Japan’s next prime minister Shigeru Ishiba will have tough tasks ahead

In his fifth attempt to get the top job, defence geek Shigeru Ishiba bagged the leadership election of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and is set to become the country’s next prime minister, succeeding Fumio Kishida, who decided to step down in August amid plummeting approval ratings of the LDP and mounting scandals.

The LDP’s majority in the legislature means the former defence minister, Ishiba, is certain to be the 102nd prime minister of the island nation after being sworn in by the Diet on October 1.

The efforts will now be to show that the LDP has a new leadership, and it will try to win back popular confidence in party supporters and the general public. The weeks of campaigning have created a momentum for the party, carrying forward which fresh parliamentary polls might be soon announced—expectations of snap elections are high.

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These times will test Ishiba as he faces domestic and international challenges amid a responsibility to improve party image and ensure a victory in the upcoming general elections.

Japan is an ageing economy; its ‘super-aged’ society is the oldest in the world, as 28.7 per cent of the population is of the age of 65 or older. This demographic shift is impacting the country’s economy, workforce, and society as a whole.

Domestically, expectations from the new PM will be to bring a breathing life to the economy as the Bank of Japan moves away from decades of monetary easing that has slashed the value of the yen. The victory of Ishiba, who is deemed a vocal critic of aggressive monetary stimulus, saw yen bounce back on Friday, recovering earlier losses. The new PM is committed to ensuring Japan ’emerges from deflation’.

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On the geopolitical arena, Japan faces an increasingly assertive China getting close to Russia and increasing defence cooperation between them; moreover, the axis of China-Russia-North Korea is getting even stronger, particularly after Western sanctions on Russia pushed Moscow into Chinese embrace tighter.

As per reports, recent Chinese and Russian incursions into Japan’s airspace have provoked protests from the Japanese government. Also, China successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, raising international concerns, with the Japanese spokesperson complaining that Japan had not been informed priorly.

Rightly so, foreign policy and defence played a large role in the LDP campaign, and just before the campaign began, Ishiba had visited Taiwan, and he met Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to discuss ‘the situation across the Straits and Japan-Taiwan ties’. Also, Ishiba’s campaign indicates that he will seek more oversight over the US’ use of its bases in Japan.

However, as per Chinese reports, Japan has been seeking the Asia-version of NATO. Japan was invited to the NATO Summit in Washington, DC, in July, along with New Zealand and South Korea, for the third year in a row. Meanwhile, Ishiba is a supporter of the same idea.

Ishiba also advocates a shift in the rules of engagement of the Japanese Self Defence Forces; he votes for the SDF being allowed to fire warning shots at any foreign military that intrudes into Japan’s airspace and waters.

So, even though Ishiba has achieved his long-held dream of becoming the prime minister—and perhaps that was the reason, tears came into his eyes after the final results were out—it will be challenging for him to helm the ship of his party and his nation amid troubling waters in the country and on the globe.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.