 "Japan-Philippines Defence Pact: Countering the Dragon, championing new dynamics in South China Sea")
Japan and the Philippines signed a key defence pact on July 8, 2024, that has brought about dynamism in the regional and global politics surrounding the South China Sea dispute and addressed a belligerent China at the helm.
Starting with last year’s visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to the Philippines, negotiations were already underway on a ‘Reciprocal Access Agreement’ with his Filipino counterpart, President Ferdinand Marcos.
The reciprocal agreement, as stated, would make provisions for the entry of troops into each other’s territories for joint military exercises and further bolster defence cooperation. The visit also asserted that Japan would lend patrol vessels, defence equipment, and radars that would strengthen the Philippines’ strategic and lawful enforcement in the South China Sea. Both Japan and the Philippines share a common trajectory of sharing disputes with China in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, respectively.
Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine Secretary of National Defence Gilberto Teodoro signed the Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) during a ceremony in Manila. The RAA, as stated in the official statement, was key to enhancing joint combat training and further bolstering defence cooperation between the two countries.
Additionally, the statement also carried the undertones of confidence expressed by the two countries in shaping such a significant pact, reiterating back to the US-Philippines-Japan Summit, which took place in April this year. The RAA arrives at a crucial juncture against the backdrop of escalating tensions between the Philippines and China over the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Other key elements of the pact include the exchange of defence equipment and technology, mostly related to air and coastal surveillance, and shall build upon Japan’s Official Security Initiative. The RAA can be almost viewed as a convergence to uphold the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. However, this pact needs to be ratified by both countries’ legislatures to come into effect.
The Growing Grey Zone Warfare
Asia’s location, as well as the importance of the seas in regional security and ties, have allowed for the emergence of unique indigenous grey zone strategies. In this view, China prefers unorthodox measures in sovereignty conflicts where the US casts a shadow while projecting military supremacy to dissuade regional states. The best example would be the South China Sea dispute and cross-strait relations with Taiwan.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsChina claims possession of the infamous ‘nine-dash line,’ which covers approximately 90 per cent of the South China Sea, including the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal. These island chains are equally claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines. Over the last decade, Beijing has implemented a carefully planned grey zone strategy that includes the use of civil and maritime militias, the construction of dual-use infrastructure that can be repurposed for military enclaves such as ports and airfields, information tactics, and the reinterpretation of international laws. Chinese fishermen, purportedly unrelated to the government or military forces, have been harassing foreign vessels and denying access to territorial seas and economic activity under the guise of acting on their own initiative to ultimately ‘enforce laws’. These tactics help to exert psychological pressure and gradually test the boundaries and responses of rivals.
Concurrently, China has also attempted to legitimise these territorial claims through information strategies such as disseminating the map with its interpreted nine-dash line. While Beijing remains in conformity with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), it disregards the 2016 arbitration in favour of the Philippines. China and Japan have had a longstanding disagreement over islands in the East China Sea, with Japanese officials accusing Chinese coast guard vessels of straying over their claimed territories numerous times this year. Meanwhile, Chinese and Philippine coast guard and navy vessels have engaged in a series of increasing incidents in the South China Sea in recent months.
The latest escalation occurred last month when Chinese Coast Guards detained and destroyed two Philippine ships while resupplying an outpost on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, injuring military personnel. Last month at the Shangri La Dialogue, the Filipino President warned China not to cross the red line, which could amount to major escalation in the region. The warning came against the backdrop of several grey zone tactics being deployed by China in the region.
Implications of the RAA
The reciprocal agreement is key to understanding the evolving security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and taking actions to mitigate a full escalation of a war-like situation in the region against a belligerent China. Japan, although not a claimant in the South China Sea dispute, has now enticed itself to not only protect its allies but to pursue a more proactive foreign policy under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
After the successful Japan-US-Philippine Summit in April this year, the three countries pledged to ‘oppose and resolutely respond’ to any attempts by China to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the South China Sea and East China Sea. The RAA is monumental in accelerating cooperation between Japan and the Philippines. Much of the attention has been placed on the Philippines’ rapid development of security ties with its key ally, the United States, but Japan has also played an essential role in the Philippines’ strategy.
Japan’s first RAA with a member of ASEAN will reduce limits on personnel transfers between the Japan Self-Defence Forces (SDF) and the Philippine military for cooperative drills and disaster relief operations in their respective countries.
After the RAA takes effect, Japan will be able to participate as a full member in the large-scale Balikatan military exercise, which the Philippines and the United States conduct annually in the Southeast Asian nation. The SDF has previously joined in an observer capacity. Additionally, it will promote interoperability between the two countries’ forces.
Another perspective on the implementation of the RAA resonates with the Taiwan factor. Both Japan and the Philippines share close proximity to Taiwan and also express perturbed concerns about the use of potential kinetic force by China in the likelihood of the island country’s invasion.
The RAA sends a clear message to Beijing about emerging dynamics and security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. The Chinese response to the RAA referenced Japan’s history as a ‘colonial power in South Asia.’ Lin Jian Spokesperson responded, “During World War Two, Japan was responsible for invasion and colonial rule of Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines. Japan should seriously reflect on its history of aggression and be cautious in words and deeds in the field of military security.”
Although the RAA appears to be a welcome step between Japan and the Philippines, it also underscores an important element of how key US allies in the region may want to move out of the ‘security umbrella architecture’ and partake equally in regional defence and deterrence. It is the time that countries like Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea should realise that solely relying on the US may not be a viable option as Washington is engulfed in other conflicts in other regions.
Arijita Sinha Roy is Research Assistant with the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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