 "Japan: Under new PM, expect nuanced change in foreign and defence policies")
Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on September 27, after a runoff with leading lady candidate, Sanae Takaichi. Consequently, Ishiba succeeded Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister of Japan on Tuesday after being formally elected by the Japanese parliament.
Ishiba contested the LDP presidency four times earlier in 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020. His best performance was in 2012 when he won the first round of voting but, in the runoff, was defeated by Shinzo Abe.
This time, in the second round, Ishiba surprisingly turned the tables on Takaichi, who was leading in the first round of the elections. He secured 215 votes, compared to Takaichi’s 194. This is because once the popular vote of the first round was discounted, the prefectural chapters each had one vote, and Ishiba won 26 compared to Takaichi’s 21. The main difference, however, was that Takaichi could not add enough from Members of Parliament who voted for other losing candidates. Large sections of them seem to have voted for Ishiba.
There are important messages from this:
First, Ishiba represents an effort to reform the LDP. A vote for him means that the LDP is serious about creating a perception of reform. Electing a non-conformist, non-faction leader should strengthen the LDP for the elections next month.
Secondly, Kishida dissolved the factions, but the ghosts of the factions continue to haunt. While Takaichi was backed by large Abe faction, in the second round, some of that faction ditched her and went over to Ishiba. This is slightly surprising. Most MPs likely to face a new election would like to abide by a leader who could take them through politically and also bring in financial support. The continuous popular support that Ishiba has drawn has perhaps persuaded many MPs that such popularity could be infectious and help the LDP and consequently the MPs to win back their seats, even if financial resources dry up.
Another important factor is that domestic reform of the party, by reducing the influence of money and factions, could best be achieved by Ishiba. How he chooses senior positions within the party and senior Cabinet members will show whether he kowtows to traditional faction leaders or has a clean break. His new vision for the LDP impressed the people of Japan, who are thirsting for change.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsWhat can India expect from Ishiba?
From all accounts, Ishiba has not been on an official visit to India. He was not in the LDP mainstream for most of this century as the India-Japan relationship intensified under Shinzo Abe. It is unlikely that any visiting Indian leaders have met Ishiba either, because he and Abe were at loggerheads.
Therefore, more than personal understanding, it is a strategic understanding of India that is likely to dominate the Ishiba’s attitude towards India. Ishiba is a nationalist with a strong national security and defence perspective. He believes in greater strategic autonomy for Japan and, in the past, has advocated an ‘Asian NATO’. Due to this, the US was wary of him, but this perspective will certainly develop his relationship with India and Australia further while working more closely with the US, which is the essential requirement of any Japanese leader.
Having missed the Quad Summit and the UN General Assembly, which were attended by former PM Kishida, Ishiba has a ready-made diplomatic agenda. He will not have to choose where to make his first visit, whether to the US or to ASEAN, because the logic of summit season is up to him.
His first likely interaction is going to be at the East Asia Summit and allied meetings in Laos in mid-October. Thereafter, there will be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Peru in mid-November, followed by the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro in quick succession. There is little point in Ishiba heading to the US, which is in the throes of elections.
Ishiba would meet the ASEAN and Quad leaders from Australia and India at the East Asia Summit and G20 summits. The emergence of so many summits actually makes it easier to meet other leaders without necessarily having to go to their countries immediately.
The priority for Japan, of course, would remain its partnership with the US, which is getting deeper and more intense. Japan is now a global partner with a deepening defence role, different from its more junior partner status in earlier years. In association with the United States, the trilateral with South Korea is now more settled.
The Indo-Pacific remains a Japanese priority, and relations with India and Australia would remain important.
Meetings with ASEAN countries where the battle with China is being fought would be intensified. Ishiba will reach out to China to meet Premier Li Qiang at the EAS and Xi Jinping at the G20 or APEC.
A nuanced change in Japan’s foreign or defence policy is anticipated, and the Japanese will continue with increasing their defence expenditure and modernisation.
The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views
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