 "Israel’s ‘precision strike’ on Iran shows Gaza war will outlast Biden’s presidency")
Israel finally struck Iran in the early hours of October 26 when it launched multiple waves of missile strikes into Iran, targeting ‘only military targets’, as per initial inputs. This came about just as the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, wound up his visit to the region. He was in Israel and Saudi Arabia on October 23 to discuss modalities and possibilities to end the war in Gaza. This was his 11th visit to the region since the war broke out on October 7 last year, when Hamas launched a terror attack into Israel.
On each of the previous visits, Blinken has not only carried messages from US President Joe Biden but has been at the forefront of the efforts to end the war in Gaza. With the US presidential elections scheduled for November 5th, this was perhaps his last visit to the region before the elections. Based on what results the elections throw up, the future role that the US would play in this war would also get crystallised. Time is therefore running out in the present term, and Blinken’s intense engagement and shuttle diplomacy with Israel and the regional leaders is desperately aimed at seeking a ceasefire to end a bloody war that has already claimed 42,000 lives in Gaza and over 2,500 lives in Lebanon.
Speaking after meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 23rd, he stressed the fact that Israel should use its tactical victories against Hamas and Hezbollah in recent times (especially the elimination of top leadership) and pursue an “enduring strategic success” in Gaza, adding that “there really are two things left to do: get the hostages home and bring the war to an end with an understanding of what will follow”. He later met the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, where they again discussed options and “common efforts to end the conflicts in the region and establish greater peace and security”.
The US, along with Egypt and Qatar, have been at the forefront of ceasefire talks, but nothing has come out due to hardened stands taken by both Israel and Hamas. The only temporary relief came about in November last year when a seven-day temporary humanitarian truce from November 24 to 30 was observed and some hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe Previous Attempts at Ceasefire—The Biden Plan
Among many other ceasefire deals proposed, the most concrete ceasefire effort came about in May this year when a deal proposed by Biden was presented to both parties. The plan proposed a progressive three-phase ceasefire, which Biden said will “bring all the hostages home, ensure Israel’s security, create a better day after in Gaza without Hamas in power, and set the stage for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike”.
Phase One of the plan sought an immediate “full and complete ceasefire” lasting for six weeks. During this period, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) were to withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza. Hamas was to release a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded, and several US citizens, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. This phase would have continued even if further negotiations to end the war lasted longer than the planned six weeks. During this time, humanitarian assistance too would surge, with 600 trucks carrying aid into Gaza every single day.
The second phase had called for the Israeli army to fully withdraw from Gaza in exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers. The third and final phase was earmarked for a major reconstruction of Gaza to include rebuilding its cities, homes, schools, and hospitals that were destroyed by war. Regional Arab countries and the international community would contribute and participate in it in a manner that does not allow Hamas to rearm.
Israel initially confirmed that Biden’s proposal had been concurred by it, but the very next day, it put out a statement that Israel would not agree to a ceasefire unless Hamas’s military and governing capabilities are totally destroyed, all hostages are freed, and Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. On June 10, even the UN Security Council endorsed the US-sponsored Gaza ceasefire resolution, with 14 countries voting for the resolution, with Russia being the lone country that abstained. However, with Israel backing out, the proposal was left unimplemented.
The Bridging Proposal
Later, following a joint statement by the leaders of the US, Qatar, and Egypt on August 9, calling for resumption of talks in Doha on August 15, the talks convened. During the talks, a new ‘bridging proposal’ was presented to Israel and Hamas. Hamas rejected the ‘bridging proposal’ offered, as it added new and unacceptable conditions. The main sticking points were Israel’s demands that the IDF remain deployed in the Philadelphi Corridor, which runs along the Gaza-Egypt border, to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons into Gaza. Israel was also not ready to withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor, which its forces established during the war, separating northern and southern Gaza. The bridging proposal also required Hamas to release the most vulnerable civilian hostages while the parties would negotiate the implementation of the second and third phases with no “guarantees” to Hamas from Israel or mediators.
Most recently, on October 21, as per media reports, the director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service presented Israel’s Shin Bet chief an idea for a “small” hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza. The deal would entail the release of a small number of hostages held by Hamas in return for a few days of ceasefire in Gaza. The “small deal” would then continue with renewed negotiations over a more comprehensive hostage and ceasefire agreement. The deal has not, however, been presented officially yet, nor was it mentioned during Blinken’s recent visit to the region.
In the midst of all these efforts, the war continues unabated. Israel continues to bomb remaining places in the Gaza Strip in an effort to eliminate even the last possible threat from Hamas. Its forces are buoyed by the elimination of Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar on October 16 and want to drive home the advantage. In southern Lebanon, intense battles continue between Hezbollah and the Israeli forces. Despite huge losses suffered due to the elimination of top leadership and a large part of the communication network, Hezbollah remains potent and continues to inflict losses and damage to Israel. The continued missile strikes in Haifa, areas around Tel Aviv, and even a successful drone strike at PM Netanyahu’s residence in the town of Caesarea on October 19 clearly indicate that Hezbollah remains effective.
Conclusion
Various proposals to end the war in Gaza have failed so far. The Israeli counter strike on October 26 could lead to massive escalation if Iran decides to retaliate with force. Just as he was in the region before this strike, US Secretary of State Blinken was present in the region when the ‘bridging proposal’ was presented in August and even when ‘he was taken by surprise’ when Hezbollah cadres were rocked by the pager attacks on September 17. On each of the 11 occasions, he has attempted to bridge the gaps between the warring parties and end the war. His shuttle diplomacy has, however, so far failed to convince Israel to call off the war. Hamas too remains defiant and refuses to lay down arms. As time runs out on the current US presidency, unless there is a miraculous development, the war looks destined to drag on for a few more weeks and months. Meanwhile, every day brings news of more and more innocent civilians getting killed in Gaza and Lebanon.
Col Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been Director in Military Intelligence as well as Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. His X handle is @rajeevidsa. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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