Iran’s gets a ‘reformist’ President, but here’s a catch: He is also a ‘loyalist’

The Islamic Republic of Iran went through an untimely presidential election following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. On June 5, Iranians voted in the second round of the election. They elected Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old, the only reformist candidate out of six chosen by the Guardian Council as the President of the Islamic Republic.

On June 28, in the first round of the election with a historically low turnout, when more than 60 per cent of Iranian voters abstained from the election, Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili qualified for the second round, where they received about 42.5 per cent and 38.7 per cent votes respectively. In the second round, the turnout increased to 49.5 per cent, where Pezeshkian secured 53.7 per cent or 16.3 million votes, defeating hardliner Jalili’s 13.5 million votes.

Pezeshkian emerged as the sole reformist contender, a concession to reformist voters’ demands for representation. Despite his limited popularity, he was selected over more popular prospective reformist candidates by the Guardian Council. He is a reformer who is also a loyalist. No wonder, in his first public speech after the presidential poll results at the Imam Khomeini Shrine in Tehran on July 6, he credited the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s “guidance” for the “peaceful election process”. He said, “During this peaceful election process, with votes accurately counted, I must first thank the Leader of Islamic Revolution. Without his guidance, I do not believe my name would have emerged from these ballots. It was through his leadership that we were able to reach this point.”

Born in 1954, Pezeshkian’s career began as a conscription officer under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and later included leadership roles at Tabriz University of Medical Sciences. Pezeshkian’s political journey started in 1997 when he joined Mohammad Khatami’s administration as Deputy Health Minister, eventually becoming Health Minister from 2001 to 2005.

Throughout his career, Pezeshkian served as governor of Piranshahr and Naghadeh counties and was elected to the Iranian parliament five times, representing Tabriz. He also held the position of First Deputy Speaker from 2016 to 2020. Despite unsuccessful bids in the 2013 and 2021 presidential elections, Pezeshkian persevered to win in 2024.

A strong advocate for ethnic minority rights, particularly for Azeris, Kurds, and Baluchis, Pezeshkian supports the implementation of Article 15 of the Iranian Constitution. This stance, along with his diverse background, played a crucial role in his electoral success. His campaign garnered support from reformist figures like ex-President Khatami and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, highlighting his appeal across various political factions and ethnic groups in Iran.

Tohid Asadi, a professor at Tehran University, told Al Jazeera that Pezeshkian’s victory showed that many Iranians are interested in “a shift in domestic and foreign policies”.

Expectations

On the domestic front, Pezeshkian’s presidency is expected to prioritise rebuilding public trust and fostering national unity. His approach may include promoting more inclusive governance by incorporating diverse voices, particularly those of women and ethnic minorities. Pezeshkian will likely uphold the right to protest and encourage open dialogue with students and intellectuals, aiming to bridge the gap between the government and the people.

The low turnouts in elections show the lost faith of Iranians in the Iranian political system; his reformist approach may lead to restoring the lost trust of people in the system. He plans to implement the leader’s general policies, including the Seventh Development Plan, while maintaining support for religious democracy. These efforts aim to reduce political conflicts and increase political participation and voter turnout in future elections.

Iran’s foreign policy is decided by the entire establishment, mainly at the Supreme National Security Council, which comprises representatives of the government, the armed forces, the Iranian supreme leader, and the parliament. Nevertheless, Pezeshkian is anticipated to pursue a more balanced and engaging approach. A key focus will be reviving the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) to improve relations with neighbouring countries and the international community. He aims to strengthen ties with neighbouring nations to create a unified and prosperous region. He seeks FATF membership to address economic challenges and improve Iran’s standing in international trade.

While maintaining a strategic focus on the Palestinian issue and opposition to Israel, Pezeshkian advocates for developing reciprocal relationships with both Western and Eastern powers, particularly China and Russia. This balanced approach may lead to reduced international isolation and potentially attract foreign investment, although challenges with Western powers, especially regarding the nuclear programme, may persist.

The trajectory of the Iranian foreign policy would significantly depend on the results of the upcoming US presidential election in November, which will once again see incumbent Joe Biden facing off against Donald Trump. A Trump victory would likely maintain the status quo. One cannot expect any kind of change, any talks between the two sides, or any change in the present course of action.

On the economic front, Pezeshkian’s policies are expected to focus on reducing inflation and boosting economic growth through international negotiations and openness to global economic relations. He plans to implement tax reforms to prevent evasion and create a more equitable system while also reforming subsidy distribution to benefit lower-income groups more effectively. Pezeshkian advocates for properly implementing Article 44 of the Constitution to strengthen the private sector and cooperatives while maintaining government control in essential sectors like healthcare.

His approach to the stock market involves relying on expert opinions and scientific evidence, and he favours market-based solutions for housing problems rather than direct government intervention. While these policies aim to improve economic conditions, their success will largely depend on the ability to navigate international sanctions and internal resistance to reforms.

Challenges ahead

Pezeshkian’s presidency faces significant challenges in realising these objectives. He must navigate the complex balance between reform aspirations and conservative expectations within Iran’s political system. Internationally, he needs to manage relations with Western powers while safeguarding Iran’s strategic interests. Implementing economic reforms will require overcoming entrenched interests and structural obstacles.

The success of his reform agenda will largely depend on his ability to build consensus among various political factions, effectively implement economic policies, and skillfully navigate both domestic and international pressures. While his approach suggests the potential for positive change, systemic limitations and external factors may constrain the extent of this change.

The Iranian political system is a highly dynamic and complex mechanism in which the President is only one among many actors influencing decisions. The President is the head of the government and is responsible for the country’s day-to-day affairs. In contrast, the supreme leader is both a political and spiritual guide of the country, who makes final decisions on foreign policy, domestic policy and economy, leaving little room for the President. One must, therefore, keep these constraints in mind before expecting ‘revolutionary’ changes in Iran.