Key factors that will determine Opposition’s fate in Phase I of Lok Sabha polls

As the sun rises on the 44-day marathon of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, India’s political landscape braces for a seismic shift. The stakes are sky-high for the Opposition parties, who find themselves at a crossroads after a decade under the shadow of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Since 2014, the Opposition’s influence has waned, with many parties losing their foothold across the nation’s diverse states. In the world’s largest democracy, the vitality of governance is matched only by the necessity of a robust Opposition, which injects vibrancy and accountability into the democratic process.

The Opposition’s retreat is not merely a consequence of the BJP’s ascendancy but also a reflection of their internal fissures and strategic missteps. The inaugural phase of the 2024 general elections is more than just a preliminary round; it is a referendum on the Opposition alliance, the INDIA bloc, and their capacity to recalibrate and reclaim relevance in the Indian polity.

This phase encompasses a vast electoral expanse: all 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand’s complete set of five, a dozen from Rajasthan’s Sekhawati region, Western UP’s eight, Madhya Pradesh’s six, including the indomitable Chhindwara, quintets from Assam and Maharashtra’s Vidarbha, Bihar’s quartet, a trio from West Bengal, and a smattering of seats across the Northeast, including Arunachal, Manipur, and Meghalaya. Additionally, singular seats in Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura, Sikkim, Andaman and Nicobar, Lakshadweep, Puducherry, Chhattisgarh, and Jammu and Kashmir will also witness the democratic exercise. Notably, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh are simultaneously electing their state governments.

The first phase is a litmus test for the Congress, particularly in strongholds like Chhindwara, and a gauge of the Opposition’s resonance with the electorate. It’s a battle for narrative control, with the Opposition seeking to puncture the BJP’s ‘double-engine sarkar’ claim by highlighting their governance alternatives. The outcomes here will not only shape the immediate electoral narrative but also set the trajectory for the Opposition’s future. Will they emerge as a phoenix from the ashes of past defeats, or will the BJP’s juggernaut continue unimpeded? The answer lies in the hands of the voters, who carry the weight of India’s democratic destiny as they step into the polling booths.

Opposition’s Stronghold: Groundswell of support in the South

In the verdant expanse of India’s southern heartlands, a political saga unfolds with the dawn of the Lok Sabha elections. Here, the Congress party, once a colossus straddling the nation, now seeks to reaffirm its roots amidst the whispers of the coconut groves and the rustle of the paddy fields. The southern breeze carries murmurs of a resurgence as the party fortifies its bastions and weaves alliances with regional titans like the DMK.

The DMK, under the astute leadership of Stalin, has emerged as a formidable ally, a beacon of hope for the Congress in the tempestuous seas of Indian politics. Together, they form a mosaic of ideologies, a coalition that includes the CPI, CPM, VCC, IUML, MDMK, and others, each a thread in the vibrant tapestry of Opposition unity.

As Tamil Nadu’s polling booths beckon, the BJP, led by the charismatic Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has not been idle. Their overtures to the south have been relentless, a courtship of promises and grand visions, with leaders like Annamalai at the vanguard, hoping to charm the Dravidian heartland.

The Congress, with its allies, stands at a crossroads; their grassroots connection—a lifeline that has weathered many a storm—is now put to the test. Will the southern soil, tilled by the hands of loyalists and nurtured by the sweat of believers, yield a harvest of seats for the Opposition? Or will the lotus bloom amidst the rice fields and coffee plantations?

The answer lies in the heartbeats of millions and in the silent contemplation of the voter behind the curtain of the ballot box. A strong showing in Tamil Nadu could be the clarion call for the Opposition, a signal that the roots of the grand old party run deep and its branches still reach out to the skies, promising shade and shelter to those who seek it. The first phase is not just an election; it’s a testament to the enduring spirit of the South, a narrative of resilience and hope in the face of political tides.

