How Japanese hard power diplomacy is on rise

In a recent move, Japan plans to deploy a medium-range surface-to-air missile unit on Yonaguni Island. The location is the westernmost island of Japan. The strategic move aims to reinforce deterrence and strengthen Japan’s defensive capabilities amid rising regional tension in the Indo-Pacific. It is a part of a broader military build-up across Japan’s southern island chain, reflecting its deepening concerns over China’s expanding military reach and the risk of a Taiwan contingency.

For Japan, the recent deployment could help lower the chance of an armed attack. This article explores the changing trajectory of the China-Japan equation amid this growing concern.

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The Strategic Position and the US Involvement

Yonaguni Island is the endpoint of the Ryukyu Islands. It served as a centre of trade between Japan, China, and Southeast Asia before it was designated as Japanese territory and renamed Okinawa Prefecture in 1879. Geographically, it is approximately 110 kilometres from Taiwan and Japan’s closest permanent outpost to the Taiwan Strait within its effective control.

The island has been strategically used to host a Ground Self-Defence Force camp since 2016. It is approximately seven miles long and three miles across at its widest point. It has two small ports and an airfield. The base already features surveillance radars and electronic warfare units, positioning it as a frontline sentinel in any Taiwan Strait crisis. It has transformed into a vital surveillance hub, equipped with radar that monitors nearby seas and airspace. In 2024, an electronic warfare unit was introduced to disrupt enemy communications and guidance systems.

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The strategic position of Yonaguni, along with bases on Ishigaki and Miyako, is a key node in Japan’s defence posture. While Ishigaki hosts anti-ship missiles, Miyako houses air-surveillance units and ammunition facilities. Furthermore, in the east, Okinawa contains central Japanese and US military installations.

The US presence on the island has reaffirmed the Japan-US alliance in support of remilitarisation and Japan’s evolving defence posture. The US Marine Corps has ramped up operations on the island as part of its First Island Chain strategy, which aims to bolster regional deterrence.

Furthermore, the US military conducted an exercise moving supplies from Okinawa to Yonaguni to simulate establishing a forward-operating base during a crisis. In coordination with Japan’s Self-Defence Forces, the deployments included establishing a Forward Arming and Refuelling Point (FARP) to extend the range of helicopter patrols from the island in October this year. This also marks the first time CH-53E heavy-lift helicopters operated that far southwest in Japan.

Yonaguni Island’s strategic location is crucial to US military strategy due to its position on the maritime route between Taiwan and the East China Sea. It can host US missile systems and anti-submarine capabilities and serve as a staging ground for US and Japanese operations.

The island’s proximity to Taiwan and its port and runway infrastructure make it strategically vital for rapid reinforcement or denial operations against China. Therefore, it serves as a key point for anti-access measures, surveillance, and potential joint operations between the US and Japan during crises in the Taiwan Strait.

The China-Japan Spat

During a parliamentary address earlier this month, PM Takaichi remarked that a Chinese assault on Taiwan, involving battleships and the use of force, could qualify as an “existential threat” under Japan’s pacifist constitution. The weapons, designed to counter incoming aircraft and air-to-ground threats, underscore Japan’s deepening concerns over China’s military expansion in the East China Sea and potential contingencies around Taiwan.

The remark potentially justified the Self-Defence Forces’ intervention and highlighted the rising importance of hard power diplomacy as a critical component of Japanese foreign policy. This drew a sharp response from China. The potential military deployment, coupled with PM Takaichi’s remark, is heightening tension in the region and stoking a military confrontation. The concerns suggest that Japan could, in theory, militarily cooperate with other nations if China attacked Taiwan.

China considers this a violation of the 1972 Japan-China Joint Communique, where Tokyo acknowledged Beijing’s stance on Taiwan. It believes that if Japan attempts armed intervention in the cross-Strait situation, it would constitute an act of aggression, and China will resolutely exercise its right of self-defence under the UN Charter and international law and firmly defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This growing suspicion is extremely dangerous and warrants high vigilance from neighbouring countries and the global community.

Taiwan has responded in a measured but supportive way. It reiterates that bolstering Yonaguni Island’s defences helps maintain security in the Taiwan Strait. It emphasised Japan’s sovereign right to protect its territory without posing threats elsewhere. Taipei deepened defence ties with Tokyo and Washington, including joint exercises, viewing Japan as a bulwark against Beijing’s gray-zone tactics, such as frequent air incursions.

The spat between China and Japan would have far-reaching economic repercussions. The primary sector includes Japan’s vital tourism sector. China is the top source of inbound visitors. In the first half of 2025, it sent nearly 7.5 million travellers, approximately 30 per cent of all foreign arrivals. This equated to over $1 billion in monthly spending by Chinese citizens, fuelled by a depreciating yen. Japan ranked fourth among Chinese outbound destinations last year. This boosted records for sushi feasts, Fuji hikes, and geisha encounters.

However, the recent travel advisory by Beijing urging citizens to avoid Japan due to “personal safety risks” has triggered a market rout. Similarly, China has imposed a ban on seafood imports and halted the release of Japanese movies, calling it a grave violation of international law and diplomatic norms.

Furthermore, the spat creates a fear of a trade war similar to the one in 2010, with Beijing curbing rare-earth exports, or a negative impact on Japanese autos, which are already reeling from Chinese EV dominance.

Conclusion

While Japan faces the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II, ramping up its defence capabilities is inevitable to strengthen its position amid an unstable geopolitical situation. The increasing defence capabilities to protect the lives and peaceful livelihoods of the Japanese people reflect the renewal of Japanese militarism and hard power diplomacy.

Amid increasing concerns over a deteriorating relationship between China and Japan, Yonaguni Island becomes a critical episode. Japan intends to build mutually beneficial, constructive, and stable ties with China and is open to dialogue at various levels.

However, the revival and renewal of China-Japan ties must go beyond diplomatic gestures to bilateral consultations and multilateral diplomatic coordination, including necessary economic and military countermeasures, to arrive at substantive agreements and negotiations that are mutually acceptable.

(The author is Associate Fellow at ‘India’s World’ magazine. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)