Maryam Nawaz’s Kartarpur Sahib overture points at new Pakistani thinking on India and Modi

In an extraordinary, if not unprecedented, step, Pakistan’s Punjab chief minister (CM) Maryam Nawaz went to Kartarpur Sahib on April 18, i.e. on the occasion of Baisakhi to greet the Sikhs, especially the ‘jatha’ from India. She gave a brief speech and also joined the langar. Despite the Lok Sabha elections the Indian media took note of Maryam’s gesture. It largely interpreted it as a pointer to Pakistan wanting to normalise ties with India after the elections are over.

There may be an element of truth in such thinking, but a deeper analysis of Maryam’s Kartarpur foray is needed. However, first the basic points that Maryam conveyed to the ‘sangat’ and the manner in which she did so and a few words on Maryam herself and what led her to the CM’s chair in Punjab.

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Maryam is former prime minister and PML(N) party supreme leader Nawaz Sharif’s chosen heir. Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother and current Pakistani prime minister is therefore her uncle. Earlier, while Nawaz Sharif was prime minister Shehbaz was Punjab CM. He administered the province, Sharif’s power base, ably and has always had a line open with the army leadership. Shehbaz was assisted in handling the province by his son Hamza Sharif who also briefly became the province’s CM in 2022 when the army and then prime minister Imran Khan had locked horns. After Nawaz Sharif’s return from a four-year exile in London in October last year it was largely anticipated that he would become prime minister with Shehbaz returning to Lahore to run the province as CM.

It became increasingly clear in the run up to the February 2024 Pakistani national elections that Nawaz Sharif’s health had deteriorated and he did not possess the vigour to be prime minister at a time the country was mired in multi-dimensional crises. The election results also showed that Imran Khan, despite all that the army and the People’s Democratic Movement government had thrown at him, retained a substantial measure of support in Punjab. At the same time the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) did well in Sindh.

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Very difficult PML(N)-PPP negotiations, clearly overseen by the army, from behind the scenes, followed. The arrangement that emerged saw Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister forming the national government with outside PPP support, Asif Zardari becoming president of Pakistan, and Maryam becoming the first woman CM of the Punjab. In this the person who has temporarily lost out is Hamza Sharif but the final word has not been said on how the reconciliation of political interests between Maryam and Humza will eventually occur.

Now, to return to Maryam’s visit to Kartarpur Sahib, she made an impressive speech to the sangat. She struck the right notes. She spoke in chaste Punjabi and projected herself as the daughter of Punjab who was the first woman to become CM in either Pakistani or Indian Punjab. She stressed her family’s background in the village of Jati Umra in the Amritsar district from where her grandfather had migrated to Pakistan in 1947. Three other points that she made deserve special mention.

One, that Pakistan was a place where the minorities had the freedom to practice their faith and only recently the country had marked Eid, Easter, Holi and now she had come to be with the Sikh pilgrims at Baisakhi. Maryam’s reference to this aspect is part of Pakistan’s current endeavour to project itself as a moderate and liberal Muslim country. This is, of course, at variance with the prevalence and growth of extremist Islamist forces which want the country’s governance to be strictly in accordance with the Sharia.

The second point — and one of great significance — was Maryam’s mention of the commonalities between Muslims and Sikhs. She took care to use the formulation “you” and “us”; thus, carefully avoiding mentioning either Islam or Sikhism or Muslims and Sikhs. Obviously, she did not want to ruffle the feathers of the Pakistani ulema. She said that both “you” and “us” believe in one power which is the supreme power of the universe. She added that both “you” and “us” believe in honest living and earning through righteous means and giving to charity.

Finally, Maryam referred to her father Nawaz Sharif’s conviction that neighbours should open their hearts to each other and live in peace and also cooperate and trade with each other. It is true that Nawaz has always wanted to trade with India while retaining Pakistan’s position on J&K. It will be recalled that in 2015 Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif had attempted to begin a peace process. In this context Modi had landed in Lahore on Christmas Day of that year on his way back from Kabul to Delhi. That day was Nawaz Sharif’s birthday. Sharif had taken Modi to Raiwind where the Sharif’s family estates are located.

That was also the period when Maryam’s daughter was getting married. It will also be recalled that the Pakistani generals put an end to the Modi-Nawaz initiative by engineering a terrorist attack on the Pathankot airbase within ten days of Modi’s visit.

A comment on the commonalities between Muslims and Sikhs referred to subtly by Maryam would be in order. I have mentioned in some articles in Firstpost and elsewhere that there is a body of scholarly Pakistani opinion which strongly believes that the Muslim League committed a strategic blunder in attacking the Sikhs in 1947. These scholars hold that the Muslim League should have sought to drive a wedge between Hindus and Sikhs. It should have compelled the former to go to India but should have prevented the Sikhs from leaving through stressing the commonalities between Muslims and Sikhs. It has been the constant endeavour of the Pakistani establishment after 1947 to win the Sikhs to its side. Maryam’s words were from this playbook.

What the Pakistani’s overlook is that Sikhism grew out of the body of Hinduism and that relations between Hindus and Sikhs are unshakeable. The two communities have also shared relations which are categorized by “roti-beti”. These are the strong bonds that finally ended Pakistan inspired and assisted Khalistan enterprise. The Pakistanis may keep trying but they cannot dilute the patriotism of the Sikhs towards their motherland, India. The Indian authorities have to take every care to follow Pakistani attempts at sowing disaffection against India among the Sikh community here as they are doing abroad.

It is interesting that Maryam placed herself squarely within the context of Punjab. She did not overtly get into any political subjects. Indeed, it would have been inappropriate for her to do so on the occasion and in Kartarpur Sahib. However, the Sharif family has never hidden its Kashmiri biradari origin. It is part of the Kashmiri diaspora settled in the Punjab. In this context it may be recalled that Pakistan’s national poet Mohammed Iqbal was himself from a branch of the Saprus who had converted to Islam. Maryam’s mother belonged to the Kashmiri biradari; she was a Butt, a form of spelling which some Bhatts use after becoming Muslims.

Nawaz Sharif’s passion for Kashmir has never diminished even if he wants a modus-vivendi with India. The question now is if the Pakistani army under its chief Asim Munir is reaching the conclusion that with the country’s macroeconomic situation remaining fragile, an opening with India is a necessity. Pakistan will be going for a 24th IMF support programme once its current one ends. It has no choice but to do so.

Maryam’s Kartarpur initiative would have no doubt been cleared by Islamabad and Rawalpindi is also indicative of their conclusion that Modi and BJP will form the government after elections. Even while wanting an opening with India, Pakistan will look for some concessions on J&K, like restoration of its statehood. It will be important for the incoming government to carefully evaluate Pakistani intentions and ask that it ends the infrastructure of terrorism before the two countries embark on a serious engagement.

There is no indication, as yet, despite the grave challenge Pakistan faces on its western frontier with an alienated Afghan Taliban who are not breaking their connection with the TTP, that Pakistan is willing to dismantle the groups it has nurtured against India.

The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.