SP-Congress alliance faces decisive test in Western UP’s electoral crucible

The commencement of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Western Uttar Pradesh, encompassing crucial seats like Saharanpur, Bijnor, and Pilibhit, heralds a significant electoral battleground for the SP-Congress alliance. This region, marked by its Jat and sugarcane demographics, embodies a diverse electorate with a notable Muslim population ranging from 35 to 50 per cent. The alliance’s success here is paramount, not just for securing immediate victories but also for setting the strategic momentum for subsequent phases of the election.

Meanwhile, the Rashtriya Lok Dal’s (RLD) strategic pivot, departing from the India alliance to join forces with the BJP, adds a twist to the electoral narrative. This shift, driven by a mix of factors, including promised cabinet roles and favourable seat allocations, particularly in Baghpat and Bijnor, could potentially alter voting dynamics. The BJP sees this alliance as a means to consolidate the Jat vote bank and achieve its ambitious electoral targets, while the SP-Congress alliance faces a pivotal test of its appeal and strategic acumen in this crucial phase.

Ultimately, the outcomes in Western UP not only determine immediate seat wins but also influence broader political alliances and strategies, making it a focal point in shaping Uttar Pradesh’s political trajectory in the forthcoming Lok Sabha term.

Congress performances in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh

The onset of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections marks a critical period for the Congress party, especially in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. These states, historically Congress strongholds, have witnessed a gradual erosion of the party’s influence in recent years, exemplified by electoral setbacks in Rajasthan and consecutive BJP terms in Madhya Pradesh.

In Madhya Pradesh, the focus narrows on the Chhindwara constituency, a symbol of Congress’ unyielding dominance never before breached. The legacy of Kamal Nath intertwined with this seat underscores its significance beyond mere electoral calculations. The party’s performance here will gauge its resilience against the BJP’s aggressive onslaught.

Rajasthan presents a different dynamic, with the Congress’s internal cohesion playing a pivotal role. The alignment of stalwarts like Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot, and Govind Singh Dotasra signifies a strategic consolidation to counter the BJP’s dominance. This united front aims to reinvigorate Congress’s appeal and reclaim lost ground.

Congress’s strategy hinges on fortifying traditional bases while projecting a united front to appeal broadly. Navigating internal dynamics and presenting a cohesive leadership narrative will determine whether the Congress can rejuvenate its presence or cede further ground to the BJP.

As the election fervour intensifies, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh stand as crucibles, defining Congress’s immediate electoral fortunes and hinting at its broader trajectory in these pivotal states.

Congress’ crucial test in the Northeast

The inaugural phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections stands not just as a litmus test for the ruling BJP but also as a pivotal arena for the Congress and other Opposition factions, particularly in the Northeastern states. Congress’s performance here carries immense weight, setting the cadence for the broader Opposition narrative and potentially unveiling ramifications for the BJP amid the ongoing Manipur conundrum.

In the Northeast, traditionally a bastion of regional forces, the Congress has grappled with retaining a robust presence. The BJP’s advances in the region during the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls have compounded the Congress’s challenge, necessitating an arduous effort to reclaim lost ground. The phase’s coverage spans key constituencies in Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tripura, and Manipur—this latter observing a staggered election due to ongoing ethnic tensions.

The Manipur imbroglio, characterised by prolonged ethnic strife, furnishes the Opposition with potent ammunition against the BJP-led Central administration. Critiques on the handling of this crisis have been levelled, spotlighting the government’s claims on women’s empowerment, tribal engagement, law enforcement, and the efficacy of the “double-engine sarkar” narrative. The BJP’s handling of this discord and subsequent political reverberations could sway voter sentiments in Manipur and reverberate across the region.

For Congress, a formidable showing in the Northeast could redress the narrative of stagnation and disarray, infusing the Opposition with renewed vigour and cohesion. Conversely, a lacklustre performance may consolidate the BJP’s foothold and embolden its regional stance.

As the nation watches this electoral overture, all players stand on the precipice of consequence. Outcomes in the Northeast not only mirror regional political landscapes but also serve as a microcosm of national sentiment. The Congress’ adept navigation of the BJP’s hurdles in Manipur and its ability to offer a compelling alternative narrative will be instrumental in shaping Opposition dynamics for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.