Israeli strikes on Iran show it was never only about Tehran going nuclear

After a long wait and watch and in a virtual repeat of the initiation of the ‘12 Day War’ in June 2025. Israel launched pre-emptive strikes into Iran in broad daylight on February 28. Announcing it, the Israeli Defence Minister stated that “The State of Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran to remove threats to the State of Israel,” adding that a state of emergency has been declared in Israel. While an attack on Iran was imminent, given the massive military buildup taking place in the region in the past few days, the pre-emptive strike has not come as a surprise to all.

A Repeat of June 2025

This strike is almost like a mirror image of what happened in June 2025 when Israel struck pre-emptively on June 13, initiating the ‘12 Day War’. Why is it important? Because the nuclear talks between Iran and the US were progressing well, and Iran and the US were scheduled for their fifth round of talks on a possible nuclear deal on June 15. Obviously, there were no talks thereafter once the war broke out. Also, prior to the previous war, in March 2025, in an intelligence assessment by the Director of National Intelligence of the US, Tulsi Gabbard said, “The intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.”

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How is it similar this time? Just yesterday, on February 27, after the end of the latest round of talks in Geneva to negotiate a deal and prevent a war, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi announced that Iran has agreed to significant breakthrough concessions in indirect nuclear talks with the United States, aiming to prevent further conflict. Iran had reportedly agreed to the following:

• Zero Enriched Uranium Stockpiling: Iran has agreed to a policy of “zero accumulation” and “zero stockpiling” of enriched uranium.

• Down-blending Existing Material: Iran agreed to degrade its current, higher-enriched stockpiles into fuel, allowing for full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

• “Never, Ever” a Bomb: The above two steps will ensure that Iran will not possess a nuclear bomb, making this an unprecedented “very important breakthrough”.

As per this, Iran and the US were closer than ever to reaching a nuclear deal which would have ensured that Iran never gets the nuclear weapon. However, Iran had made it clear that its right to enrichment of uranium, being a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and its ballistic missile programme cannot be part of any negotiations. For Israel, however, the threat posed by its ballistic missile was equal to, if not more important than, the nuclear deal, something that Israel’s leadership had often openly spoken of. The next round of ‘technical talks’ on how to take the discussions and broad understandings of Geneva forward was to be held in Vienna next week, which now looks unlikely. And, therefore, just like in June 2025, the possibility of a potential deal has been buried by these pre-emptive strikes.

What happens now?

As per the initial inputs in this developing story, the initial waves of strikes from Israel have struck more than 30 key locations in Iran, including the military and political HQs in Tehran. The supreme leader as well as key military leaders and the president have escaped unhurt from the initial wave of strikes. In fact, shortly after Iran commenced its counterstrike, the Supreme Leader issued a statement that the response would be massive and that the Jewish entity (Israel) will have to face the consequences.

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Unlike last time in June 2025, Iran has been prompt in its response. As promised, it has not only targeted Israel but also American bases in Bahrain, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait. While most of the missiles have been intercepted, some have hit the targets.

What now?

Unlike last time, this is not likely to end as a 10-12 day war unless the Iranian regime capitulates or surrenders, chances of which are slim. In a recent interview, the Iranian Foreign Minister had said that going by the previous experience of targeted assassinations by Israel, the Iranian regime has already nominated four sets of military and political leadership to cater for such a situation. Plus, unlike countries like Libya, Iraq, Syria, etc., which were governed by a single autocratic leader, Iran has a well-structured, vertically and horizontally dispersed leadership, which makes it extremely difficult for it to capitulate. As regards the Supreme Leader, his assassination might play right into the Iranian game plan, as he would be elevated to the status of an ultimate martyr, further solidifying the regime’s strength. Plus, as per many reports, he has already nominated a few successors for such situations.

Iranian counter-strikes have already started making their mark. Despite the most modern and fail-safe missile defence, initial reports indicate that some Iranian missiles have already hit the Israeli cities of Haifa and Galilee. Iranian cities and targets too are getting hit in larger numbers, given their weak air and missile defence.

Looking Ahead

The situation looks grim and could worsen over the days. President Trump, in a short televised address, has acknowledged the US role in initiating the war and has tried to prepare the Americans for body bags returning home, saying that the US will lose some men and women in fighting for the larger cause. For President Trump, fighting lowering approval ratings, the Supreme Court judgement against his unilateral tariffs and the scandals broken open by the Epstein files, this war is an attempt to divert the attention and build on his campaign for the midterm election later this year.

In Israel, there is a sense of vindication of the theory that it has been propagating, especially for PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who is scheduled to face elections later in the year and faces multiple charges against him in the courts. In fact, soon after Israel struck Iran, one of the court hearings against him today was postponed.

For Iran, there is a sense of ‘we told you so’, saying that the talks over the nuclear programme were an eyewash. However, unlike last time, Iran is better prepared this time. Its initial strikes indicate that it will not exercise any restraint in the war. For Iran, it is only about getting some of the missiles through the missile shield to hit targets in Israel and the US bases because it knows that the threshold for absorbing damage and casualties in the US and Israel is very low. It is also likely to embolden Hezbollah to join Iran in striking Israel from the North, whereas Hamas could revoke the ceasefire in Gaza, extending Israel militarily. Houthis in Yemen have already announced support for Iran. Not only can they fire missiles at Israel and US bases, but they could again block the Red Sea route, imposing huge penalties on global sea trade. Coupled with it, if this time, Iran tries to restrict traffic or block the Strait of Hormuz, the oil prices could skyrocket in no time.

For the region and the world, the situation looks extremely grim. The pre-emptive strikes by the US and Israel may have unleashed the fiercest conflict ever in the region. The only hope is to see how and when this can be contained and an off-ramp achieved.

(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)