 and 2016 presidential races, according to New York Times exit polls, and gender polarization—a term that describes recent trends of men shifting toward Republicans as women become more Democratic—is expected to continue in the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump’s support among men has increased compared to the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. In 2020, he beat Biden among male voters 53-45 per cent and led Clinton 52-41 per cent in 2016.
A Pew September 30-October 6 survey found Trump leading Harris among male voters 51-43 per cent and white men 55-41 per cent. Similarly, an NYT September 29-October 6 poll showed Trump leading Harris among men 53-42 per cent.
Moreover, black men, an integral part of the Democratic vote bank, have been less supportive of the party in the last 12 years. NBC exit polls showed that 87 per cent of black men supported Barack Obama in 2012; 82 per cent backed Clinton in 2016 and 79 per cent voted for Biden in 2020. An October NYT/Siena poll showed that 70 per cent of black men will vote for Harris.
Disenchantment with democracy helps Trump
A majority of Americans are disenchanted with democracy and feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction and officials don’t represent them properly. This anti-establishment feeling was reaped by Trump, a realty tycoon with no political experience, and helped him win in 2016.
The anti-establishment factor could again help Trump in November. Trump has been targeting the Biden administration on the economy, particularly inflation, and immigration for more than a year and his comments are resonating with voters.
A March 2024 Associated Press-NORC Center poll found that 53 per cent of Americans believe America is a poorly functioning democracy. A January 2024 Gallup poll showed that only 28 per cent of Americans are satisfied with the way democracy is working, sharply down from 61 per cent in 1984.
A February Pew survey found that 66 per cent of Americans are dissatisfied with how democracy is functioning Satisfaction with how the US democracy is working has decreased significantly since the last time this question was asked from 41 per cent in 2021 to 31 per cent in 2023.
A big reason for the dissatisfaction with democracy is that a majority of ordinary Americans (83 per cent) feel that politicians are disconnected from them. As of April, only 22 per cent of Americans trusted the federal government to do what is right “just about always”—in 2023, the trust factor was lowest in Pew’s seven decades of polling at 16 per cent.
Americans also feel that the country is on the wrong track. An October IPSOS poll found that 60 per cent of registered voters find that the economy is headed in the wrong direction, 65 per cent feel the same about the immigration policy, 70 per cent on the cost of living and 72 per cent on national politics.
A YouGov survey in the same month found that 65 per cent feel that the US is on the wrong track. Moreover, 79 per cent of voters who think that the American way of life is bad and needs to be restored to a better way it used to be want to vote for Trump. Besides, 71 per cent of Americans who believe that the American way of life is good and should be kept the way also want to vote for him.
The only extreme option to democracy is authoritarianism—and several American voters support it. So, when Trump says he will be a dictator on day one if he returns to power, it resonates with such voters.
A June survey by the American non-profit and non-partisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) found that almost 40 per cent of Americans, especially Republicans and particularly those who support Trump, support an authoritarian government.
“Our new survey finds that 4 in 10 Americans are susceptible to authoritarian appeals, and that number rises to two-thirds of Republicans and white evangelical Protestants,” according to PRRI founder-president Robert P. Jones. “Notably, while the vast majority of Americans reject the use of political violence, those who support authoritarianism are nearly twice as likely as the general public to support it.”
The February Pew survey found that 32 per cent of Americans supported an authoritarian leader. The latest Best Countries project released by US News showed that 57.4 per cent of Americans believe the president should have total, unchecked authority.
The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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